Thank you for your superb post, Surfing. It shows that not only do you have the ability to be entertaining but you excercise that ability to the fullest.
Maybe because I'm used to working with details like capacity management, assessing bottlenecks in operations and ways to get around them the current airport situation seems stupidly obvious to me.
So I'll try and explain it as if I was talking to someone who hasn't got a clue what the concept of "capacity" means.
If you have a car with 5 seats, you can fit 5 people in it.
If you a bus with 40 seats you can seat 40 people in it.
If you have a car with 5 seats, (even if the boot is big enough for 20 ppl) of the 40 people you have, legally you are only allowed to take 5. You can try and squeeze in a few more but the more you squeeze in, the less comfortable people are and eventually, no more will fit in it.
Now, applying this basic concept to Natal airport. The runways are fine. You could land loads more planes there with no problem. But then you'd have all those extra millions of people trying to use the infrastructure of an airport built to cater to 1.3 million passengers.
Lets say you land double the amount of planes. You now have 3 million passengers trying to use the facilities built for 1.3 million. How is it hard to comprehend that this is simply not possible? The issue isn't the runways and (as far as I know) no one has ever said it was.
Think of the infrastructures built for 1.3 mil which would have to cater to 3 mil.
(just a few of them)
Passport control
Airport general Security
Air traffic control (control tower)
Toilets
Check-in counters
Customs
Security checks for boarding passengers
Gates
Waiting rooms
Shops
Restaurants
Baggage handling
Staff toilets, changing rooms, canteens, security, etc (staff would have to increase proportionally to passengers)
Now, you may well argue that they could "just increase the terminals size and facilities of Natal airport". However that is obviously not going to be free. The government and Infraero have an obligation to assess any investment made and determine if the capital is best used in one project vs another.
Considering they need a new cargo airport for the region and considering that of the 4 airports which welcome 97% of arrivals to the Northeast region, together they are currently working at a capacity of over 100% (15.300.097 arrivals for a max capacity of 15.000.000 passengers) it would be an easy argument that the region as a whole (Northeast of Brazil) needs a new airport which will not only handle the need for arrivals but also cater to Cargo requirements of the country and the region.
That way instead of each airport (Recife, Fortaleza, Natal and Salvador) "just increasing the size of their terminals" - the project was approved to build a new airport to cover the demand of the Northeast as a whole. Originally it was meant to be built in Recife but was then moved to Natal and the land is already being cleared by the army. You can see the clearing for the runways it on Google Earth ffs!
This was the suggested solution and the approved one. An airport is to be built in Natal which will increase passenger capacity of the state to 5.000.000 which increases the capacity of the Northeast by 3.700.000. This airport terminals are designed in a modular fashion which if deemed necessary, can be extended to 15.000.000 and at a later stage if the demand continues to increase - to 40.000.000
Now, I believe in the 5 mil in the short term, accept that the 15 mil is a possibility in the medium term but personally have doubts about the 40 mil in the medium to long term. However, the fact that the terminals are being designed with that in mind is a very comforting reassurance.
Let me know if that was simple to see and understand?
Recife: 2007 arrivals: 4.188.081 - Max: 5.000.000 - 84%
Fortaleza: 2007 arrivals: 3.613.634 - Max: 3.000.000 - 120%
Natal: 2007 arrivals: 1.577.809 - Max: 1.300.000 - 121%
Salvador: 2007 arrivals: 5.920.573 - Max: 6.000.000 - 99%
Total: 2007 arrivals: 15.300.097 - Max: 15.000.000 - 100%