Blindness and stupidity when investing in Brazil

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cwashiii

New Member
Hi Cwashii,

The market in Sao Paolo has performed very well in recent years and a purchase there should yield good long-term capital growth. As Michael said there are plently of good areas to choose from and a continuous supply of interesting new developments coming onto the market. The weather can get a bit chilly during the winter for a week or two but bear in mind that the temperature can top 30 C on some days too.
Thanks for the info. I'm looking to buy like a hotel condo where I can rent it out and of course stay there when I visit the in laws. Are Hotel Condo purchases common in Sao Paulo?
 
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Celt

New Member
Hi,

According to my wife who hails from Sao Paolo, hotels condos are very common there. Search for "flats" or "apart hotels" on google.
 
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RalphJ

New Member
Hi ralphj,

Interesting post buddy. Im 100% behind what you and surfinbrazil have said. Its great to hear someone who obviously lives in the country speak their mind rather than agents who sit thousands of miles away predicting. They should have to prove and not try and make you feel guilty for speaking out.

Regards

Westmids33

Cheers to you Westmids33!:)
 
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surfingbrazil

New Member
Well, here you have fresh data about the INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS at Natal, Augusto Severo International Airport:

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19/01/2008 - Tribuna do Norte

O fluxo de passageiros no aeroporto Augusto Severo, em Parnamirim, aumentou 13,4% em 2007, acima das médias nordestina (11,1%) e nacional (8,2%). De acordo com os dados da Infraero, o desempenho foi puxado pelos embarques e desembarques domésticos, uma vez que o movimento de pessoas transportadas em vôos internacionais caiu 12,2%, enquanto no país e no Nordeste esse percentual foi positivo (3,6% e 0,7%, respectivamente). A Secretaria Estadual de Turismo (Setur) garante que intensificará o investimento em divulgação no exterior.
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a 12,2 % drop !

Not exactly encouraging news for the "luxury ressorts", "guaranteed rentals", " new huge airports#.... and so on.
 
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RalphJ

New Member
Well, here you have fresh data about the INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS at Natal, Augusto Severo International Airport:

################
19/01/2008 - Tribuna do Norte

O fluxo de passageiros no aeroporto Augusto Severo, em Parnamirim, aumentou 13,4% em 2007, acima das médias nordestina (11,1%) e nacional (8,2%). De acordo com os dados da Infraero, o desempenho foi puxado pelos embarques e desembarques domésticos, uma vez que o movimento de pessoas transportadas em vôos internacionais caiu 12,2%, enquanto no país e no Nordeste esse percentual foi positivo (3,6% e 0,7%, respectivamente). A Secretaria Estadual de Turismo (Setur) garante que intensificará o investimento em divulgação no exterior.
##############################

a 12,2 % drop !

Not exactly encouraging news for the "luxury ressorts", "guaranteed rentals", " new huge airports#.... and so on.

And most of that can be contributed to the air disasters that occurred in Brazil over the past 18 months and the "bagunça" that is known as "air traffic control" in Brazil. Delays and cancellations are still "normal" here in Brazil but at least an honest effort is presently being made to correct the huge holes Brazil formerly had/has in it's system. It only took 2 plane crashes and close to 400 people getting killed to achieve it.:(
 
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wolfgang

New Member
Well, here you have fresh data about the INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS at Natal, Augusto Severo International Airport:

################
19/01/2008 - Tribuna do Norte

O fluxo de passageiros no aeroporto Augusto Severo, em Parnamirim, aumentou 13,4% em 2007, acima das médias nordestina (11,1%) e nacional (8,2%). De acordo com os dados da Infraero, o desempenho foi puxado pelos embarques e desembarques domésticos, uma vez que o movimento de pessoas transportadas em vôos internacionais caiu 12,2%, enquanto no país e no Nordeste esse percentual foi positivo (3,6% e 0,7%, respectivamente). A Secretaria Estadual de Turismo (Setur) garante que intensificará o investimento em divulgação no exterior.
##############################

a 12,2 % drop !

Not exactly encouraging news for the "luxury ressorts", "guaranteed rentals", " new huge airports#.... and so on.
Great.Well that's the sex tourists gone then!:)
 
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surfingbrazil

New Member
A DROP IN INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS TO NATAL IN 2007

The 12,2% drop in international arrivals to Natal, the 0,7% increase to Fortaleza and a meager 3,6 % increase overall in Brazil is simply confirming my very first post in this thread.

Brazil it is NOT a major tourist power.

Despite the politicians and real estate agents wishful thinking this is the real world.

Are you planning to “invest” in a off-plan “ideal resort” with “rental guarantee”in
the middle of the boom docks….think again.
 
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JMBroad

New Member
Well, looking at the big picture, I'm not running for the door just yet.

Growth in international arrivals to Natal from 2003 to 2007 (full year) is still 26% year on year, despite the 12.2% drop last year, with close to 220.000 in 2007 compared to just over 100.000 in 2003. A drop does concern me, but not in a panic just yet.

More concerning to me is that Natal airport is now operating at 121% of official capacity (close to 1.6 mill arrivals - 1.3 mill capacity),Fortaleza at 120% capacity and Salvador at 99% capacity (despite airport capacity being doubled in 2000). Overall the top 4 states airports (which are historically responsible for 97% of international arrivals for the Northeast) are now operating at close to 100% which means growth should slow considerably unless a new airport is built in one of the states sometime soon.

However considering that in August 2007, ytd growth in travel expenditure for Brazil was among the highest global figures, at 33%, it will be interesting to see what that 12% decrease did when looking at ytd tourism expenditure figures. (ie did the 12% less tourists manage to spend more money or less)

Re. SurfingBrazil - Not a major tourist power compared to what?

Compared to Uk, France, Turkey or Italy - You are correct.

Compared to its South American neighbours - Brazil welcomes more tourists each year than Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela and Suriname combined. The other two larger players in South America, Argentina and Chile, only just beat Brazil when added together. Separately, they don't come close.

Brazil almost welcomes the same amount of International arrivals as Central America. Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama all together welcome less tourists than Brazil. The arrivals in Costa Rica just push the area over Brazil's figures.

Of the whole of the Americas, Brazil welcomes the 4th most amount of tourists, after the US, Canada and Mexico.

However, yes, in comparison to Global figures, Brazil has a long long way to go. Top 25 tourism destinations each receive almost 8 million international arrivals per year. Brazil is still at 5 million, but growth has been almost 10% a year in recent years.

(Source: UNWTO)
 
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wolfgang

New Member
Can the concept of investing "ahead of the curve" really be so difficult for some to come to terms with?
The only plausible explanation is that it is a peculiar idiosyncracy of the negative mindset that renders it totally incapable of comprehending that those who have chosen to invest in Brazil have the vision to perceive it as what it undoubtedly has the potential to become, and not necessarily what it is at present.:)
 
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JMBroad

New Member
Can the concept of investing "ahead of the curve" really be so difficult for some to come to terms with?
The only plausible explanation is that it is a peculiar idiosyncracy of the negative mindset that renders it totally incapable of comprehending that those who have chosen to invest in Brazil have the vision to perceive it as what it undoubtedly has the potential to become, and not necessarily what it is at present.:)
Hear hear :)
 
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deedee1

New Member
:)Hi all,

I second that also!!!!!!!!!!

Some people are pesimistic and some are optomists, some can see the bigger picture and others cant see past their own nose!!!

But brazil is changing and it make take along time to get there but the fact is it IS CHANGING FOR THE BETTER!!!!!!

Some may think that the optimists are wearing rose tinted glasses- But everyone has a right to make there own decisions and make up their own minds and opinions on things and situations!!!

Take care all-D :)
 
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surfingbrazil

New Member
” Ahead of the curve”, ”optimism, ” pessimist”…….
This is getting very philosophical.
Let us stay on topic.

Well I am realistic, and, let me remind you that I do believe in Brazil’s future, that I know the country very well and that I did invest already in real estate in Natal.

However it does not mean that everything is going to work.
They are plenty of scams around waiting for the blind “investor”.
To make people believe that between Natal and San Miguel do Gostoso are going to be 200.000 tourists’ beds in the near future is one of them.

Let us be serious!

200.000 beds based in 80% occupancy rate = 160.000 beds
160.000 beds x 365 days = 58.400.000 beds/ day
58.400.000 beds/day divided by 14 days (average sojourn) =4.171.428 tourists

4 millions “new tourists”! Are you nuts?

Moreover, about capacity o Natal airport, I said before “….because the existing airport, Augusto Severo Int. Airport, is excellent and operates only at 25% of its capacity”

Id does indeed… Based in European aviation and logistical standards: that is one landing or takeoff every 4 or 5 minutes
Politicians in Brazil say that it “saturated” when the total arrivals at Natal airport are maximum about 30 or 40 aircrafts per day.

Again one more proof of Brazilian incompetence.

And let us not compare Brazil with Bolivia. For Gods sake, stay on topic…
Who want to buy a second residence in Morales Bolivia?
 
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deedee1

New Member
Hi all,

I appreciate your figures and they are very interesting!!

But it doesnt mean that in 5-10 year time this will be unachieveable - in fact I think it could be all things considered!!!

I mean currently brazil is become a fast and growing popular destination for the USA and canada!

Other south american countries also travel there and not forget to add the huge buzz and demand from europe happening now!!!

Also with the world cup on the doorstep this will increase dramatically investors and development from all over the world!!!

As we all know that huge events like any sporting world cup or olympics for arguments sake DOES ATTRACT MANY PEOPLE!!!!!!!

BUT YES the whole underelying factor is WE NEED MORE AIRCRAFTS AND MORE FLIGHTS FOR BRAZIL!!!!

Take care-D
 
A

ady1231

New Member
hi, where about in fortaleza, are you selling? You know flexias beach?
 
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Golfingworld

New Member
Surfing, you sound more like me than I do...well done, agree entirely with your points.

I agree entirely with what you say, more people travel through East Midlands Airport which is a kip in a field near Nottingham that mainly runs parcels, than travel through Recife/Fortaleza/Natal in a year! A 26% growth sounds a lot but not when only 10 people arrive! Some people seem to be looking at Brazil through rose tinted glasses and when the likes of us highlight the real story they talk to us like we are crazy! If I rememebr correctly, you know a bit about the tourist industry...and more people stopped going to Lloret de Mar in the last year then went to Brazil in the last 10! It is important that outside potential investors see these reality comments, so they don't think brazil is the promised land! As for the World Cup, they are 'aving a laugh, a footballs fans worst nightmare to get around the country and anyway, most will be off the the South East and not the North East, so this is another pipe dream. Get real everyone.
 
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RalphJ

New Member
But it doesnt mean that in 5-10 year time this will be unachieveable - in fact I think it could be all things considered!!!

I mean currently brazil is become a fast and growing popular destination for the USA and canada!

Sorry Deedee, but americans are tourists in Brazil, VERY few look to buy here. Brazil is a much more appealing market to Europeans than Americans, and it's always been that way.

And although I like your optimistic outlook, making statements like, "Well, in 5-10 years XXX is achievable...", well of course it is. Anything is achievable. The question is....is it probable? And one needs to look at recent history to decide if the people that can make it achievable are willing to do so or to allow it to happen.
 
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michaelbush

New Member
I am not sure of the exact figures but I do not believe that the existing airport has more than around 10 flights per day! Apart from Tap who arrive daily at around 8pm ish, (if not delayed) there are I believe charters from the UK, Amsterdam, Madrid, Stockholm, and Milan once a week. I am sure if I have missed something and am incorrect in the numbers of flights per day, I will be corrected. But there are certianly not 30 flights per day!
 
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JMBroad

New Member
Moreover, about capacity o Natal airport, I said before “….because the existing airport, Augusto Severo Int. Airport, is excellent and operates only at 25% of its capacity”

Id does indeed… Based in European aviation and logistical standards: that is one landing or takeoff every 4 or 5 minutes
Politicians in Brazil say that it “saturated” when the total arrivals at Natal airport are maximum about 30 or 40 aircrafts per day.
Fernando Fernandes - Secretary of Tourism said:
Segundo os números da Infraero, no ano passado 1,57 milhão de passageiros passaram pelo Augusto Severo - acima da capacidade
Translation: According to the data from Infraero, last year 1.57 million passengers passed through Augusto Severo airport - over the capacity
- Source:19/01/2008 - Tribuna do Norte

Capacity: 1.300.000 passengers/annum
2007 arrivals: 1.577.809 passengers/annum
Source: Infraero official data

25% of it's capacity? Harumpf.
 
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JMBroad

New Member
Surfing, you sound more like me than I do...well done, agree entirely with your points.

I agree entirely with what you say, more people travel through East Midlands Airport which is a kip in a field near Nottingham that mainly runs parcels, than travel through Recife/Fortaleza/Natal in a year! A 26% growth sounds a lot but not when only 10 people arrive! Some people seem to be looking at Brazil through rose tinted glasses and when the likes of us highlight the real story they talk to us like we are crazy! If I rememebr correctly, you know a bit about the tourist industry...and more people stopped going to Lloret de Mar in the last year then went to Brazil in the last 10! It is important that outside potential investors see these reality comments, so they don't think brazil is the promised land! As for the World Cup, they are 'aving a laugh, a footballs fans worst nightmare to get around the country and anyway, most will be off the the South East and not the North East, so this is another pipe dream. Get real everyone.
This is the kind of post I was referring to when I said you sometimes get it as wrong as can be. You just totally agreed with someone who said that Augusto Severo airport is welcoming 25% of its capacity based seemingly on pure conjecture when all the facts and data (and my personal experience) point to the fact that it IS over capacity, not running at a quarter capacity which is pure nonsense.
 
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