Blindness and stupidity when investing in Brazil

[surfingbrazil]

Capacity: 1.300.000 passengers/annum
2007 arrivals: 1.577.809 passengers/annum
Source: Infraero official data

25% of it's capacity? Harumpf.

Hi JM,

Hi JM,

Find your calculator please and follow me.

Quoting your figures from INFRAERO, arrivals at Natal Airport 2007:

1.577.809 pax arrived divided by 365 days = 4323 pax arrived per day

4323 passengers divided by 180 (average capacity of aircraft) = 24 aircraft per day

Well, even less than my previous figure!

24 planes arriving per day! Is this a symptom of overcapacity?

For Gods sake wake up!

At the end who cares how many planes we have arriving there? 24, 30 or 40?


The issue is that all this bull*** about “overcapacity”, “new airport coming”, “ millions to be made by renting” is just the tools of the gigantic SCAM:

# To have the blind investor believe that millions of tourists are queuing to arrive to Natal and the Northeast and that he or she will get rich by buying a off-plan unit that will be rented to them #

Blindness and stupidity, please peruse the very first post of this thread.

 

[debzor]

Capacity: 1.300.000 passengers/annum
2007 arrivals: 1.577.809 passengers/annum
Source: Infraero official data

25% of it's capacity? Harumpf.

All these discussions now are pointless - we did this a while back on another thread and we all seemed to agree that `current capacity` was based on nothing other than safety.

All the airports in the Northeast CAN accept many more flights and passengers with a few improvements and alterations, but it is safety that will always determine capacity, not baggage handling, passport control, floor area, runways, etc.

If the safety of the airports is improved (whatever that entails),so the capacity can increase. This is the same the world over given our (entirely natural) desire to take to the air and return in one piece.

 

[JMBroad]

Thank you for your superb post, Surfing. It shows that not only do you have the ability to be entertaining but you excercise that ability to the fullest.

Maybe because I'm used to working with details like capacity management, assessing bottlenecks in operations and ways to get around them the current airport situation seems stupidly obvious to me.

So I'll try and explain it as if I was talking to someone who hasn't got a clue what the concept of "capacity" means.

If you have a car with 5 seats, you can fit 5 people in it.

If you a bus with 40 seats you can seat 40 people in it.

If you have a car with 5 seats, (even if the boot is big enough for 20 ppl) of the 40 people you have, legally you are only allowed to take 5. You can try and squeeze in a few more but the more you squeeze in, the less comfortable people are and eventually, no more will fit in it.

Now, applying this basic concept to Natal airport. The runways are fine. You could land loads more planes there with no problem. But then you'd have all those extra millions of people trying to use the infrastructure of an airport built to cater to 1.3 million passengers.

Lets say you land double the amount of planes. You now have 3 million passengers trying to use the facilities built for 1.3 million. How is it hard to comprehend that this is simply not possible? The issue isn't the runways and (as far as I know) no one has ever said it was.

Think of the infrastructures built for 1.3 mil which would have to cater to 3 mil.

(just a few of them)
Passport control
Airport general Security
Air traffic control (control tower)
Toilets
Check-in counters
Customs
Security checks for boarding passengers
Gates
Waiting rooms
Shops
Restaurants
Baggage handling
Staff toilets, changing rooms, canteens, security, etc (staff would have to increase proportionally to passengers)

Now, you may well argue that they could "just increase the terminals size and facilities of Natal airport". However that is obviously not going to be free. The government and Infraero have an obligation to assess any investment made and determine if the capital is best used in one project vs another.

Considering they need a new cargo airport for the region and considering that of the 4 airports which welcome 97% of arrivals to the Northeast region, together they are currently working at a capacity of over 100% (15.300.097 arrivals for a max capacity of 15.000.000 passengers) it would be an easy argument that the region as a whole (Northeast of Brazil) needs a new airport which will not only handle the need for arrivals but also cater to Cargo requirements of the country and the region.

That way instead of each airport (Recife, Fortaleza, Natal and Salvador) "just increasing the size of their terminals" - the project was approved to build a new airport to cover the demand of the Northeast as a whole. Originally it was meant to be built in Recife but was then moved to Natal and the land is already being cleared by the army. You can see the clearing for the runways it on Google Earth ffs!

This was the suggested solution and the approved one. An airport is to be built in Natal which will increase passenger capacity of the state to 5.000.000 which increases the capacity of the Northeast by 3.700.000. This airport terminals are designed in a modular fashion which if deemed necessary, can be extended to 15.000.000 and at a later stage if the demand continues to increase - to 40.000.000

Now, I believe in the 5 mil in the short term, accept that the 15 mil is a possibility in the medium term but personally have doubts about the 40 mil in the medium to long term. However, the fact that the terminals are being designed with that in mind is a very comforting reassurance.

Let me know if that was simple to see and understand?

Recife: 2007 arrivals: 4.188.081 - Max: 5.000.000 - 84%
Fortaleza: 2007 arrivals: 3.613.634 - Max: 3.000.000 - 120%
Natal: 2007 arrivals: 1.577.809 - Max: 1.300.000 - 121%
Salvador: 2007 arrivals: 5.920.573 - Max: 6.000.000 - 99%
Total: 2007 arrivals: 15.300.097 - Max: 15.000.000 - 100%

 

[JMBroad]

All these discussions now are pointless - we did this a while back on another thread and we all seemed to agree that `current capacity` was based on nothing other than safety.

All the airports in the Northeast CAN accept many more flights and passengers with a few improvements and alterations, but it is safety that will always determine capacity, not baggage handling, passport control, floor area, runways, etc.

If the safety of the airports is improved (whatever that entails),so the capacity can increase. This is the same the world over given our (entirely natural) desire to take to the air and return in one piece.

Sorry Deb, but I don't agree.

It's not just security.

Ok forget all the other infrastructure and just look at the simplest of all which everyone can relate to... the toilets... If they are designed to cater to 1.3 mil and the sewage system is designed to cater to 1.3 mill, you can't "just throw in a few more toilets" for an increase of 3 times the number of passengers. Increasing the number of toilets has a direct impact on the sewage processing system which would need to be increased proportionally. This will also have an impact on the environment which needs to be considered. Imagine the rucuss if 2.000.000 passengers can't use the toilets, especially while waiting for their plane which is delayed because the control tower isn't big enough to cater to those extra planes so the planes are delayed.

And again, we are talking about a "few" alterations to each airport. Why spend money on several airports which eventually will have to be replaced because you can only increase them by so much. Instead, take the money you'd need to "expand" each airports terminals and build a new airport which not only solves all the problems but also solves the cargo issue AND lays the path for further expansion for the future.

Anyway, Surfing, if you really want to have a coherent debate in which you can present your case and not look like "blindness and stupidity" is the thread for you, go re-read the "Brazil flight information" thread from start to finish, take notes and research them and I look forward to your (polite and respectful) reply.

 

[JMBroad]

Grrr ok another example people might relate to easier:

You have a restaurant on the town square in Salamanca (huge square). You can seat 100 people in your restaurant.

You could, technically, (and if you were legally allowed) put chairs over the whole square and seat up to a hundred thousand people. But your restaurant simply wouldn't cope. Your kitchen and toilets would still be fitted for 100 people.

 

[deedee1]

Hi all,

The main reason which I feel is very important is that the new natal airport is infact supposed to be more of a cargo airport hub for south america!

Which is necessary due to the increase or well everything in brazil at the moment to cater for locals and tourists alike and the vast need for in GENERAL SUPPLIES to cope!!

So taking that into consideration folks we should not be purely basing facts and figures on the predicteed tourism growth etc!!

The new airport is needed equally for both tourism and cargo lets face it!!!

Take care-D

 

[JMBroad]

Hi all,

The main reason which I feel is very important is that the new natal airport is infact supposed to be more of a cargo airport hub for south america!

Which is necessary due to the increase or well everything in brazil at the moment to cater for locals and tourists alike and the vast need for in GENERAL SUPPLIES to cope!!

So taking that into consideration folks we should not be purely basing facts and figures on the predicteed tourism growth etc!!

The new airport is needed equally for both tourism and cargo lets face it!!!

Take care-D

As well as the increase in domestic flights and passenger arrivals (both tourism and business related)

 

[Golfingworld]

Mr Broad, I suggest you stick to selling properties as you clearly don't understand airports!

Read this.............CYPRUS. Larnaca and Pafos airports are on track to set a new record of almost 7 million passengers in 2007, according to Hermes Airports, the consortium which manages both locations. The previous annual record was set in 2005 with 6,781,643 passengers. The latest passenger figures indicate that over 6.6 million passengers travelled through the two airports in the first 11 months.

Over five million passengers have travelled through Larnaca International Airport alone in the eleven months to the end of November – a figure higher than the total yearly figure for 2006.

In November nearly 365,000 passengers travelled through the two airports combined, representing a +4.3% increase on November 2006. At Larnaca passenger traffic increased by more than +7%.

So what ever figures you band around, Cyprus handles more passengers than Recife and Natal combined..and you don't separate International from Domestic..how many internal flighs do you think there are in Cyprus...answer none between these two airports! So all their data is for International....

In which case where is your boom coming from in NE Brazil where they cannot get near to handling what Cyprus handle? Whether their airports are at capacity or no is irrelvant as if your figures are correct there is absolutely no chance of them getting near to Cyprus for years to come...so where is the boom coming from that you are all talking about.

PS Unless I am mistaken, Mr Surf works in the tourist industry...so you are on shakey ground I would say!

 

[ady1231]

Mr Broad, I suggest you stick to selling properties as you clearly don't understand airports!

Read this.............CYPRUS. Larnaca and Pafos airports are on track to set a new record of almost 7 million passengers in 2007, according to Hermes Airports, the consortium which manages both locations. The previous annual record was set in 2005 with 6,781,643 passengers. The latest passenger figures indicate that over 6.6 million passengers travelled through the two airports in the first 11 months.

Over five million passengers have travelled through Larnaca International Airport alone in the eleven months to the end of November – a figure higher than the total yearly figure for 2006.

In November nearly 365,000 passengers travelled through the two airports combined, representing a +4.3% increase on November 2006. At Larnaca passenger traffic increased by more than +7%.

So what ever figures you band around, Cyprus handles more passengers than Recife and Natal combined..and you don't separate International from Domestic..how many internal flighs do you think there are in Cyprus...answer none between these two airports! So all their data is for International....

In which case where is your boom coming from in NE Brazil where they cannot get near to handling what Cyprus handle? Whether their airports are at capacity or no is irrelvant as if your figures are correct there is absolutely no chance of them getting near to Cyprus for years to come...so where is the boom coming from that you are all talking about.

PS Unless I am mistaken, Mr Surf works in the tourist industry...so you are on shakey ground I would say!

Hi Golfing;

I disagree with you, maybe you should also get away from airport stats!

Any stats are not totally related to any boom, Estonia for example had 1m Passengers ONLY IN 2005, and the prices recorded 50.1% appreciation y2y.

What i am trying to say is that, there are alot of places to make money, regardless of the stats!

Cheers

 

[Golfingworld]

Ady, you are right and it is not in off plan property in Brazil!

 

[JMBroad]

Mr Broad, I suggest you stick to selling properties as you clearly don't understand airports!

PS Unless I am mistaken, Mr Surf works in the tourist industry...so you are on shakey ground I would say!

I was a hotel manager for one of the biggest international hotel brands, and I was also regional manager for a chain of travel agencies which specialised in shore excursions (the 25-50 40-seat busses which passengers are sent to during their arrival on cruise ships which tour them around and get them back for departure)

I was trained in both by both companies in data analysis and operational procedures related to the tourism market. Both of those jobs have a heavy reliance on managing the flow of people and capacity management.

So I guess you could say I'm pretty confident about my knowledge of tourism and passenger capacity management.

So Surfing could be the Minister of Tourism for Brazil and I'd give him the same answer. The size of the runways is NOT the sole determining factor when it comes to Airport capacity.

Thanks for your concern though.

If you read my post again you'll see that I didn't separate international and domestic flights, I was merely stating that as the figures show, demand from the domestic market to those 4 airports has also increased significantly which has contributed to the capacity of the airports being at 100% combined.

Regarding the rest of your post I fail to see the relevance.

Cyprus airports are busier than Brazilian airports. Does that imply in any shape or form that the Brazilian airports could handle more capacity? Are you implying that the airports are identically built and equipped with the identical facilities? I'm sure you aren't. So what's the point of the post. Here is equally relevant data:

John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York welcomed 42.6 million passengers in 2006, London Heathrow Airport in London welcomed 61.3 million passengers in 2006 and Suvarnabhumi Airport in Samut Prakan, Thailand welcomed 29.6 million passengers in 2006.

Totally irrelevant to the question we are discussing: "is the new airport in Natal justified or not" but might come in handy if you enjoy Trivial pursuit or meet an especially boring person for drinks later on this evening.

 

[JMBroad]

And just for the record, in case I've been to subtle, I'm not saying the new airport will be built because of a boom in real estate (nor have I ever),I'm saying that the new airport is justified as the current airports for the region can not handle the cargo requirements of the country/region and because the passenger capacity of the region/states is already reaching critical levels.

As it happens, the fact that a new airport is going to be built is a great encouragement for people investing in real estate.

 

[Golfingworld]

Will the new airport handle the daily GOL 737's to Europe, or the daily TAM flights to London or the BMI Baby 737's to Natal, or will the daily flight to Fortaleza from the UK be diverted to Natal.....you get my point..there is too much bullxxxx around and too much water being pushed up hill with wishful thinking. Will the environmental lobby over turn the aiport like Gran Natal Pitch and Putt? Get real please, new investors might start believing things and buy then!

 

[JMBroad]

Will the new airport handle the daily GOL 737's to Europe, or the daily TAM flights to London or the BMI Baby 737's to Natal, or will the daily flight to Fortaleza from the UK be diverted to Natal.....you get my point..there is too much bullxxxx around and too much water being pushed up hill with wishful thinking. Will the environmental lobby over turn the aiport like Gran Natal Pitch and Putt? Get real please, new investors might start believing things and buy then!

Thanks for another completely irrelevant post to the topic at hand.

Where have I ever said any of the above? Just one post by me stating any of those?

The fact that some people are saying the above has absolutely no relevance on the question at hand: "is the new airport in Natal justifiable or not".

If someone on the street says "BMW makes the X5. The X5 can also convert to a hovercraft" would you call BMW liars?

No, you'd ridicule the people that said the hovercraft bit but accept that the first part is correct. BMW do actually make the X5.

Oh and with regards to the "new investors might actually buy things then" I guess you weren't privvy to the development in Parnamirim of 350 plots which sold out in 4 hours? People are buying, land and apartments are selling and the market is becoming more and more internationally acknowledged. We are a small bunch of investors and agents discussing it and as I'm sure you've noticed yourself, the "Brazil Forum" community on this website has grown exponentially in the past few months.

 

[Golfingworld]

How far is Parnamirim from the beach? 35 mins by taxi? As far as I know it is on the main BR101 20 mins west of Natal. Or do youmean Novo Parnamirim only 25 minutes from the beach by taxi...give me a break these are cheaper areas where locals are buying...not tourists from Hamburg or Hanover. There are a lot of mixed metaphors going on here..all by accident or deliberately!

 

[JMBroad]

How far is Parnamirim from the beach? 35 mins by taxi?

At least. And the whole thing sold out in 4 hours.

 

[Golfingworld]

I know a development in Bradford that sold out in 4 hours, must rush to Cornwall and buy as the market is booming....give me a break..this is low cost Brasilian property and bears no realtion to the off plan tourist/ownership market. To quote that famous phrase, I can't believe you just said that!

 

[RalphJ]

Will the new airport handle the daily GOL 737's to Europe, or the daily TAM flights to London or the BMI Baby 737's to Natal, or will the daily flight to Fortaleza from the UK be diverted to Natal.....you get my point..there is too much bullxxxx around and too much water being pushed up hill with wishful thinking. Will the environmental lobby over turn the aiport like Gran Natal Pitch and Putt? Get real please, new investors might start believing things and buy then!

So OK, building a new airport in Natal is justifiable. Now what? Is it going to get built? Just how much money is going to be skimmed? How well do you know BRAZIL and it's infrastructure projects?

Have you seen them be approved? Construction begin? And then....POOF!! It just suddenly stops.

Not saying that this is going to happen in Natal, or in any other city. But for people not to know this is a common occurence here in Brazil is another matter.

I'm sorry if I think it's laughable for someone to sit at a desk in Europe on their computer and talk about huge infrastructure projects in Brazil when we, the people on the ground, have been seeing this kind of thing for DECADES and actually laugh when we see "newbies" swallowing hook, line, and sinker!

 

[JMBroad]

I know a development in Bradford that sold out in 4 hours, must rush to Cornwall and buy as the market is booming....give me a break..this is low cost Brasilian property and bears no realtion to the off plan tourist/ownership market. To quote that famous phrase, I can't believe you just said that!

You know a development in bardford of 350 plots of land which sold out in 4 hours? Or were you being funny?

 

[JMBroad]

So OK, building a new airport in Natal is justifiable. Now what? Is it going to get built? Just how much money is going to be skimmed? How well do you know BRAZIL and it's infrastructure projects?

Have you seen them be approved? Construction begin? And then....POOF!! It just suddenly stops.

Not saying that this is going to happen in Natal, or in any other city. But for people not to know this is a common occurence here in Brazil is another matter.

I'm sorry if I think it's laughable for someone to sit at a desk in Europe on their computer and talk about huge infrastructure projects in Brazil when we, the people on the ground, have been seeing this kind of thing for DECADES and actually laugh when we see "newbies" swallowing hook, line, and sinker!

That's a whole different topic which I won't get into because (as you quite rightly point out) I'm not qualified to. Just as you won't say that it won't be built in Natal, I won't say it will - but I will say that a new airport is justified and can understand why one is planned and talked about so much.

However, the examples you were giving earlier about promises in Aracaju and comparing that to the Natal airport doesn't qualify you either because the comparison isn't comparable. The bridge got built, who knows if the airport will?

The reason we are debating this is because of Surfing's comment which was applauded by GW that Natal airport is working at 25% of capacity and there is no reason to build a new airport.