Are we yet to see the worst of the Dubai property market fall?

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PropGuy

New Member
4 Months eh..... why not 1...2 or 3 months?? which crystal ball are you using?

Ok even if they start lending, who will lend to buyers in Dubai any more?? besides the locals who have citizenship and guarantees, what guarantee will expats offer?? when they could lose their jobs over night. I still don't see the proof where you got that information from. Haven't you heard of people sleeping in their cars and running from the country leaving behind their undies??

People in Dubai made money on launches as they had to pay a tiny deposit and made money on exchanging pieces of papers as there always was room for growth and profit(bubble),what happens now? everyone in i,t hopes to own property to make a capital gain a few rent it out and hope to make a sizeable return on the rentals, growth is finished we all know. Rental yields? well, they should fall as properties flood the market and people scramble for a few genuine renters left behind.
I doubt it you are interested in anything I say, but anyway. According to my information from few bankers who are in HK and Gulf market that there is too much liquidity with the banks and more coming in the future, and it has to go somewhere. Banks can't just live on financing cars and electronic items. Their main financing item was real estate and soon their money is expected to be poured into real estate market again; they are waiting for confirmation of market bottom. Hedge funds have started to bet on commodities again so lot of money is moving into commodities markets again so you can expect worries about inflation again too. As much as Dubai bashers detest Dubai real estate market, it is not as bad as they are making out it to be. It is on a strategic location with good infrastructure. Property sales is picking up as prices are not going down further and people are starting to buy again. But most buyers are still waiting for the summer market since prices are expected to be lowest in that time. However, institutional buyers have started to invest in the real estate already as their market patterns are slightly different than consumer market patterns. Anyhow, institutional investment buying is a very good sign.

These are all the signs of another real estate and commodity bubble again.

Regardless of signs of another property bubble, we may or may not see quick flipping again but according to the forecasts real estate market trend for the long-term is positive depending on the purchase price of the property.

Market channels take time to gain momentum, so in my opinion, it is 4 months to see a rebound, but it could be 1month, 2months, or 6months to a year.
 
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Wannaberich

New Member
Dobuy,
you've stated numerous times that you can't be bothered responding to Stumbleds rubbish, but.... you keep reponding, as you did to me.
It's just that you cannot bear to not have last word isn't it, even though that last word is hilariously non-sensical.

here's a little test, see if you can NOT respond to this,
I'm saying you cannot resist, it's a psychological problem.
Does that mean you have a psychological problem too?
If u noticed,I stopped replying to his posts except for one liners as I could see
his opinion is so one sided, a bit like yours,that I didnt see the point.
However,he still wouldnt shut up with his long rantings so I couldnt resist my last post.
Im just trying to understand where he's coming from.He hates Dubai and has no interest there I appreciate.Therefore I do not understand why he posts on here with one sided comments.Whats he trying to achieve?
Looks like you proved your point.I have a problem.****,what to do.
 
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Wannaberich

New Member
I doubt it you are interested in anything I say, but anyway. According to my information from few bankers who are in HK and Gulf market that there is too much liquidity with the banks and more coming in the future, and it has to go somewhere. Banks can't just live on financing cars and electronic items. Their main financing item was real estate and soon their money is expected to be poured into real estate market again; they are waiting for confirmation of market bottom. Hedge funds have started to bet on commodities again so lot of money is moving into commodities markets again so you can expect worries about inflation again too. As much as Dubai bashers detest Dubai real estate market, it is not as bad as they are making out it to be. It is on a strategic location with good infrastructure. Property sales is picking up as prices are not going down further and people are starting to buy again. But most buyers are still waiting for the summer market since prices are expected to be lowest in that time. However, institutional buyers have started to invest in the real estate already as their market patterns are slightly different than consumer market patterns. Anyhow, institutional investment buying is a very good sign.

These are all the signs of another real estate and commodity bubble again.

Regardless of signs of another property bubble, we may or may not see quick flipping again but according to the forecasts real estate market trend for the long-term is positive depending on the purchase price of the property.

Market channels take time to gain momentum, so in my opinion, it is 4 months to see a rebound, but it could be 1month, 2months, or 6months to a year.
Good post PropGuy.Always good to hear from someone who obviously knows what he's talking about.
No doubt your post will be shot down in flames from one or two people.
 
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stumbled

New Member
I doubt it you are interested in anything I say, but anyway. According to my information from few bankers who are in HK and Gulf market that there is too much liquidity with the banks and more coming in the future, and it has to go somewhere. Banks can't just live on financing cars and electronic items. Their main financing item was real estate and soon their money is expected to be poured into real estate market again; they are waiting for confirmation of market bottom. Hedge funds have started to bet on commodities again so lot of money is moving into commodities markets again so you can expect worries about inflation again too. As much as Dubai bashers detest Dubai real estate market, it is not as bad as they are making out it to be. It is on a strategic location with good infrastructure. Property sales is picking up as prices are not going down further and people are starting to buy again. But most buyers are still waiting for the summer market since prices are expected to be lowest in that time. However, institutional buyers have started to invest in the real estate already as their market patterns are slightly different than consumer market patterns. Anyhow, institutional investment buying is a very good sign.

These are all the signs of another real estate and commodity bubble again.

Regardless of signs of another property bubble, we may or may not see quick flipping again but according to the forecasts real estate market trend for the long-term is positive depending on the purchase price of the property.

Market channels take time to gain momentum, so in my opinion, it is 4 months to see a rebound, but it could be 1month, 2months, or 6months to a year.
You are absolutely right, I wouldn't agree to any tosh you post here without any proof. You say you have info from banks in HK and gulf, well post it here officially for us to believe you. I have asked 13 simple questions and I haven't got an answer to any one of em. I can claim Dubai properties will be half their launch prices, in 5 years time with the poles melting these Dubai's fake island will sink, so I can say what i like but without proof what is your credibility , mine or Dubuy's.

Accept he has a problem with his mind.
 
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stumbled

New Member
-------------------------------
Now he has nothing to say.... but this is the Dubai you stand for??

This excerpt is taken from the independent.
There are three different Dubais, all swirling around each other. There are the expats, like Karen; there are the Emiratis, headed by Sheikh Mohammed; and then there is the foreign underclass who built the city, and are trapped here. They are hidden in plain view. You see them everywhere, in dirt-caked blue uniforms, being shouted at by their superiors, like a chain gang – but you are trained not to look. It is like a mantra: the Sheikh built the city. The Sheikh built the city. Workers? What workers?

Every evening, the hundreds of thousands of young men who build Dubai are bussed from their sites to a vast concrete wasteland an hour out of town, where they are quarantined away. Until a few years ago they were shuttled back and forth on cattle trucks, but the expats complained this was unsightly, so now they are shunted on small metal buses that function like greenhouses in the desert heat. They sweat like sponges being slowly wrung out.

Sonapur is a rubble-strewn patchwork of miles and miles of identical concrete buildings. Some 300,000 men live piled up here, in a place whose name in Hindi means "City of Gold". In the first camp I stop at – riven with the smell of sewage and sweat – the men huddle around, eager to tell someone, anyone, what is happening to them.

Sahinal Monir, a slim 24-year-old from the deltas of Bangladesh. "To get you here, they tell you Dubai is heaven. Then you get here and realise it is hell," he says. Four years ago, an employment agent arrived in Sahinal's village in Southern Bangladesh. He told the men of the village that there was a place where they could earn 40,000 takka a month (£400) just for working nine-to-five on construction projects. It was a place where they would be given great accommodation, great food, and treated well. All they had to do was pay an up-front fee of 220,000 takka (£2,300) for the work visa – a fee they'd pay off in the first six months, easy. So Sahinal sold his family land, and took out a loan from the local lender, to head to this paradise.

As soon as he arrived at Dubai airport, his passport was taken from him by his construction company. He has not seen it since. He was told brusquely that from now on he would be working 14-hour days in the desert heat – where western tourists are advised not to stay outside for even five minutes in summer, when it hits 55 degrees – for 500 dirhams a month (£90),less than a quarter of the wage he was promised. If you don't like it, the company told him, go home. "But how can I go home? You have my passport, and I have no money for the ticket," he said. "Well, then you'd better get to work," they replied.

Sahinal was in a panic. His family back home – his son, daughter, wife and parents – were waiting for money, excited that their boy had finally made it. But he was going to have to work for more than two years just to pay for the cost of getting here – and all to earn less than he did in Bangladesh.

He shows me his room. It is a tiny, poky, concrete cell with triple-decker bunk-beds, where he lives with 11 other men. All his belongings are piled onto his bunk: three shirts, a spare pair of trousers, and a cellphone. The room stinks, because the lavatories in the corner of the camp – holes in the ground – are backed up with excrement and clouds of black flies. There is no air conditioning or fans, so the heat is "unbearable. You cannot sleep. All you do is sweat and scratch all night." At the height of summer, people sleep on the floor, on the roof, anywhere where they can pray for a moment of breeze.

The water delivered to the camp in huge white containers isn't properly desalinated: it tastes of salt. "It makes us sick, but we have nothing else to drink," he says.

The work is "the worst in the world," he says. "You have to carry 50kg bricks and blocks of cement in the worst heat imaginable ... This heat – it is like nothing else. You sweat so much you can't pee, not for days or weeks. It's like all the liquid comes out through your skin and you stink. You become dizzy and sick but you aren't allowed to stop, except for an hour in the afternoon. You know if you drop anything or slip, you could die. If you take time off sick, your wages are docked, and you are trapped here even longer."

He is currently working on the 67th floor of a shiny new tower, where he builds upwards, into the sky, into the heat. He doesn't know its name. In his four years here, he has never seen the Dubai of tourist-fame, except as he constructs it floor-by-floor.

Is he angry? He is quiet for a long time. "Here, nobody shows their anger. You can't. You get put in jail for a long time, then deported." Last year, some workers went on strike after they were not given their wages for four months. The Dubai police surrounded their camps with razor-wire and water-cannons and blasted them out and back to work.

The "ringleaders" were imprisoned. I try a different question: does Sohinal regret coming? All the men look down, awkwardly. "How can we think about that? We are trapped. If we start to think about regrets..." He lets the sentence trail off. Eventually, another worker breaks the silence by adding: "I miss my country, my family and my land. We can grow food in Bangladesh. Here, nothing grows. Just oil and buildings."

Since the recession hit, they say, the electricity has been cut off in dozens of the camps, and the men have not been paid for months. Their companies have disappeared with their passports and their pay. "We have been robbed of everything. Even if somehow we get back to Bangladesh, the loan sharks will demand we repay our loans immediately, and when we can't, we'll be sent to prison."

This is all supposed to be illegal. Employers are meant to pay on time, never take your passport, give you breaks in the heat – but I met nobody who said it happens. Not one. These men are conned into coming and trapped into staying, with the complicity of the Dubai authorities.

Sahinal could well die out here. A British man who used to work on construction projects told me: "There's a huge number of suicides in the camps and on the construction sites, but they're not reported. They're described as 'accidents'." Even then, their families aren't free: they simply inherit the debts. A Human Rights Watch study found there is a "cover-up of the true extent" of deaths from heat exhaustion, overwork and suicide, but the Indian consulate registered 971 deaths of their nationals in 2005 alone. After this figure was leaked, the consulates were told to stop counting.

At night, in the dusk, I sit in the camp with Sohinal and his friends as they scrape together what they have left to buy a cheap bottle of spirits. They down it in one ferocious gulp. "It helps you to feel numb", Sohinal says through a stinging throat. In the distance, the glistening Dubai skyline he built stands, oblivious.
 
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Wannaberich

New Member
You are absolutely right, I wouldn't agree to any tosh you post here without any proof. .
I think its fair to say PropGuy sounds more credible than your rantings.
On what do you base your own negative points on Dubai?
Why are u so convinced the place will collapse and never recover?
 
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Wannaberich

New Member
Now he has nothing to say.... but this is the Dubai you stand for??

This excerpt is taken from the independent.
There are three different Dubais, all swirling around each other. There are the expats, like Karen; there are the Emiratis, headed by Sheikh Mohammed; and then there is the foreign underclass who built the city, and are trapped here. They are hidden in plain view. You see them everywhere, in dirt-caked blue uniforms, being shouted at by their superiors, like a chain gang – but you are trained not to look. It is like a mantra: the Sheikh built the city. The Sheikh built the city. Workers? What workers?

Every evening, the hundreds of thousands of young men who build Dubai are bussed from their sites to a vast concrete wasteland an hour out of town, where they are quarantined away. Until a few years ago they were shuttled back and forth on cattle trucks, but the expats complained this was unsightly, so now they are shunted on small metal buses that function like greenhouses in the desert heat. They sweat like sponges being slowly wrung out.

Sonapur is a rubble-strewn patchwork of miles and miles of identical concrete buildings. Some 300,000 men live piled up here, in a place whose name in Hindi means "City of Gold". In the first camp I stop at – riven with the smell of sewage and sweat – the men huddle around, eager to tell someone, anyone, what is happening to them.

Sahinal Monir, a slim 24-year-old from the deltas of Bangladesh. "To get you here, they tell you Dubai is heaven. Then you get here and realise it is hell," he says. Four years ago, an employment agent arrived in Sahinal's village in Southern Bangladesh. He told the men of the village that there was a place where they could earn 40,000 takka a month (£400) just for working nine-to-five on construction projects. It was a place where they would be given great accommodation, great food, and treated well. All they had to do was pay an up-front fee of 220,000 takka (£2,300) for the work visa – a fee they'd pay off in the first six months, easy. So Sahinal sold his family land, and took out a loan from the local lender, to head to this paradise.

As soon as he arrived at Dubai airport, his passport was taken from him by his construction company. He has not seen it since. He was told brusquely that from now on he would be working 14-hour days in the desert heat – where western tourists are advised not to stay outside for even five minutes in summer, when it hits 55 degrees – for 500 dirhams a month (£90),less than a quarter of the wage he was promised. If you don't like it, the company told him, go home. "But how can I go home? You have my passport, and I have no money for the ticket," he said. "Well, then you'd better get to work," they replied.

Sahinal was in a panic. His family back home – his son, daughter, wife and parents – were waiting for money, excited that their boy had finally made it. But he was going to have to work for more than two years just to pay for the cost of getting here – and all to earn less than he did in Bangladesh.

He shows me his room. It is a tiny, poky, concrete cell with triple-decker bunk-beds, where he lives with 11 other men. All his belongings are piled onto his bunk: three shirts, a spare pair of trousers, and a cellphone. The room stinks, because the lavatories in the corner of the camp – holes in the ground – are backed up with excrement and clouds of black flies. There is no air conditioning or fans, so the heat is "unbearable. You cannot sleep. All you do is sweat and scratch all night." At the height of summer, people sleep on the floor, on the roof, anywhere where they can pray for a moment of breeze.

The water delivered to the camp in huge white containers isn't properly desalinated: it tastes of salt. "It makes us sick, but we have nothing else to drink," he says.

The work is "the worst in the world," he says. "You have to carry 50kg bricks and blocks of cement in the worst heat imaginable ... This heat – it is like nothing else. You sweat so much you can't pee, not for days or weeks. It's like all the liquid comes out through your skin and you stink. You become dizzy and sick but you aren't allowed to stop, except for an hour in the afternoon. You know if you drop anything or slip, you could die. If you take time off sick, your wages are docked, and you are trapped here even longer."

He is currently working on the 67th floor of a shiny new tower, where he builds upwards, into the sky, into the heat. He doesn't know its name. In his four years here, he has never seen the Dubai of tourist-fame, except as he constructs it floor-by-floor.

Is he angry? He is quiet for a long time. "Here, nobody shows their anger. You can't. You get put in jail for a long time, then deported." Last year, some workers went on strike after they were not given their wages for four months. The Dubai police surrounded their camps with razor-wire and water-cannons and blasted them out and back to work.

The "ringleaders" were imprisoned. I try a different question: does Sohinal regret coming? All the men look down, awkwardly. "How can we think about that? We are trapped. If we start to think about regrets..." He lets the sentence trail off. Eventually, another worker breaks the silence by adding: "I miss my country, my family and my land. We can grow food in Bangladesh. Here, nothing grows. Just oil and buildings."

Since the recession hit, they say, the electricity has been cut off in dozens of the camps, and the men have not been paid for months. Their companies have disappeared with their passports and their pay. "We have been robbed of everything. Even if somehow we get back to Bangladesh, the loan sharks will demand we repay our loans immediately, and when we can't, we'll be sent to prison."

This is all supposed to be illegal. Employers are meant to pay on time, never take your passport, give you breaks in the heat – but I met nobody who said it happens. Not one. These men are conned into coming and trapped into staying, with the complicity of the Dubai authorities.

Sahinal could well die out here. A British man who used to work on construction projects told me: "There's a huge number of suicides in the camps and on the construction sites, but they're not reported. They're described as 'accidents'." Even then, their families aren't free: they simply inherit the debts. A Human Rights Watch study found there is a "cover-up of the true extent" of deaths from heat exhaustion, overwork and suicide, but the Indian consulate registered 971 deaths of their nationals in 2005 alone. After this figure was leaked, the consulates were told to stop counting.

At night, in the dusk, I sit in the camp with Sohinal and his friends as they scrape together what they have left to buy a cheap bottle of spirits. They down it in one ferocious gulp. "It helps you to feel numb", Sohinal says through a stinging throat. In the distance, the glistening Dubai skyline he built stands, oblivious.
Regards the issue of construction workers,we all know this is a problem.To what extent no-one know as at the moment we are mainly getting stories from the Uk media who seem to be very anti-Dubai.
On the back of this unwanted media attention Dubai ahd taken action to its credit.
The issue of badly treated workers will not break Dubai.You really need to come up with more reasons as to why u feel Dubai will fail.
 
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stumbled

New Member
I think its fair to say PropGuy sounds more credible than your rantings.
On what do you base your own negative points on Dubai?
Why are u so convinced the place will collapse and never recover?
Well, you think I care what my ratings are out here??lol....All i ask is you give us the proof with what you post, that is my creditability, you guys are just claiming what your opinions are. No one wants to know what you or prop guy thinks, we want proof. I haven't claimed anything I have asked 13 questions to which i haven't received any answers except a mind game that you must win on this forum. 13 Questions which everyone in the finance market is asking about Dubai and for its future.
To me this aint a game, but sure has become fun to ridicule someone like you who makes 2 posts a day without ANY KNOWLEDGE.
 
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stumbled

New Member
expatriates.com - Dubai - Real Estate For Sale

The point dobuy seems to be making is why have i come back after 2 years??well, for someone like me i like to read the posts and only think speak when its necessary and this is a forum not his ''chai'' shop where he can control who comes in and who doesn't. If you make 2 posts a day, it shows how frivelous you are with your comments and speak before you think,all this time i'VE come here weekly read the forums and bloggs and go away. The market was doing well and everyone seemed happy and none seemed to pay attention to the dangers that LURKED and still lurk out there. All i ask is you counter my points as i list them, cause you don't seem to understand when i put em in sentences. You are obessessed with what i missed and why i am here, seems living in Dubai makes you like that as you dont have your basic rights, freedom of speech, freedom to go where you like when you liKe...etc etc.



1)dirhams peg?
2)will income tax be introduced?
3)when the kids finish their term will the parents flee?
4)what guarantee will people give for a deposit to a bank?
5)with europeans and americans out of the pic, who are the buyers out there?
6)WHAT SORT OF loans are you being offered in dubai and at what rate??
7)In UK i was offered a mortgage offer recently at 2.33% fixed for 2 years, can you ever get that sort of a rate in dubai?
8)with gross rents at 10%...after dedcuting service charges, income tax (if not living in dubai),management charges,wear and tear, etc etc do people still make money on the end product??
9)majority of people were making money when they were buying at launch and hoping to make money as they went along that required $10k-100k dollars, they are stuck with huge portfolios and are finding it harder to make repayments as their slice increases... will they dump their stock and at what rate ??
10)What is the local govt. doing to stimulate the economy??the 10bil bail out by abudhabhi seemed like a bail out.....and if it ever does or protects anything it will only for its local citizens not for the expats.

11)has anyone been given a loan for a property??
12)what RIGHTS or what sort of renumeration packages are available if you lose a job??
13)Ive heard you can be denied a visa if you make a serious traffic offence, so whats the point of having a residence visa when you don't have basic human rights and right to entry and retire in a country you slogg your whole life?

the questions are endless....LIKE I SAID YOU DON'T KNOW MY FINANCIAL POSITION IN LIFE AND YOU ARE STUCK ON THE IDEA THAT I AM BITTER WITH A MISSED OPPORTUNITY, 3-4 years is a long time to be bitter isnt it? and remember opportunities never die there is always an oppotunity ,all you have to do is be wise and be PATIENT. That is A THOUGHT you can chew upon , to me I want answers to my questions that i've asked, until then from where i am sitting DUBAI IS F.I.N.I.S.H.E.............D!!!






the link gives you the distress sellers in dubai ...


expatriates.com - Dubai - Real Estate For Sale

Here is why dubai can, should,could fail.....
 
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Wannaberich

New Member
Well, you think I care what my ratings are out here??lol....All i ask is you give us the proof with what you post, that is my creditability, you guys are just claiming what your opinions are. No one wants to know what you or prop guy thinks, we want proof. I haven't claimed anything I have asked 13 questions to which i haven't received any answers except a mind game that you must win on this forum. 13 Questions which everyone in the finance market is asking about Dubai and for its future.
To me this aint a game, but sure has become fun to ridicule someone like you who makes 2 posts a day without ANY KNOWLEDGE.
I ask that you give proof also.You have ripped Dubai apart yet have nothing to back up your claims.On the other hand,I have put aside my own points of view,for BOTH sides,without sounding as though my word is gospel which is what you're trying to put across.
I dont need to ridicule you,your are doing a very good job making fun of yourself with your laughable comments.
 
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stumbled

New Member
I ask that you give proof also.You have ripped Dubai apart yet have nothing to back up your claims.On the other hand,I have put aside my own points of view,for BOTH sides,without sounding as though my word is gospel which is what you're trying to put across.
I dont need to ridicule you,your are doing a very good job making fun of yourself with your laughable comments.
I am not claiming anything I am asking here and I am asking why should Dubai survive ?? and how?? You and prop have feelings and opinions of recovery ...... that's called gambling, when you start working with your heart and not with your mind and facts. In all these pages you guys haven't given us any proof or logical explanation to your claims. So i post the questions once again.

The point dobuy seems to be making is why have i come back after 2 years??well, for someone like me i like to read the posts and only think speak when its necessary and this is a forum not his ''chai'' shop where he can control who comes in and who doesn't. If you make 2 posts a day, it shows how frivelous you are with your comments and speak before you think,all this time i'VE come here weekly read the forums and bloggs and go away. The market was doing well and everyone seemed happy and none seemed to pay attention to the dangers that LURKED and still lurk out there. All i ask is you counter my points as i list them, cause you don't seem to understand when i put em in sentences. You are obessessed with what i missed and why i am here, seems living in Dubai makes you like that as you dont have your basic rights, freedom of speech, freedom to go where you like when you liKe...etc etc.



1)dirhams peg?
2)will income tax be introduced?
3)when the kids finish their term will the parents flee?
4)what guarantee will people give for a deposit to a bank?
5)with europeans and americans out of the pic, who are the buyers out there?
6)WHAT SORT OF loans are you being offered in dubai and at what rate??
7)In UK i was offered a mortgage offer recently at 2.33% fixed for 2 years, can you ever get that sort of a rate in dubai?
8)with gross rents at 10%...after dedcuting service charges, income tax (if not living in dubai),management charges,wear and tear, etc etc do people still make money on the end product??
9)majority of people were making money when they were buying at launch and hoping to make money as they went along that required $10k-100k dollars, they are stuck with huge portfolios and are finding it harder to make repayments as their slice increases... will they dump their stock and at what rate ??
10)What is the local govt. doing to stimulate the economy??the 10bil bail out by abudhabhi seemed like a bail out.....and if it ever does or protects anything it will only for its local citizens not for the expats.

11)has anyone been given a loan for a property??
12)what RIGHTS or what sort of renumeration packages are available if you lose a job??
13)Ive heard you can be denied a visa if you make a serious traffic offence, so whats the point of having a residence visa when you don't have basic human rights and right to entry and retire in a country you slogg your whole life?

the questions are endless....LIKE I SAID YOU DON'T KNOW MY FINANCIAL POSITION IN LIFE AND YOU ARE STUCK ON THE IDEA THAT I AM BITTER WITH A MISSED OPPORTUNITY, 3-4 years is a long time to be bitter isnt it? and remember opportunities never die there is always an oppotunity ,all you have to do is be wise and be PATIENT. That is A THOUGHT you can chew upon , to me I want answers to my questions that i've asked, until then from where i am sitting DUBAI IS F.I.N.I.S.H.E.............D!!!
 
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Wannaberich

New Member
I am not claiming anything I am asking here and I am asking why should Dubai survive ?? and how?? You and prop have feelings and opinions of recovery ...... that's called gambling, when you start working with your heart and not with your mind and facts. In all these pages you guys haven't given us any proof or logical explanation to your claims. So i post the questions once again.

The point dobuy seems to be making is why have i come back after 2 years??well, for someone like me i like to read the posts and only think speak when its necessary and this is a forum not his ''chai'' shop where he can control who comes in and who doesn't. If you make 2 posts a day, it shows how frivelous you are with your comments and speak before you think,all this time i'VE come here weekly read the forums and bloggs and go away. The market was doing well and everyone seemed happy and none seemed to pay attention to the dangers that LURKED and still lurk out there. All i ask is you counter my points as i list them, cause you don't seem to understand when i put em in sentences. You are obessessed with what i missed and why i am here, seems living in Dubai makes you like that as you dont have your basic rights, freedom of speech, freedom to go where you like when you liKe...etc etc.



1)dirhams peg?
2)will income tax be introduced?
3)when the kids finish their term will the parents flee?
4)what guarantee will people give for a deposit to a bank?
5)with europeans and americans out of the pic, who are the buyers out there?
6)WHAT SORT OF loans are you being offered in dubai and at what rate??
7)In UK i was offered a mortgage offer recently at 2.33% fixed for 2 years, can you ever get that sort of a rate in dubai?
8)with gross rents at 10%...after dedcuting service charges, income tax (if not living in dubai),management charges,wear and tear, etc etc do people still make money on the end product??
9)majority of people were making money when they were buying at launch and hoping to make money as they went along that required $10k-100k dollars, they are stuck with huge portfolios and are finding it harder to make repayments as their slice increases... will they dump their stock and at what rate ??
10)What is the local govt. doing to stimulate the economy??the 10bil bail out by abudhabhi seemed like a bail out.....and if it ever does or protects anything it will only for its local citizens not for the expats.

11)has anyone been given a loan for a property??
12)what RIGHTS or what sort of renumeration packages are available if you lose a job??
13)Ive heard you can be denied a visa if you make a serious traffic offence, so whats the point of having a residence visa when you don't have basic human rights and right to entry and retire in a country you slogg your whole life?

the questions are endless....LIKE I SAID YOU DON'T KNOW MY FINANCIAL POSITION IN LIFE AND YOU ARE STUCK ON THE IDEA THAT I AM BITTER WITH A MISSED OPPORTUNITY, 3-4 years is a long time to be bitter isnt it? and remember opportunities never die there is always an oppotunity ,all you have to do is be wise and be PATIENT. That is A THOUGHT you can chew upon , to me I want answers to my questions that i've asked, until then from where i am sitting DUBAI IS F.I.N.I.S.H.E.............D!!!
You cant make your point by asking questions.You need to come up with facts as to why Dubai will fail so badly like you assume.
As for myself,what dont you agree with?Ive said there will be no more earning huge amounts in record time.I believe Dubai will grow at a reasonable rate
and not at the previous unsustainable rate.Why is that so hard to achieve in your mind?Why do you not think people will move there?why do u think no businesses will move there?why do u think no-one will want to go on holiday to Dubai?
explain yourself.
I cant say Im right.I can only make a judgement on what I know.Only time will tell the outcome.
Try and be a little more positive.You seem like quite a negative person.
 
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PropGuy

New Member
You are absolutely right, I wouldn't agree to any tosh you post here without any proof. You say you have info from banks in HK and gulf, well post it here officially for us to believe you. I have asked 13 simple questions and I haven't got an answer to any one of em. I can claim Dubai properties will be half their launch prices, in 5 years time with the poles melting these Dubai's fake island will sink, so I can say what i like but without proof what is your credibility , mine or Dubuy's.

Accept he has a problem with his mind.
You don't have to believe but you can confirm it two ways:
(1) Time. Wait and see what happens in the property market.
(2)
a) Feds are pumping huge amount of cash, they have already pumped over 1 trillion and they are expected to pump 1 to 2.6 trillion more over next 2 years. So total of 3.6 trillion of liquidity is expected to come into the market. You don't have to believe me as this all over in financial new sources, just search.
b) So where all this money is going? Most of it is directly or indirectly going to the banks, again don't have to believe me all the in the financial news sources. And search also how much banks are holding cash at the moment, which means banks are sitting with lot of cash waiting to be moved to somewhere.
c) If you have a friend in financial market with access to Bank of International Settlements statistics. This bank keeps a record for international financial transactions and its statistics show that a lot of money is moving into commodities market, a trend which is similar to pre-2007-2008 commodities (including real estate) market boom.

Lastly, about Dubai being in strategic location with good infrastructure is no secret.
 
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PropGuy

New Member
7)In UK i was offered a mortgage offer recently at 2.33% fixed for 2 years, can you ever get that sort of a rate in dubai?
You brought very good point, which is another reason I see for property market recovery. Those kind of rates have never been offered in Dubai, but banks have to come to those levels sooner or later. Which would give another boost to real estate market here. I think down the road we'll see 3 years visa issued on property and better mortgage rates.
 
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Wannaberich

New Member
I'm not entirely sure what the argument with Mumbled actually is.I dont think anyone believes the property market will be as before.Most see a healthy gradual price increase as with most other countries.Is that so absurd to believe?Grumbled believes a total collapse in all areas of Dubai.Business,financial,tourism,commerce,property,basically everything.
Im personally suggesting Dubai will become a pretty cool place as a city with many exciting and innovative projects and a good lifestyle for those who live there.Why is this so extreme a view and so hard for some to believe?
Here are some facts.Im no expert,far from it,just what Ive picked up.

1/The collapse of the Dubai property market was down to the worst economic crisis since the second world war.Had this not occured,the worst Dubai could have expected was a 10/20%
price correction as predicted by a number of reputable investment banks.So basically Dubai was right on track.
2/BUSINESS:This time last year the occupancy levels of office premises was 98%.This obviously suggests Dubai is a place where many people want to do business.When things pick up there is no reason to suggest this will not again be the case.Especially considering Dubai is tax free and has free zones such as Silicon Oasis.
With the construction of many more office towers especially those at Business Bay,rental prices will come right down and make Dubai more attractive for businesses.
3/POPULATION:The population of Dubai may not take long to get back to Sept 2008 levels
partly due to the fact many of those who left reluctantly,will return.Thats the overwhelming message I get from reading various posts on various forums.
Also new people will be attracted by Dubai which is now very well known worldwide due to much publicity over recent years.Its all year round sun and tax free.
For 2.5billion people,Dubai is only a 2hour plane journey away to re-locate.
4/TOURISM: Dubais hotels enjoyed one of the highest occupancy levels in the world up until last year even though average prices were quite high.Tourist figures have increased every year as Dubai becomes more and more well known.2/3 years ago I doubt most people really knew anything about this place.As more tourism projects get completed more people will holiday there.It will become a place for families once a number of theme parks are completed,plus it will be a perfect place for those into their shopping with some great malls including the worlds biggest.
Lets not forget Dubai is a 2 hour plane journey from around 2.5 billion people.
With the emergence and growth of Emirates Airlines more and more will come to Dubai.
5/PROPERTY:Who will buy?Indians,Pakistanis,Iranians,Russians.There is no money to be made on property in their own countries.
Probably not the british due to a strong pound and bargains to be had back in the UK.For other euro nations,the problem of a strong dollar may change should it weaken over the next /12 months.Many of these other euro nations do not experience big rises in property prices so may be tempted towards the UAE.As euro nations in total only make up a small percentage of buyers in Dubai this is not a problem.

All this will take time.7/10 years before the Dubai of the future really starts to show itself.
Its pointless judging Dubai on how it is now as theres so much more to come.
You cant judge a film after watching the first half.You need to watch it till the end and then decide.
So for those doom mongers I wish you guys would just sit back and give it time before you slate it.

Thats it.I really dont see why this should be so hard for people to comprehend.
The alternative is that the population figure shrinks and hardly anyone new moves to Dubai.
Businesses skip Dubai and look elsewhere ignoring the tax free benefits.The growth in tourism numbers for some reason reverses and hardly anyone holidays there.
No-one buys property so prices collapse even more.This set of scenarios is far more unbelievable than the postive points I have posted.
Anyone want to disagree?
 
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PropGuy

New Member
The alternative is that the population figure shrinks and hardly anyone new moves to Dubai.
Businesses skip Dubai and look elsewhere ignoring the tax free benefits.The growth in tourism numbers for some reason reverses and hardly anyone holidays there.
No-one buys property so prices collapse even more.This set of scenarios is far more unbelievable than the postive points I have posted.
Anyone want to disagree?
Meh agree. Makes sense.
 
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sasl

New Member
The bottom is not reached

Following is taken from the Article "The shape of things?" published on 20th April 2009 in Arabianbusiness dot com. It was an interview with Dr Eckart Woertz, the economist who accurately predicted the current global economic crisis

Talking of real estate prices dropping, what is Woertz's reading of the local property market? Since the start of this year, UAE property prices, particularly in Dubai have eased considerably, reflecting the wider global trend. While he thinks about it, he looks out of his high-rise office window over Dubai.

"At the end of the day, maybe Dubai real estate prices are going down by 60 to 80 percent from their peak in summer, 2008. But Dubai's business model as a trading hub is still there, it will not vanish into the sea, only many of its real estate investors will. Others will pick up the pieces at lower levels and will be happy campers. Over here there is a lot of pessimism.

Probably, you might have some sort of bottom over 2010, in the market. From a market psychology point of view, we have seen a first crash. We will see a second crash here. Real panic. There will be a second crash in property. We are now down 30 percent or so, and it will go down 60 to 80 percent."

What will cause that? "There is oversupply, less foreign investors who probably were two thirds of the market, people will move back and there will be distressed selling. No one knows how all this stuff is financed. Having said that, that is capitalism. It always has crises. It has lived with them, despite of them and because of them as Eric Hobsbawm once said. That is what it thrives on, right? So get used to it. The people who bought real estate last summer, they can be happy when they get back their money in fifteen years. If you wait six to twelve months, then you can buy property for 60 to 80 percent cheaper than it was last summer, especially if it is a flat."

What about the recent acquisition by the UAE Central Bank of $10bn worth of Dubai issued bonds? Won't that help prop the market up?

"That basically will ensure refinancing of Dubai for 2009. It doesn't necessarily give a company additional money to pay contractors. It is not a solution forever after. It keeps Dubai comfortably afloat for 2009, in case there are any problems with refinancing existing debts. Refinancing needs are $15bn for 2009. So they have got $10bn, they might get another $10bn, because the bond program is for twenty billion. The other $10bn will also need to be bought by the Central Bank because in the current situation at four percent nobody gives an emerging market issuer like Dubai money on the free market. Nobody. So this money keeps Dubai afloat for 2009. Not more, not less."

Last year was an astonishing one for GCC countries. Soaring oil prices meant oil producing countries were pulling billions of dollars out of the ground every week. Now the oil price has come down from its peak in summer 2008 of $147 a barrel to around $40-50. Where does Woertz predict it will go next?

"It will go up and it will be good for the region. It will go up because of supply constraints. Because we have a decline in production patterns in many regions of the world - like North America and the North Sea. Also China looks toppy. So basically, at the current levels, we don't have investments. Drilling deep, say in the Brazilian sea, requires technology that is expensive. So you need prices of $60 to $80 to make that viable. We will move towards that over the next two years. We might even see a steep rise over $100 in that time, because there is a severe supply crunch in the oil market on its way. But this year I don't think we will go beyond $60."
 
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revolutionary

New Member
My feeling is that the market is already down 50% from the peak and you probably need to drop another 10% to be sure of getting a sale. In the UK, property has easily gone down over 20% and if you throw in the factor of the pound devaluing a third against the dollar, then the UK and Dubai look on parity. The rest of the world is not far behind.

But what is devaluing by 50%? Shares have gone down a similar amount. If you cashed in your 50% devalued share-based pension now and bought a retirement home at half price with that money, have you really lost out? What you have lost is the feeling of wealth that allowed you to spend freely in restaurants, holidays, yachts etc - all discretionary spending that is easily eliminated.

If people had been given a 100% pay rise would they be so gloomy? Yes the mortgage debts have not halved with the property prices, but before the crash the world economy had been looking like overheating anyway leading to inflation and possible doubling of interest rates which would have ended up with similar interest payments.

It is the speed of the change that has caught people. The people that were caught were mostly those that had seen their assets rise dramatically in the last few years. The lucky ones are those that didn't have the money to invest then, but now find that assets are far cheaper.

Life is tough but wouldn't it be better to all have smiles on our faces because the boss has just given us a big pay rise?
 
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Wannaberich

New Member
Where are u Stumbled?have u been humbled?
Im waiting for your counter argument with anticipation?
 
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