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Are we yet to see the worst of the Dubai property market fall?

Discussion in 'Dubai property' started by Nicholas Wallwork, Apr 21, 2009.

  1. Nicholas Wallwork

    Nicholas Wallwork Editor-in-Chief Staff Member Premium Member

  2. pisandre

    pisandre New Member

    Well, my personal feeling is that the Dubai government wants to speed up the fall:
    - new amendment of the law 13 screwing up a little more current investors who are going to default
    - no support from RERA on disputes
    - no mortgage from banks
    - if mortgage, prohibitive rates
    - no visa for residence owner

    It is really going in the wrong direction. :mad:
  3. monokeeloX

    monokeeloX New Member

    I'm New here!

    Say saying hi to you guys!
  4. financier888

    financier888 New Member

    market will continue to drop

    The correction in the market is far from over as the gloabl economy has not stabilzied. Considering that about 90% of the demand for the Dubai market comes from 'outside' of Dubai - these economies will need to improve before investors come back. There is still quiet a bit of inventory being held by investors and this will need to be absorbed by end users. Even though some sales are picking-up (from ZERO ! 0 !) there is still a long way to go not to mention the inventory coming online for handover this year and artificially trying to delay it, is not a solution.

    In addition, as stated in an earlier post - the ways things are being handled, or more correctly, NOT being handled by the authorities as it relates to errant developers and investor protection - this most certainly will hurt future investor sentiment. As the saying goes - 'bad news travels fast' - the other critical issue is the visa, the current policy is hurting the market and forcing investors to look at other oppotunities. (for instance, Malaysia offers better pricing and more realistic visa conditions not to mention the cost of living provides more value for your money or Singapore for that matter albeit the prices are higher)

    I think we'll have a realistic insight to the Dubai market and future prospects in Oct at the Cityscape Dubai. Now, as we approach the summer - expect to see more bargains and further corrections reflecting an end-user market properly benchmarked. Dubai, like any other country wishing to attract businesses and investors and / or residents need to provide incentives and demonstrate that they uphold the rule of law they enacted to boost investor confidenace. Now is the time for 'action' - making good on the 'PR" - the perception is growing is that developers are getting a free ride, not being held accountable and blatantly raking the investors over the coals... (see many of the other threads on this site...)

    If this is not corrected, and soon, it makes years before Dubai will turn itself around.

    Last but not least - if Dubai goes through with the IMF recommendations and imposes income tax, personal or business, they'll be welding the door 'shut' - they should look behind the true intentions of this recommendation..... and the IMF track record!!!!!!!
  5. revolutionary

    revolutionary New Member

    Rather than further dramatic falls in all areas, I think there could be a large rearrangement of where people live.

    Everybody is aware of the Metro coming on stream this year. If you are currently renting in a cheap location but getting stuck in traffic every day, you may well be tempted to try for an apartment in an area near a metro station. This has been long forecasted and so people will have had a chance to plan their next rental move.

    With villa prices now in sensible reach for many, families may choose to rent or buy villas and escape from apartments.

    As rents become more sensible people will be able to choose their favourite location rather than just having to go for cheapest.

    My prediction is that good quality locations will hold at sensible prices whereas areas whose only advantage was price will go further downmarket, leading to a further exodus.
  6. taxijoe

    taxijoe New Member

    Hi to all at the forum.

    Some really good stuff here great looking forum , glad i found it will check back a little later to read some more.
  7. dubister

    dubister New Member

    Wishful Thinking

    As much as I would love to see the market bottoming out; unfortunately, the reality is very different. I think summer 09' will tell the story pretty well. I cannot imagine the market ever coming back here, unless the government decides to open up full immigration and let the expats play a role in the governance. I mean we know there is no place for flippers here, so who does that leave for investment here... no one... Let's see. I have my fingers crossed and will be pleasantly surprised if fall 09' shows a big turnaround.
  8. Wannaberich

    Wannaberich New Member

    I believe prices will continue to fall until cityscape but only by another 10/15%
    after which I believe the market will stabilise.

    1/Tameel and Amlak are to start lending soon which will bring more buyers into the market.
    2/Agents are reporting more sales plus less properties are being put on the market.
    3/Dubai just reported a 2% growth for the third quarter of this year.
    4/The US and UK goverments along with Dubai are saying the worst is over and there are signs of recovery.
    5/The UK just raised tax to 50% for high earners which may mean more talented people moving to places like Dubai(this is a fairly small point).
    6/By the end of cityscape the dollar may have weakened which will make Dubai properties
    cheaper for foreigners.
    7/The opening of the Burj Dubai in september will be a huge worldwide event in terms of the publicity it will bring as happened with the Atlantis opening.
    This may well re-announce Dubai on the world scene.
  9. stumbled

    stumbled New Member

    Hello all!!!

    I am that pessimist that came on this forum 2 years ago and shouted on top of my voice how this was all a pack of cards and my posts are still there and there were huge debates and rants against my views, here we are now.

    A lil background check, I live in the UK and am landlord since 1997 and have all my properties paid up, no loans or mortgages as i saw this coming since 2005, when I last bought my house the last property deal i made, even back then i thought I was paying through my nose.

    My love affair with Dubai was when IC was launched and i agree i missed the boat as I intended to purchase 10 properties, but didnt go ahead with it due to human rights issues and residency rules in the UAE for non localites.

    Anyways, from the above optimistic points, all i see is wishful thinking. D.U.B.A.I IS FINSIHED!! that is the sentence that is appropriate for Dubai. With It's dwindling oil reserves and crashing(if nor crashed) property market and diminished job sector what is left for anyone to go to dubai anymorE?? any suggestions???? shopping?? tourism???,,,,,, tax heaven??(taxed indirectly heavily)hmmmmm..... i can't think of any. The Dirhams peg to the dollar is doing it more harm as everything is more expensive, the Brits who are flogging their properties are trying to cash in the depreciated sterling against the dollar and cashing in a small profit on their loss making properties.

    You say the banks will start lending soon...yes but at what rate? and to whom? and what will be the deposit?? people who just work in Dubai will have to put down alot more deposit if they want a loan as every bank is scared,as there is no such thing as a job security anywhere in the world let alone in dubai. People in the UK and USA CAN GET A LOAN, cause they are based there and are residents of that country, what about ppl in Dubai, they have no residency rights, so what guarantee will one give to the bank?? If you think of it, Dubai will die and crumble because of its two tier rules for emeratis and outsiders.

    The biggest spenders in this world were the American and the Europeans(they still are btw), they are skint and hit so hard its scary. This is the worst recession in our living memory. Dubai has never seen or lived through a recession lets remember that,it will be a shock for the localites, hard for the African(they are cash buyers and dont have a morgage usually) investors as they try to make their payments for unfinsihed projects or try finding a tenant, hard for the russian investors investng there and forget about the europeans and Americans.

    Have you recently seen the holiday offers and airline offers to dubai?? you should, its never been this cheap going to dubai.

    UK and USA lost the carpet below their feet when their housing and banking bubble burst and these are the 2 giants these banks, this world and china will want to save because of its appetite, dubai is too small a fish and a dream, which will be swallowed and btw it has already lost the floor below the feet and its in free fall, if one hasn't noticed(u guys rarely use the carpet out there anyway).
    And remember another thing no one dreams when ur awake, and for those that do......we know what we call em.......Dubai's dreamers!!

    good day!!
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2009
  10. Wannaberich

    Wannaberich New Member

    Another one claiming he saw the world wide credit crunch coming.How boring how sad.No-one knew.
    Sounds like your really upset for not buying into IC.Had you done so in 2005,even with the price crash you would be fine and earning a very good rental yeild.Had you been really smart you would have sold last year and made a fortune.
    You didnt and now you begrudge Dubai becoming the great city it will become.
  11. stumbled

    stumbled New Member

    Dude, this is NOT about me, i aint trying to be a hero. I know the reality check hurts and bites, THIS IS ABOUT DUBAI!!!!!!!!!! HELLO!!! why would i claim anything if it wasn't there, its all there all you have to do is dig em up with one button and read the posts, if you ever ready anything here ,that is.

    I JUST GAVE YOU MY BACK GROUND, my posts are still there you can read em by going on view all posts. By claiming to know it back then i am not going to get a medal, the fact is people still don't want to see THE reality. Have to lived through a recession?? well, you haven't seen one hit dubai yet , i say yet, cause wait till the school kids finish their term and watch the mass exodus and then ill come back on this forum.
    Listen, if i wanted to claim anything or if this forum was my life i wouldn't come back after 2 years, i'd be here everyday. I am afraid rather than belitting me, take my advice and start praying, cause thats all that left for D.U.B.A.I.

    People never you are entitled to dream.....on.

    But, DUBAI...IS FINITO!!

    BTW, I didnt realise you have made like 635 posts on this forum, and still no cigar?(moderator)shows how sad your views must be?and i have not attacked anyone personally here,if you think I am bitter about IC, then you dont know my position in life and i don't know yours, to be judgemental on my position,now that is isnt it? If i said I am sitting pretty in this recession that should suffice my method of investment, in life one has lots of opportunity to take plunges and if you think i feel bitter about IC then that is S.A.D.

    I can understand that these forums are your only method to calm yourself down with your interest in Dubai and goodluck to you, and i wish and pray dubai recovers, honestly i do.

    In your whole post all you've done is try to belittle me, it doesn't bother me at all. All i want to see is you counter my points that i have put forth and be useful to people who want to know abt the greatness of dubai that you speaketh of, so next time lets stick to the topic, although getting personal can be more fun.

    Last edited: Apr 23, 2009
  12. Wannaberich

    Wannaberich New Member

    Firstly I dont see the relevance in the amount of posts I' ve made.Please explain?
    As for your claim again to have forecast the property price crash in Dubai.Actually what you would have forecast was a crash based on oversupply,any idiot could see that was coming,or at least a correction.What you did not see was a crash based on the worldwide credit crunch caused by the banks.Please dont say you did because to do so would make yourself look stupid.
    I'm not quite sure why anyone who has no interest in Dubai would come here after a long time and basically rip the place to bits.Are u here just to wind people up?sad.
    Personally I do not know what will happen with Dubai.I do think however it has a very bright future and am maybe a more positive thinking person than yourself.
    Best thing to do is come back here in another two years then we;ll see if your predictions were justified.
    Until then try and get over all that money you could have made at IC.
  13. stumbled

    stumbled New Member

    Stupid? idiot? think if you talk positive on this forum you can sway the minds of people on how Dubai isn't finished? The fact of the matter is you see what the current state of Dubai is and the feeling I get is ur so heavily invested that for someone like you the only way out seems to hold a banner in a forum like this and hope u can revive the whole economy. LOL:D
    Like i mentioned before anyone can see this forum is your life with over 600 posts and i assume most are judgemental calling people idiot and stupid. Over supply?? everyone knew there was a correction anticipated i mentioned that in my January post 2008,but a credit crunch now that none expected,ALL I CLAIMED WAS IT WAS A PACK OF CARDS(BUBBLE).
    l say is now that we are in it, for people in Dubai what sort of deposit will one give to acquire a property? people have no guarantees that a bank would want IN A PLACE LIKE DUBAI....lets assume everyone will have to put down 20% as is the norm in the west from now on. Can people in Dubai afford that sort of a deposit on their modest income? I mean for someone like you who runs a ''chai'' shop and can't think beyond IC and a 5% deposit can you ever touch a brick in Dubai??

    The point I am making is the local banks will support its local citizens, for someone like you and many the game is over. People from Europe and America won't come down to rescue you as they don't have enough to buy a day's meal AND most seem to have lost their shirts.

    All I suggest is you read all the posts ....if you can....and think beyond your ''chai'' shop, before making judgemental comments.

    As for me to disappear from these forums, well you will have to make me...your cheap insults will just inspire me tbh. After all we are doing a service by showing people how this DREAM called ''Dubai'' is crumbling(if it hasn't already).

    You haven't mentioned anything that is sensible on the revival of the property market...over supply and correction was a story that was for 2006, try something new.

    As per investing in IC and sour grapes you talk of....well i can give you the maths that investing in it 3 years ago at launch, waiting for it, aggravation..etc etc leaving the money in the bank would have made me more money. If you want the maths...well just ask for it. For some someone like you there is nothing beyond Dubai, don't forget I live in a place where investment opportunity is all around me, Dubai was just an oasis...I say ''was'' I see it from here, it's finished, kaput and most do too, they just don't want to admit it.

    As of now no one has given me anything positive about the revival of Dubai's property market. The thing you have to know is what is a bubble and what happens when it bursts. You are talking for IC, wait when those studios and 1 beds come to half the launch price and there will be no takers.

    The only solution for Dubai is to depreciate its currency against the dollar, that peg has to go if you want people to flock back, but considering their ego it prolly won't happen. PRAY.
  14. financier888

    financier888 New Member

    I think 'Stumble' made very valid points and realistically, from an investors standpoint - they need to be examined. Inosfar as it being about 'sour-grapes' or 'opportunities missed' - I did NOT come away with that impression after reading the post.. He raised very legitimate issues - as to 'who are these end users and where will they come from ?' Banks providing mortgages and / or easing lending is not the pancea - if the demand is not there... or for that matter the security of a job in a country you must exit - IF you lose your job or go to jail if you cannot service your debt.... There is hardly enough demand to absorb the inventory in the foreseeable future... (with over 50% + of the current inventory being held or controlled by non-resident users..)

    The other side of the coin is the inherent political risk issues in the surrounding countries - like Pakistan, parts of India, Iran, Africa etc whereupon, people from those middle classes may seek to emigrate to Dubai as a safe haven for the security it can provide as well as good & peaceful quality of life - but then again - it will come back the visa issue...

    I am not ready to 'write Dubai off' - the leadership is creative and resourceful and it holds a very unique position in the world stage and I beleive, will continue to do so as it goes through these growing pains - along with the rest of the world..

    Insofar as stated in another post on this thread -' the USA & the UK state the worst is over and the recovery is beginning' ???????????? Really? hmmm... maybe that's backed-up on some YouTube post? this mess is far from over - 'buckle-up' and wait till 4Q '09 and then let's see where we are....

    appreciate all your input.
  15. Sixgun

    Sixgun New Member

    Whenever somebody posts negative facts about Dubai, (i.e usually accurate facts), Dobuy pops up and attacks them, for daring to air it on this forum.
    He seems to think we should be glowing, happy and positive about the future on this forum, and that somehow, the positivity on this small forum will convince the investors, bankers, the whole world, that there is no such problem.
    The whole point of a forum Dobuy, is to bring out facts, the true facts, good or bad, and unfortunately for now, it's 95% BAD
  16. Wannaberich

    Wannaberich New Member

    Its a very bizarre thing that this forum is my life because I have averaged 2 posts per day since I joined.Strange.
    Obviously I am not trying to talk Dubai up by posting postive statements on here.Like thats really going to turn around the entire property market in Dubai?Strange again.
    As for heavily investing there,no I havent,Im ok but thanks for the concern.
    Regards your posts,the fact you choose to come on here after a long break and basically slate Dubai I find odd,very odd.I definitely do not have a problem with people picking out the many bad points of Dubai and telling us all why its not a place to invest anymore.Its great to get both points of view,good and bad.
    The fact is you lost credibilty by totally ripping the place to pieces which demonstrated to me a bitterness at losing out.I just cannot see how people like you can only see the bad and cannot see any good in Dubai.
    Come on have a go,think of a couple of good things to say,you can do it.
    How about the great weather,the amazing developments.Palm Jum one of the icons of the world.The magnificent Bury Dubai buildings and surrounding complex.Dubai Mall the biggest in the world.Dubai Marina what a great place.The beaches,indoor skiing,the upcoming metro which will be amazing,the fabulous airport with its new terminal 3.
    Think about Dubai in 10 years and what a great place it will be.As many people have said the credit crunch is the best thing that could have happened to the place.It was all moving way too fast.Now that things have slowed right down,Dubai can be built at a more sustainable and considered pace.Infrastructure can now catch up which is vital.Many worthless projects have been cancelled never to be built which is important.Dubai will grow as a city at the right pace and attract many new residents especially now with cheap property prices.Tourism will grow as projects get completed and Dubailand will come,eventually.
    Do I think its a good place to invest?Based on the bargains I could get in the Uk plus the strong dollar no I dont.Its unlikely to boom like it did before.I wouldnt rule out a mini-boom,but probably prices will rise maybe 10/15% each year as they do in the UK.
    Like I said,I would put my money at home as would probably most europeans.However,considering most of the foreigners investing in Dubai come from India,Pakistan,Iran,Russia,thats irrelevant.Dubai is the perfect place to invest for them.
    Personally I have never looked at Dubai just from an investment angle,I have always been interested in the developments and intrigued at what kind of city it will become.So when I defend the place to think i am doing it for selfish reasons because of investments is totally wrong.
    You on the other hand are quite clearly looking at it from the money making point of view and out of bitterness for your lost opportunity.
  17. Wannaberich

    Wannaberich New Member

    If I attacked every negative post on here about Dubai then my post count would be around 6000 not 600.What an idiotic thing to say.
    Like I send in my last post,I think its good when people post both points of view.
    I just get bored by those who actually cannot see anything good whatsoever in Dubai.Why the hell do people come on this forum just to slate the place.
    As far as I can remember,you are one of those who always has only bad things to say about Dubai which makes me think its a little sad for you to come on here.
  18. Sixgun

    Sixgun New Member

    The main reason I've hung around is that I was involved with both Damac and profile, in for £30k and 50k respectively, managed to get my money back out of both (having realised they were both running me in circles) and many posters have been interested and asking how I managed to get refunds.
    So quite a few of my posts have been answering those questions.
    I started off on here as a happy investor/poster, but was ground down to the sceptic I am today.
    Not bitter, because I haven't lost a penny, made money on the ex.rate in fact,

    All the wonderful facts about Dubai, the buildings, beaches, etc etc, are true, very impressive, but these forums are largely made up of investors, many of whom have been duped out of a great deal of money.

    As I said, I dealt with 2 companies, and it's basically destroyed my trust in the Dubai "system", and as mentioned, I was one of the very lucky ones.

    We can post on here whether we're happy or sad with the place, none of your business, just scroll past the names you don't wish to read.
  19. Wannaberich

    Wannaberich New Member

    I would have in your case had you not replied to one of my posts.
    Besides,I like to counter all the negative stuff people like you post.
    They need to see both sides of the story.Difference between you and me is that like Ive said many times,I see the good and bad.Right now its not good but then none of us were forced into investing in Dubai.My own investments arent too
    brilliant right now but Im not bitter like you and the other guy.
    As for this forum being full of duped investors,thats crap.
  20. Sixgun

    Sixgun New Member

    You have convinced me, I have been a fool, you are correct in everything you have said, and ever will say. thank you
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