Blindness and stupidity when investing in Brazil

[RalphJ]

You may be 100% correct about an airport being at 1000% of capacity for all I know.....the point is mute. But an airport actually getting built is another matter. I can have brazilian secretaries of tourism from various states comment about this if I like.

 

[JMBroad]

You may be 100% correct about an airport being at 1000% of capacity for all I know.....the point is mute. But an airport actually getting built is another matter. I can have brazilian secretaries of tourism from various states comment about this if I like.

I'd be very interested in getting their opinion, as I believe would the rest of the participants of the forum so, (hoping I'm not being presumptuous) on everyone's behalf, I'd like to take you up on that.

When do you think you can get it by?

 

[RalphJ]

I'd be very interested in getting their opinion, as I believe would the rest of the participants of the forum so, (hoping I'm not being presumptuous) on everyone's behalf, I'd like to take you up on that.

When do you think you can get it by?

LOL JM, I'm not sure. And if you know brazil and worse yet, brazilian politicians, then you well know why. But the secretary of tourism for my state will be at my house this coming saturday for my birthday. I can ask him to comment.

 

[Golfingworld]

Hello Ralph, this airport thing is fundamental and a comment would be welcome, but perhaps more pertinent is to ask why all flights have to go south first, why there are restrictions on Charters and one way tickets outbound and don't they realise that if they want a tourist influx they need to free up their skies first. To be honest, Recife has a great airport already, to my mind the issue is not airport capacity but airline franachising, route availability and freedom to trade on a price market as is allowed in Dubai UAE for example. In the old days 3rd world countries had this misconception that they were protecting their National Airline business by doing this, but seeing as Brazil protected theirs and it still went bust (VARIG) the whole policy is ludicrous. If you have connectons and can get the message over that will help everyone. A good example of this is if you want to go from MIA or JFK to Natal or Recife, why do you have to go to Rio or SP 3 hours south first? This is entirely ridiculous and this is the issue which stagnates tourist growth and not whether the airport can take another GOL 737! I think you get my point.

 

[RalphJ]

Hello Ralph, this airport thing is fundamental and a comment would be welcome, but perhaps more pertinent is to ask why all flights have to go south first, why there are restrictions on Charters and one way tickets outbound and don't they realise that if they want a tourist influx they need to free up their skies first. To be honest, Recife has a great airport already, to my mind the issue is not airport capacity but airline franachising, route availability and freedom to trade on a price market as is allowed in Dubai UAE for example. In the old days 3rd world countries had this misconception that they were protecting their National Airline business by doing this, but seeing as Brazil protected theirs and it still went bust (VARIG) the whole policy is ludicrous. If you have connectons and can get the message over that will help everyone. A good example of this is if you want to go from MIA or JFK to Natal or Recife, why do you have to go to Rio or SP 3 hours south first? This is entirely ridiculous and this is the issue which stagnates tourist growth and not whether the airport can take another GOL 737! I think you get my point.

I completely get your point Golfing, and the only thing I can say is that they are all well aware of this, especially since most of them have properties in the United States and spend time there yearly. I think it comes down to profitability for the airlines and the lack of a consistant flow of foreigners and/or nationals to and from particular points. They have a small handful of these flights, but certainly nothing like we all would like. For instance Tam has a sunday flight from Salvador to Miami and vice-versa. And it is always jammed packed. But your point is well taken and one that has been recognized by nearly all. It's absurd to route northern travel south only to return north, and vice-versa. All I can say is that I have other websites other than my ones for my brazilian business and constantly have troubles with my connection and velocity. About a year and a half ago one of my techies in the states traced my connection to my server based in the states and told me it was leaving Aracaju, going to Minas Gerais, then to Sao Paulo, then to North America!!! Just like air travel here in Brazil!! Talk about unnecessary connectivity, routing, and trafficking, but there it is. Sometimes all you can say is....."Bra-Zil-Zil-Zil-Zil!!"

 

[RalphJ]

and speaking of airline prices here in Brazil...they're more expensive than in the U.S. or Europe.

Years ago I would buy my round trip tickets from brazil to the U.S in the U.S. online and save myself around 300-400 dollars!!! The Brazilian airlines quickly caught on to this and although one can still purchase via this method, the American airline companies will no longer give ANY discounts if you do not depart from the U.S.

 

[Golfingworld]

Ralph, the first stage to this is perusading them to allow the sale of one way tickets on charter flights. This doesn't break global fight conventions as charters have different trade rules. This very thing started in Spain and Portugal 30 years ago or so as they ran their flight economies the same way. Once they allow legalone ways then they accept open skies to a certain extent, the big problem with the US is there is no real Charter flight industry as people book packages via scheduled carriers only. But Europe is different. The problem here is that global finance takes a part as offshore credit cards have to be accepted online etc etc. So it is not as simple as it seems. But the principle is that whilst the market is restriced, as it was in Iberia years ago no property or investment market will boom...whatever these wishful thinkers want to tell you. The good news is that prices are stagnent now, apart from exchange differences and those in before the opening up will profit in the end. But anyone who has contacts and can get this message over is doing a service to thmselves and others. This would be far more valuable than quoting Google stats as to whether the airports are at capacity!

 

[RalphJ]

Ralph, the first stage to this is perusading them to allow the sale of one way tickets on charter flights. This doesn't break global fight conventions as charters have different trade rules. This very thing started in Spain and Portugal 30 years ago or so as they ran their flight economies the same way. Once they allow legalone ways then they accept open skies to a certain extent, the big problem with the US is there is no real Charter flight industry as people book packages via scheduled carriers only. But Europe is different. The problem here is that global finance takes a part as offshore credit cards have to be accepted online etc etc. So it is not as simple as it seems. But the principle is that whilst the market is restriced, as it was in Iberia years ago no property or investment market will boom...whatever these wishful thinkers want to tell you. The good news is that prices are stagnent now, apart from exchange differences and those in before the opening up will profit in the end. But anyone who has contacts and can get this message over is doing a service to thmselves and others. This would be far more valuable than quoting Google stats as to whether the airports are at capacity!

Well, I'll certainly make it a point that your comments will be read by at least the secretary of tourism from my state.

 

[JMBroad]

This would be far more valuable than quoting Google stats as to whether the airports are at capacity!

You simply can't resist can you? Source was Infraero and Tribuna do Norte though actually.

 

[Golfingworld]

Because most of the stats you post are irrelvant to the real situation...what is relevant is how you get there and at what price and not where you land and if your luggage takes an hour to get to you!

 

[JMBroad]

Because most of the stats you post are irrelvant to the real situation...what is relevant is how you get there and at what price and not where you land and if your luggage takes an hour to get to you!

No, what matters is how you will get there in 5 years and where you land and if your luggage will take an hour to get to you then.

The discussion of whether an airport will open is relevant in that scenario and therefore the current condition of the airports in the region are vitally relevant so that we can assess how likely it is that the construction of the new airport is justified.

 

[surfingbrazil]

Well JM, go on and believe your own patronizing crap about saturation of Natal airport.

Next time you are there visit the toilets, since you seem to have the knowledge to asses sewage and toilets capacity, and you will notice that there not queuing to get in there.

But now I am going to give other different example showing the fragility of the tourist demand for Brazil.

In December 2006 the Spanish company AIR MADRID collapsed and had to file for bankruptcy.
Before that they were flying Madrid – Fortaleza twice a week (about 250 seats each flight)
After the stopped, ultimo December 2006, nobody has bothered to take up this flight and their respective slots. There is not a flight MAD – FOR today

Then using common sense most discerning travelers and investors will get to the conclusion that there are not as much demand for Brazil as real estate agents pretend.

By the way, in Natal this season already started weaker than last year’s, regarding overseas tourists.

 

[Golfingworld]

You are right surf. This season is very bad indeed for Natal and the Reis keeps rising which doesn't help matters. What you will soon have is European prices but not European quality..it is already happening in places like Pipa and Muriu where the buggies stop for lunch...it's now cheaper to go to the beach and eat in Alicante! The airport is miles and nautical miles from capacity we were the only international flight out on Saturday night and there was this idiot immigration officer slowing the whole process for those leaving, as she wanted to be important and she wanted to slow the crowds to send a message. She meticulously checked every detail on each passport and the immigration form. One drunken Swede had lost his form, so she made them sit in a corner and panic saying they couldn't leave the country without it..true but after making them sweat she says ok you can leave after all, but don't do it again! How many countries in the world give a damn about those who are leaving??? This says it all about their "shoot themselves in the foot" mentalility when it comes to foreigners. I have seen this crazy mentality in Salvador too and it gets worse, they didn't slow the locals but let them though quickly, just so they could wait 3 hours, yes it took three hours to get to the departure gate! Until someone says..."oi....get your act together and stop treating gringos like fools as they are bringing in investment" there will be no boom and certainly no airports running at capacity!

 

[robh]

it is already happening in places like Pipa and Muriu where the buggies stop for lunch...it's now cheaper to go to the beach and eat in Alicante!

What drugs are you taking this week GW?

What a laugh .....

I agree with the airport treatment though, but it isn't to do with foreigners, it is to do with charter flights. With that said, you are right, they need to smarten their game.

 

[robh]

This season is very bad indeed for Natal and the Reis keeps rising which doesn't help matters.

Have you got some stats to show that the season was bad?

 

[JMBroad]

Well JM, go on and believe your own patronizing crap about saturation of Natal airport.

Next time you are there visit the toilets, since you seem to have the knowledge to asses sewage and toilets capacity, and you will notice that there not queuing to get in there.

But now I am going to give other different example showing the fragility of the tourist demand for Brazil.

In December 2006 the Spanish company AIR MADRID collapsed and had to file for bankruptcy.
Before that they were flying Madrid – Fortaleza twice a week (about 250 seats each flight)
After the stopped, ultimo December 2006, nobody has bothered to take up this flight and their respective slots. There is not a flight MAD – FOR today

Then using common sense most discerning travelers and investors will get to the conclusion that there are not as much demand for Brazil as real estate agents pretend.

By the way, in Natal this season already started weaker than last year’s, regarding overseas tourists.

1) The only reason I was patronizing in my post was because of your patronizing original post which claimed only stupid people would believe the hype that Natal airport was working at more than 25% capacity based on no facts or figures or any other relevant assessment - if you know that it is working at 25% capacity and not 110% capacity as the management company, newspapers and politicians say, then please share it with us, we'd love to be enlightened.

2) You are right, there are no direct flights from Madrid to Fortaleza. There are also no direct flights from Madrid to Natal or Madrid to Salvador that I know of. There are numerous pages of options and different prices for flights from Madrid to either one of the above but with a minimum of 1 "hop" or a maximum of 2 "hops" - either going through Lisbon with TAP or through the Cape Verde with TACV. I found 6 pages of flight options to get from Madrid to Fortaleza.

But that has no relevance to whether the airport in Natal is at capacity or not and therefore while it is interesting and could possibly be used to discuss an entirely different subject, it does nothing to justify your earlier comment about the airport capacity. So by the fact that you are changing subjects - can we assume that your comment about the airport working at 25% was plucked out of the sky or did you actually look into the matter and can come back with a productive discussion on the topic?

Regarding the fact that this tourist season is weaker than last years - (and I'm asking because I honestly don't have a clue if it's weaker or stronger) - that's very sad to hear...

How do you know? What are you basing that on? Do you have any data or sources which we could have access to by which to compare to last year? Are there less tourists or just less revenue per capita?

I see that you agree with him GW. Maybe you'd be as kind as to share where you are getting that information from and what comparisons you are using to reach that conclusion.

I'm afraid my sources only produce their reports for January about half way into February so I'll only be able to compare statistics in a week or so.

 

[robh]

Air Europa does scheduled Madrid direct to Salvador 5 days a week I believe.

Comet Air operates Madrid to Natal but as a charter to Club Vacciones once a week.

 

[JMBroad]

Air Europa does scheduled Madrid direct to Salvador 5 days a week I believe.

Comet Air operates Madrid to Natal but as a charter to Club Vacciones once a week.

I must have missed those then

 

[michaelbush]

Just for the record - you can get charters from Madrid- Natal with Air Comet Plus, who took over Air Madrid. I gather they are offering a special price of 480 euros return flight only, and I understand that the ticket is valid for 3 months. This is info I have from a Spanish colleague here in Natal, so I have to verify it. Air Comet are the charter company working with Club Vacaciones.

 

[JMBroad]

I stand doubly corrected !!