?

What price represents current value per square meter of luxury in Natal?

  1. 2000USD

    81.8%
  2. 3000USD

    9.1%
  3. 4000USD

    9.1%
  4. Sky's the limit >4000

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

Natal how much is Value and how much is Hype?

Discussion in 'Brazil Property' started by PropDoc, Jan 5, 2010.

  1. PropDoc

    PropDoc New Member

    I am looking at a property in Natal Ocean Club. 5* resort associated with an asking price of 348,000 UK (556800 USD) for a completed luxury Beach Cabana 140 m2. I know there are cheaper properties out there, but what I want to know is this - what do you feel is the right price per square meter for an average 3* property and what do you think the premium should be for something truely luxury. Is what I am being asked Stg 2500/M2 or USD 4000/M2 value :dancing:eek:r hype:elefant:. What is the liklehood of turning a profit on a similar property in 2-3 years time.:questionmark:
     
  2. ExperienceInt.Dale

    ExperienceInt.Dale New Member

    Average price per m2 for say 3-4 star prime example is Sol Do Atlantico resort, 3 star, completed, walking distance to beach, good facilities, good quality build selling at approx £1200 per m2 or the Praia bonita beach & Lagoon 4 star resort, almost completed, good facilities, good quality build apartments selling at approx £1400 per m2. The big difference between these properties and the Natal Ocean Club is the premium 5 star quality and branding with the hotel operator onboard, award winning design etc..The rental rates at Natal Ocean club will start from $400 per night..Properties like Sol Do Atlantico have good potential for capital growth as it is prime beach location, but you can't expect a huge rental income you would probably only get a rental of about £250 per week...
     
  3. PropDoc

    PropDoc New Member

    Any owners of similar?

    Thanks very much Dale for the comparables. Anyone here bought already at NOC or 5* elsewhere in Pipa for example? NOC has great potential if the Preferred Hotel Group occupancy of about 80% turns out to be true. Not sure if I have complete faith in this projection. I feel a bit :sheep: ish! Anyone know what the occupancy rates for good 4+ hotels in Natal are like at the moment:questionmark:
     
  4. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    For Rio Grande do Norte it really depends on where in the state you are looking to buy:

    The value of the property of course is linked to the size of the apartments and build quality, amount of leisure areas, on-site facilities, location and accessibility. The further south you go from Natal, normally the cheaper the units as the further south you go the less infrastructure you have in the surrounding neighbourhood. This is of course until you reach certain tourism destinations like Pipa and SMG.

    Prices in the city centre are going to be very different and again depends on the neighbourhood you are in, but here are some ideas of realistic prices on the southern coast between Piúm and Barreta (first village after Natal to first village before Tibau do Sul / Pipa)

    3* - from R$ 1.400,00 per m2 to R$ 1.800,00 per m2
    4* - from R$ 1.800,00 per m2 to R$ 3.000,00 per m2
    5* - from R$ 3.000,00 and up - no real limit - if it's special, Brazilians will pay for it

    Your quotes were
    £1200 per m2 for a 3* star resort = R$ 3.306,00 per m2
    £1400 per m2 for a 4* star resort = R$ 3.855,00 per m2

    Of course the value of a property is what someone is willing to pay for it - so each development and prices need to be looked at on a case by case scenario. But just from those examples, your prices seem very inflated.

    As for getting £250 (R$ 700,00) per week to rent an apartment in a 3* development - that seems very unrealistic - probably closer to that amount per month.

    As for NOC - it seems to be the real first five star development in the north coast of Natal - if they do all they seem to be doing and manage to achieve it, it may well be the first five star development in the state, and therefore is appealing to a niche market - and will probably be very popular with Brazilians. Their prices are not cheap but I believe that is on purpose - I don't think they are looking to cater to people who are on a limited budget.

    The location is isolated (a good thing in my view as the last thing you want near a luxury development is a bunch of mudhuts) but there is a lot of promise for the area - nearby there are plans for another luxury development and the village near the development is quite cute. It's the first I've heard about US$ 400 per night - that seems quite high to me, considering prices of five star luxury hotels in Europe and the prices of hotels here in Natal, but if they can achieve that, all the better. I think their main challenge will be the zero-based staffing of the hotel due to the existing labour pool. However opening hotels is a very challenging process and that is only one of the very normal challenges they will face.

    There is a little pousada on a surfers beach in Ceará which charges more than US$ 400,00 per night and is doing so well they are looking to open another hotel in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, so it is certainly possible...
     
  5. ExperienceInt.Dale

    ExperienceInt.Dale New Member

    Thanks but these prices are not inflated prices they are direct from the developers on projects which are the only ones actually seeing good construction and completion progress, which removes any evident risk of buying off-plan. I know several clients who have bought at the Natal Ocean Club, visited the site and are happy with there investment.

    You pay for what you get and a city located apartment in this region may be cheaper per m2, but are for perhaps longer term lets which will command lower rental rates as you stated about £250 per month from local brazilians.. These are not ideal for the short term holiday buy to let market, for beach front high quality properties on a resort which benefits from an array of facilities such as gym, spa, tennis courts, bar, restaurants etc onsite you are looking at rental rates of £200 - £300 per week in the mid to high season.

    Have a search on google or holidaylettings website for rental apartments in Natal, Brazil to see for yourself and help with your research process you will see it probably comes up with similar rates that I mentioned.

    Natal Ocean Club is the first truly 5 star resort, signed up with a very powerful hotel brand which does certainly give it a niche status to be able to capitalise on the growing popularity of the market. We expect these properties to command huge profits during the World Cup 2014 in particular.

    It is a small boutique resort which has less competition, construction well underway and for this reason will have sustainability and longevity in the market, try to avoid the larger scale developments as many of these are experiencing delays and financial problems due to the downturn... There will be a demand for this type of luxury estate from the growing population of wealthier brazilians and tourists. It is aimed at the top end luxury market for this reason.

    Preferred Hotels & Resorts is the ultimate luxury collection, including more than 185 exceptional hotels and resorts in the most desirable locations around the world – more than any global hotel company including Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton and Aman. 80% occupancy is quite high however and these types of 5 star resorts normally do take 2-3 years to get up and running, they certainly wouldn't be running at below 50% occupancy from year 3 or it would not be worthwhile adding Natal Ocean Club to there collection in the first place. In fact they are already cross promoting, exhibiting and taking bookings for Phase I as we speak.

    Even at 50% occupancy the net return is still sustainable and cash flow positive..however there forecasts are aimed to be achieving 78% occupancy from year 3, and beach cabanas will charge an average daily rate of $588 so you can see there is a huge difference between Natal Ocean Club and the other mediocre opportunities on the market.

    You also need to consider your exit strategy, what you don't want is a sitatuation where you have an average quality property which you are unable to sell in a few years because the market is flooded with these types of development. Like the situation in Spain or Dubai where the bubble has burst. Investors who did well in these markets bought at the top end or at discounted prices. It is all about getting in at the right time, the right price, right location an exiting at the right time. I believe now is an excellent time to invest in Brazil and something special like Natal Ocean Club which will have stronger resale and rental potential to the others...its worth the extra money..

    I hope this helps.

    Dale
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2010
  6. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    I didn't mean to infer that you were inflating the prices, Dale - I meant that those seem to be prices which are being geared towards overseas buyers who normally pay a lot more than the local market - hence they are probably developments which are being built by developers to sell to that market.

    Prices for foreigners are normally more expensive than prices for the local market - hence the prices for foreigners are "inflated" by the developers themselves. Overseas tourists will pay more than the local market for rentals however the locations we are talking about (From Pium to Barreta) are normally more attractive to locals than to foreigners as they are located in very local areas - not exactly tourist areas (well, perhaps Pium and Pirangi - as a side note, Pirangi has a very active nightlife at the moment - I went there on Saturday night and it was packed)

    "Preferred Hotels & Resorts is the ultimate luxury collection, including more than 185 exceptional hotels and resorts in the most desirable locations around the world – more than any global hotel company including Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton and Aman"

    Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton and Aman are hotel chains - as you quite rightly say, Preferred Hotels and Resorts are a hotel collection... You can't compare them... Starwood Hotels and Resorts include the prestigious Westin, W, Sheraton, Four Points, St Regis, Le Meridien etc. and now have almost 1200 hotels.

    Preferred Hotels and Resorts I believe are similar to Relais & Chateaux, Luxury Hotels of the World, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, etc... Each hotel is independently run by their own management team however have to achieve a very high level of quality to be considered part of the collection. At least it would appear that way as they have Hotel Beau Rivage in Geneva and Hotel Tivoli in Lisbon and the Algarve in their collection, which as far as I know are privately owned hotels. To be a part of a chain means that the hotel has many benefits including the reservations and worldwide marketing strategy of the chain and often have to conform to certain standard operating procedures and other limitations so the guests are assured the level of service they are paying for.

    To have a hotel on the development which is a part of a hotel collection like this certainly adds prestige to the development and will help sales and rentals and is a great boost to those investing in the development.
     
  7. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    I totally agree with you that it is the right time to invest in Brazil. The huge difference between Dubai or Spain for that matter is that those markets were always aimed at the transient populations (second home, tourists)... Brazil is gaining more and more strength as the local population are finding themselves in a position now where they can actually afford to purchase property for themselves for first residences.

    The basic three markets which are available in just about any property market are, as you are well aware, the transient population (short term holiday rentals), secondary residences (holiday homes of up to 6 months a year) and primary residences (main residences for over 6 months a year). Dubai never had the population to fill all the housing that was being built - they were building purely on speculation that tourism and secondary residences would fill the demand. The same with Spain and most of the other "bubble" markets.

    Brazil has a huge population, a massive housing deficit and because of the constantly improving economic and social conditions of the population, more and more of the population are (for the first time in the history of the country) able to purchase their own homes (instead of living several families in one home). This is creating a massive demand for what you are calling "average quality" homes. According to the local newspaper "Tribuna do Norte" the last estimate was around 70.000 people in Natal alone looking for some sort of social housing or low-medium income housing. So the exit strategy for this type of property is at an all time high and only likely to increase. This demand is what is fuelling the construction of low to medium income housing in the state, creating employment on a massive scale and bolstering the economy - with so many people enter the property ladder at the lower rungs, they are increasing the demand for medium income property, which in turn increases the demand on the higher tiers as well.

    Most developers in the state have been and still are focusing on the medium income market. NOC is probably the first one who has started construction and are aiming for the very high market (apart from perhaps some parts of Porto Brasil Resort) which as I said means they are aiming at a specific niche and the competition is very limited which can only help them. In my opinion, if you are at the higher tiers or the lower tiers, your possibilities for a solid exit strategy are currently much higher than being in the middle with the vast majority of the other developments.

    Regarding rentals, I live and work in Natal and during my time here have rented two apartments, currently rent a three bed villa and one of the companies in our group handle rentals for our investors - I also do regular market studies on competing developments so that I know what kind of realistic returns our investors can expect to receive on the properties they are buying on our developments. We have a three bed villa development in Piúm and a two bedroom apartment development in Barreta so I've done comparative studies all along the coast between the two both regarding purchase prices and rental expectations and I stand by the numbers I mentioned in my previous post.

    Cheers
     
  8. PropDoc

    PropDoc New Member

    Thanks for the very informative posts from Dale and JMBroad. I take from this that NOC (when it completes) will be something special and therefore command a premium. How much is a reasonable step from 4* to 5*. As an investor I am cautious of projections on yield. NOC looks wonderful on paper and I agree with you, as it is at the high end of the spectrum, it will make for a more secure exit strategy. Are local Brazilians ready/interested in this type of development for holiday or second home use. I expect resales to be directed towards Europeans and Americans, both of whom are likely to be dealing with economic woes and property debts at home (cf Spain or the USA). What is the demographic of people buying 4* developments in Natal now :questionmark: Who do you feel wll be interested in Natal in the next 3 years. Will I need to target the WAGs of 2014's footballers.:flowers: :birthday: JM what is the name of the small resort where rooms go for over $400 a night. I would like to take a look at their profile to compare. Thank you both for your info to date. Please can any owners post to give an idea of who is buying in Natal and how you feel about value? Do you know who is likely to compete with NOC in the area and when they may come on line. Kind regards PD.
     
  9. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member

    Hi Propdoc,

    I am not sure who you are talking to about Natal Ocean Club but you should have been given a lot of the information you are asking for already. We have loads of information on NOC, including comparisons to both the local and international markets in terms of pricing and rentals.

    If Regards,
    Rob.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 30, 2010
  10. Sluap

    Sluap New Member

    I have purchased a one bedroom townhouse in Quinta da Lagoa development in Tibau do sul. Does anybody know anything about this area, rental, reasale etc.
     
  11. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

    Is there anyone else working for Experience International?
    The only name we see is Dale.
    A daily rate of USD 400 is not realistic, unless it is per SUITE per day, for 4 people, in high season. What was quoted might well be the (always purposely inflated) Rack Rates. We all know that they are created in order to be able to offer hughes 'discounts'.
    Check HotelsCombined.com for daily market rates and remember that even those 'discounted' rates still include 10-15% commission for web-agents!
     
  12. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc


    You seem to find R$700/week rental high, but in peak season these prices seem very normal, and easily paid by Europeans. Especially when they are right on the beach, and sleeping 4 guests.

    Would these purchasing prices apply to Paraiba as well? I heard this is an upcoming state, with still some opportunities, beautiful beaches and about 5-10 years behind Pipa's prices.

    Do you have any experience?
     
  13. debzor

    debzor New Member

    In my experience you have to be very careful about investing in Paraiba. Everything centres around Joao Pessoa, but here there are really only apartments available.

    There are undoubtedly some beautiful areas, just like everywhere else in NE Brazil, but there are also some ghost towns and desolate areas, where returns on investments are many, many years away.

    This is further compounded by occasional disreputable sales people and companies. Some people I know were visiting a small beach town recently, and were advised by the English speaking agent (and I quote): 'this house was for sale at R$100,000 last year, now they want R$1,000,000; this one was R$200,000, now it is R$2,000,000.'

    The agent was not Brazilian, which seems to make people more trusting...
     
  14. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

    Thanks Debzor,

    I know - that's how realtors work all over the world, so Paraiba is no exception.
    Surely nobody believes a 900% increase in one year.

    Most places that are now thriving tourism destinations were once ghost towns, little fishing villages. That's what made them attractive - especially to those who have seen the world.

    We're looking at some beach plots to build our own cottage.
    Personally I would rather buy through a local agent than one in Spain. Now that their market has collapsed, suddenly all of them appear to have become specialists in Brazil without even living or working there.

    Should you hear of something, please let me know.
     
  15. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    I worked as a hotel manager for some of the most prestigious hotel chains in the world for eleven years and ran both resort hotels and city centre business hotels.

    I managed a travel agency with three branches in three different cities of mainland Portugal and handled both incentive trips and shore excursions for the big cruise liners like QE2 for another two years.

    I have been renting in Natal for the past year and rent a holiday home property every weekend I manage to get away so I have checked what I can get per night and where. I tend to go back to the same place every time but I know prices to the north and to the south of Natal.

    I live in Brazil and currently am part of the management team of a company which handles rental for over thirty properties in Natal for our investors.

    Dale said (and I quote):

    "(...) for beach front high quality properties on a resort which benefits from an array of facilities such as gym, spa, tennis courts, bar, restaurants etc onsite you are looking at rental rates of £200 - £300 per week in the mid to high season."

    In the mid to high season it may be possible, in established tourism destinations like Pipa, Ponta Negra and to some extent Gostoso but the mid to high season in these destinations as Rob said is relatively short. Outside of these destinations I don't know of anywhere which is achieving that sort of rental return at the moment. As someone else on here mentioned rack rates are quite different from actual revpar (revenue per available room).

    It is possible that NOC will raise the bar and be able to achieve these rates all year round without being in the centre of those tourist destinations - I certainly hope so as it's all good news for Brazil and will give me another place to spend my weekends...
     
  16. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

    When I asked whether you had any experience, I mean EXPERIENCE WITH PARAIBA.
    I had really no intention to step on that obviously sore toe, and I am sorry that it felt that way. Your CV is truly impressive!
     
  17. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    You quoted my comments on Natal's rental market and asked if I had experience in the market - I answered your question with the response I felt was appropriate to explain how I arrived at my conclusions and why I stand by those conclusions.

    Too many people offer their opinions on anonymous internet forums and are not ready to back up their claims with relevant explanation of how they reached that conclusion.

    Simply look at the thread "which country is best to invest in" on the general forums. 99% of the answers are one liners from randomly anonymous names like Surferdude or Captainproperty who then ignore and questions asked of them as to how they reached that decision.

    Many simply state "buy in <random country> because it's nice here" - I think there is more to property investing than just randomly choosing a location with nice weather.

    Even people who have spent a long time investing in a market often just offer up their own opinions "buy here it is great" or "it is a really safe place" without ever providing a source for their information or reasoning behind them so that the forum members can discuss each others opinions in a civilized manner to reach a sensible conclusion.

    If someone asks me a question - I'll try and answer it with the facts - not with opinions. You asked me a question - I answered...that was my only intention

    I did misunderstand that you meant Paraiba - as for Paraiba - no I don't have any experience - I always stay in hotels so I don't know what the rental market is like.
     
  18. debzor

    debzor New Member

    In my definition, there is a world of difference between a Brazilian ghost town and a little fishing village, particularily in NE Brazil.

    The latter suggests plenty of residents in gainful employment plying their trade, with full local facilities and amenities, and happy crime-free communities.

    There are also plenty of the former, where wealthy Brazilians have occasional weekend homes, only used at certain times of the year, and they ship in all their requirements with them as there are very few amenities and facilities available locally. In this case the locals are short of employment, and the holiday homes are there because of the isolation.

    These are less likely to become thriving tourists anytime soon, and it is important not to confuse the two!
     
  19. Felipe

    Felipe New Member

    Hi PropDoc,

    I Have invested in NOC, I have purchased one of the "Ocean Residense".
    I have been looking for a forum where I can chat with another owner as to discuss how there
    purchase is coming along, hope to have a chat with you soon mate.

    Felipe
     
  20. Felipe

    Felipe New Member

    I have bought in NOC, would loke to have chat with others who also have, i have finally
    found this forum.

    Regards
    Felipe
     
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