Will a hike help the Eurozone recover or just cripple the PIGS of Europe?

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BenjaminFX

New Member
Friday 1st April 2011

Positive Employment Data Expected from the US

Reports from the US today are expected to show economic growth among the employment and manufacturing sectors.

As the price of commodities rise and recent calls to review the planned Treasury bond purchase scheme, positive publication should highlight that the world’s largest economy is certainly on the right path towards recovery.

Change in the Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate has been witnessed since the beginning of the year as the number of people in employment rose following negative data in January, which was blamed on the poor weather.

As the Federal Reserve Bank’s members are calling for a tightening of US asset purchase, this afternoon’s publications should be more heavily weighted on the volatility of the US Dollar, also it will be a key influencer on the Fed’s decision to keep a loose monetary policy.

7th April will end all speculation

Speculation over interest rate hikes could be coming to an end as the European Central Bank announces its decision next week.

Since hawkish comments from Jean Claude Trichet traders have been investing in the Euro throughout March, under the expectation the ECB will increase the cost of borrowing for the Euro zone.

Further support was seen as Germany announced that the number of unemployed fell by 55k during March.

Slightly marring this data was the announcement that inflation for the Euro zone has now reached 2.6 percent, above the ECB’s target rate. A hike in base rates would be the best course of action to curb the rising cost of commodities.

With the media’s attention firmly fixed on the Black Swan events in Africa and Japan, little public attention is being paid to the bleak economic standing of the PIGS of Europe (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain).

All of these Euro pegged countries have, or are expected to, need assistance from the International Monetary Fund to bailout their crumbling economies.

However, as the cost of the global financial crisis has hit many hard it would be obtuse of the ECB to raise the cost of borrowing when the IMF has loaned billions of Euros to these financially crippled countries.

Foreign Exchange Rates Table

Currency Pairs Current Mid-Rates at 9.00am

GBP - EUR 1.1351

EUR - GPB 0.8832

GBP - USD 1.6075

EUR - USD 1.4165

GBP - AUD 1.5540

GBP - CAD 1.5570

GBP - NZD 2.1123

GBP - CHF 1.4627

GBP - HKD 12.5010

GBP - NOK 8.8835

GBP - SEK 10.16

GBP - ZAR 10.87

GBP - THB 48.65

GBP - AED 5.9027

GBP - MAD 12.776

GBP - ILS 5.5691

GBP - TRY 2.4747

GBP - JPY 134.44
 
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