The coming housing crisis in Spain - article

[advoco]

In among a few cheery and relatively optimistic prognostications for the New Year I read this. Quite the opposite. The article is thin on substance to back up the rather dramatic headline but in essence they are saying that Spanish property has not crashed so far because the Banks have bought up property and this will come to an end in 2010 as they try to offload. I note that BBVA are predicting a bigger fall for 10 than 09 (12% vs 10%).

The Coming Housing Crisis in Spain, and What It Means for Europe | Elliott Wave International

 

[rowlandsbb]

Heard it all before and whilst it is still difficult 2010 may well be the bottom

Everyone has a theory about Spanish property values but if you stick to basics...location, location, location and keep a level head , then you can find some great buys

Also not everyone has to sell so more often than not the very good properties are not being put on the market

I Know of one development off plan which has just re started with new finance , near Tabernas Almeria where the 2 apartments start at 99.900 €

 

[advoco]

Yes there are as many opinions around right now as there are people to give them. I only posted that article because it was quite forthright. I'm still seeing deals done on the Costa del Sol although obtaining mortgage finance is the biggest headache.

 

[DC]

I think the markets in the US, UK, EU, etc will inflate and the debts will be eased by inflation. The old people and the people in government on fixed salaries will be the ones that get hurt the most, as rising taxes is unpopular, so increasing pension age, so cuts will have to be taken, affecting most public sectors workers. The countries in Spain, UK have had socialism for a while , France, Italy is more to the right, basically all the countries are not doing that great, so some modifications will need to happen. ie. Something got to give across the board.

Hopefuly people will make more rational and logical decisions and there will be less rips offs and corruption as people are more conservative with their cash, and buy with good companies, developers, or buy good quality resales in good areas (talking more about Spain here) but the same logic in any market.

eg. In UK, supply of new property is under demand, other markets eg. Paris has a shortage of around 1 million new build units. And these are not being built quick!

But the Costas have the oppersite they have alot of property. It is cheaper to buy one built then to build one yourself. So some equilbrium occurs.

 

[Gordon]

I was speaking with a couple of Property Agents on the Costa Blanca yesterday and both were of the opinion that this will be a very difficult year for the property market. Neither are expecting too much good news until the latter part of the year at the earliest.

 

[rowlandsbb]

Agree but if the £/€ rate improves more than expected then after the election UK buyers may start to get serious again

 

[Gordon]

I am not an economist but I can't see too much improvement on the exchange rate for some time after the election. It would be nice to think that there will be and a knock on effect for the property market but I can't see it happening for a while yet. The general feeling I am hearing is that this year will be the bottom and then we can start slowly climbing back up.