Property Cycle Questions

[austin]

Hi all,

I've been thinking about this whole property cycle thing, and although I pay attention and know of it, I don?t actually keep up with it. but I know a great website where people do

Anyway, I have a couple of questions, well more ponderings really:
assumptions - I'm basing this thought on the general view that the next upturn in the cycle is due in 2010/11. (if this is incorrect then please correct me and just alter any responses to your number) and I'm assuming a 7 year cycle.

i) Is the cycle from 2003 (2011 minus 7) until now actually doing the same thing as the previous cycles have done?, thus giving a reasonable prediction the 2011 date is still looking good.

ii) What is the general advice on preparing for the next cycle? E.G stock pile cash and equity ready for deposits, or buy loads of property now and sell it when the going is good.

- I already hear the answer (I?ve used myself) of depends on what your trying to achieve mate!... I'm not really after an answer that specific, its more of a general feel of what YOUR doing so I can then review the answers to see if some other strategies may be more appropriate than my plan.... ok so I aunt got a plan yet, ya rumbled me!! but at least I?m thinking about it

also it may spark one of those classic PT debates on what we should/shouldn't be doing to prepare.

Regards

 

[avery]

Hello Austin,
I'll paraphrase because it's been debated lots of times before:

You'll hear Dean say stockpile now. You'll hear Ron say everything points to the next boom being the "boom of all booms". You'll hear Tony Alexander say (not on this forum, but in his own newsletter) say the economy is in for a soft landing so the property market won't fall apart in a hurry, but neither will it experience the big gains again next time round. You'll hear Kieran say the astute investor is reluctant that this stage of the cycle, but is ready to pounce on any great opportunities. You'll hear Olly Newland saying cash up and prepare for doom and gloom. You'll hear others say to be wary at the moment, keep your LVR down, and be ready to pounce once the next upswing happens.

So you'll hear a lot - what you choose to listen to is up to you!

BTW - no one actually knows when the next upturn will happen. A lot of people are speculating it will be around 2010 (because of the 7-8 year thing),but as we haven't even got far into the slump yet, there is a long way to go till we come out the other side. Don't assume any dates.

The best thing I can suggest is to get hold of Kieran Trass's book "Grow rich with the property cycle" (you can buy it here on PT) to learn more. It's probably the best money you can spend at this stage of the cycle!
Many thanks