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NE Brazil Full report

Discussion in 'Brazil Property' started by Golfingworld, Sep 23, 2007.

  1. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    I've just come back from Brazil, I would have been here earlier but thanks to the State Police they delayed our flight by 3 hours in Salvador as they are "in dispute" with the central govt about funding, so they allocated 3 officers to process 650 outgoing passengers to Madrid/Lisbon/London. A fine message to visitors from a country gearing up for mass tourism, not!
    I also drove 50km both north and south of Natal....Chris Rea's "road to hell" springs to mind. North of Brazil passing Genepabu and Pitingu I didn't see a man with a wheelbarrow, let alone any footings for new buildings. The bridge is complete but it goes nowhere..it runs down to a basic B road towards the dunes. The main BR101 from north natal coast back to natal which allegedly passes the new airport is not the best of highways and back into town it transgresses some pretty dodgy areas. The north of Natal is extremely underdeveloped and simply, the villages are very scruffy. There is no infrastructure, shops etc...the restaurants which cater for the "buggy tourists" seem to base their prices on Marbella, not on Brazil. A dish of mixed fish, prawns and langostas cost nearly £30 for 2! As I thought, the place to be is Ponta Negra where there are lots of cheap run down houses that with some re-fitting can indeed yield a good profit. Plus the area is compact, easy to get around good shops, communications and hiper markets. It seems relatively safe and secure and taxis are cheap no more than a fiver to get anywhere. I did the same run to Pipa, which is very nicely done but not much cheaper than the Costa Blanca..the road to get there is your worst nightmare, pot holes on the side roads and the main highway....terryfying! There were 80,000 road deaths in brazil last year, 120 last holiday weekend!
    if you have bought north or south of Natal, or are thinking, set aside 10 years before there is a sniff of profit or growth. Pipa in the south is far better than Maracajau in the north as there is simply no infrastructure inthe north. Ponta Negra is the place to make money....or maybe Pipa, but brace yourself for a rough and difficult ride in the process. Salvador forget it, maybe up the coast to praia de forte but otherwise the city is snarled with traffic and needs a good coat of paint. Not to mention the 2 hours wait to get in!
     
  2. nickohorny

    nickohorny New Member

    why are you moaning at such early stages? what i don't understand about you is that if you are so persistant on Brazil failing, why keep researching, why go there and look so hard for yourself? You already expressed you was not interested in any investment opportuinity it had to offer before didn't you?

    These same concerns over infrastructure and underdeveloped villages can apply to parts of the Carribean, India - Goa etc... this dosen't stop people visiting.
     
  3. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member

    GW,

    You seem to have forgotten to mention that there were road works on the way down to Pipa as they are making the BR101 dual carriage-way. I am not sure about the dodgy areas you are talking about in Natal, I saw some really dodgy areas in Salvador and Rio, but never anything to be worried about in Natal ever. Not sure about the 80k deaths each year, last I heard it was 34k, but neither number surprises me in a country of nearly 190 million (US has 43k p.a. to add some perspective).

    As for Pipa being a sort of ok place to buy, I think you need to talk to the locals that run the pousadas and resorts, there are resorts there with 70% occupancy. Also we get at least one request a day from Brazilians asking if we have anything to rent in Pipa (and this is to a website written only in English!).

    Rob.
     
  4. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    I was in a pousada in Pipa last week, in room number 2, the other 50 rooms were virtually empty, there were about 4 people staying there. I stopped at 4/5 other hotels, all the same..so where do you get your 80% occupancy from? The other 51 weeks of the year? Natal was also deserted, more sellers on the beach than tourists! The journey off the main BR Highway to Pipa is 25km down a narrow potholed road, which is quite dangerous and I wouldn't like to do it at night. What I am doing here is putting the real view from an "investor" and not the tainted view of a seller. Road deaths, read the local newspaper its all there, Sept 7th was National weekend 120 deaths. The reality is that Brazil is miles away from sensible development and it is extremely difficult to get there. Even when you get a flight it is a very laborious journey. The rental potential in NE Brazil is not at all good and is unlilekely to be so for at least 5 years or more. Plus, when and if the famous new airport opens this makes is 30/40 mins longer to get to Pipa! In my humble view, there is only one place to invest in Natal and that is Ponta Negra for the reasons already stated.
     
  5. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member

    GW,

    I didn't say 80% I said 70%, I also did not say every pousada had that sort of occupancy rate. Why don't you give me the names of all the 4 or was it 5 hotels you just dropped into and just casually asked what their occupancy was like? Also what was the name of your Pousada, I don't think I know of any in Pipa with 50 rooms, hotels yes, but pousadas no.

    120 deaths on National weekend equals 21,900 per year if you assume that 60 deaths occur each and every day. That isn't 80k at all. That means twice as many people die on the road in the US than Brazil .... Not sure how Pipa will be an extra 30/40 mins from the new airport when they are building new highways everywhere (think new bridge and br101 south of Natal).

    As for the profits, if you had done your research you would have found that a lot of people are making profits already both through capital appreciation and rental income. Yes this is not happening in the north yet as most developers are only just starting to build there, but it won't take forever if Natal and certain places south of Natal are any example to go by.
     
  6. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    My friend, would I be making a misjudgement if I was to assume that you are inferring that I am not telling the truth about my visit to Pipa and Natal? Just look at it this way...if you are going to make wild claims about the potential for property equity growth, rental value or any other statement, then sooner or later you will get caught out. The fact is that in my estimation there wasn't a hotel in Pipa nor Natal that had more than 10/15% occupancy during September. You ca walk into any hotel you wish in the area, put cash on the table and get 20/30% off the price. If you like I can email you pictures of an empty beach in Pipa..or will you dispute that too? The reality is that you (and many others) have been trying very hard to "talk up" the potential of properties in NE Brazil and slowly and surely I am refuting these claims. There are hundreds of people who will see this site and read the posts and they will make up their own mind as to whether I had to sleep on the street, as rather like Natal in Jerusalem, all the Inns were full! The simple fact is that there is no massive rental potential anywhere in NE Brazil except perhaps from Dec 15 to Jan 30th...and then if you read other posts the UK Thomson flight is £900! Don't go at me because you have been caught painting an over rosy picture, have a look inthe mirror and decide how it might be best to really convince your potential cutomers to buy. One word..credibility.
     
  7. deedee1

    deedee1 New Member

    :) Hi all,

    GW- LONG TIME NO SPEAK TO HOW ARE YOU??

    RE: Brazil quiet well at the moment Im not surprised as its not holiday season at the moment for either brits, europeans, usa or south americans- in fact like you said the next season will be xmas time now!!

    Yes flight prices wont help but thats the other discussion -as we all know so well!!

    The development on NE brazil is only really starting to take shape now as its still very early days!!:D

    The airport being built, the bridge is almost ready, they are currently building the carriagways and roads as we speak and resorts and developments have really only been launched within the last 6-12 months- SO YES STILL EARLY DAYS BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN ITS NOT HAPPENING!!

    I mean you didnt expect to go to brazil and see completed construction and adequate infrastructure- in 5-10 years YES I AGREE but give them a chance theyve only just started!!

    Im sure it will be like the buses nothing for ages then all at once- as it normally is!!

    See ya D :)
     
  8. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member

    GW,

    There is no need to insult me, just answer the questions that I asked. I am questioning what you said because I actually do know that you are wrong.

    I too can put a picture up of an empty beach in Pipa that I took in August, there is a very good reason for this as there is a plentiful supply of beaches around Pipa, there aren't enough people at any time of the year, whether peak season or not, to fill all the beaches.

    As for you putting cash down and getting 20/30% off, tell me which hotels did this, I know plenty that don't need to.
     
  9. beenthere

    beenthere Guest

    Hi golfXXXX,

    Good to see you back, also good to see you are back to your old tricks of making stuff up, embellishing the truth, insulting people and of course having no bearing whatsoever to any factual evidence.

    I look forward to finding you out again and again, I thought I had lost you for a while.

    BT
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 24, 2007
  10. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Anyone who is a potential buyer and would like to see the 5% occupied beaches in natal and pipa, only last week, just message me and I'll send you the fotos. Trust me if you dare, but anyone who thinks that the off plan property will firstly be ready on time and secondly yield a 70% occupancy is living in a dream world. If you don't trust me just email one of a dozen hotels in the area and ask for a room. The season in NE brazil lasts from Dec 20th until end March and in August, that's it. Occupancy wont increase because lots of develpments are scheduled, in fact it will go down as there isn't enough airline capacity to get people there. The new highway being built south of Natal is the main highway to Joao Pessoa and Recife not to Pipa! There is another 25km which is an untouched country lane, full of potholes and coaches blasting down there over speed humps...with not a surveyor or road contsructor in sight. In the north the situation is worse....the bridge goes nowhere but to the south of the dunes at Genipabu (60km south of Maracajau) and nowhere near the alleged new airport at Amarantes, where my guide was very emphatic that we should not stop as it has the worse crime rate in Natal. You can all call me as much as you like but these are the facts...this is my third trip to Natal in the last nine months, how many times have you developers been there and where are your fotos which prove me wrong?
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2007
  11. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member

    GW,

    Why don't you post your photos on the forum for all the see....

    Also why wont you tell me which hotels you asked about occupancy rates, which hotels you tried to get 20-30% off, why wont you even tell me which pousada you stayed in whilst you were in Pipa?

    Next time you are in Pipa, walk in to a certain pousada (I will give you and anyone else the name privately, but not on a public forum), put down 20 to 30% less than the asking price for a room and see what happens.
    A place in there cost 60k€ 3 years ago, the last one sold a year ago for 120k€ (a resale), occupancy is 75% year round. I know this as I know the manager of the resort well and secondly I know the people that bought the resale. I also know the manager/developer of another pousada, they are bringing in 70% (I will give you the name as well if you like, so you can try for your discount).
    Now these occupancy numbers are above the average, but what it does mean is that if you choose your development well you can do very well out of it.
     
  12. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    If anyone wants fotos they can message me. My pousada was right on the main street prime location, by the bridge down to the beach. The other pousadas were on the main street or down on the beach..oddly I don't collect hotel names just to substantiate my comments on here. You can currently buy a 2 bed 55 sq metre 2 bed flat 90% complete,15 mins from the beach in Ponta Negra, 10 mins from bars and discos, fully secured with porter, garage, pool, european fittings for £45k or €66k available from Feb 08. Ponta Negra is highly rentable, 20 mins from airport (£15) prime location. Can email fotos of these too if you like. Can also email airtickets, copies of rent a car receipts and hotel bills..still doubting me? Yes Pipa is nice, you feel in Europe not Brazil but it is everything I said, European prices, as pointed out by you above with your prices. Transfers to Pipa are also expensive and tiring. My whole point is that prices quoted by some are ridiculous if one is prepared to do some ground work for oneself. From my research, all the European offered off-plan developments are 15/25% more expensive than the man who goes it alone and to my mind that premium will not be recovered for at least 7 years. Yes prices were lower 3 years ago all round but that is primarily before European Developers and Agents started deliberately over-cooking the prices with false demand. Anyone who has done real research will realise that there wasn't anyone in Brazil that didn't want to sell me a house or a flat once the word got around. My advice to anyone would be to find a local Brazilian and search independently with them as it is amazing the differential in prices....want a name...can email that as well if you like? So my friend, yes I have been there...3rd visit in 8 months and I more or less speak the lingo and have a Brazilian partner who translates the rest...so all angles have been covered.
     

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    Last edited: Sep 27, 2007
  13. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

     
  14. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member

    GW,

    Life is too short, plus we are too busy selling properties, must be all the false demand for them :).

    But I will leave you with this:

    You say in your opinion the so-called premium (which we don't have and will vehemently argue against if we see it) of 15/25% will take 7 years to recover.

    Lets assume that the premium is like you say 25%, divide that by 7 and that means you only expect to earn 3.57% on your investment per year. (for any accountants out there, I know this is not exactly correct because of compounding, the real figure is around 3.3%, but for the sake of argument doesn't really matter)

    Currently the inflation rate in Brazil is 4%, and if it stays the same you will lose 0.47% each and every year on the value of your property in real terms if you didn't pay the premium.

    Sorry but I can't see how YOU could possibly even consider investing in anything in Brazil, whether off-plan or resale. If you believe what you are saying, then put your money in the bank.
     
  15. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Sorry my friend, you've lost me on the maths there.....but trying to fathom what you say it would seem that you are telling me that I am better to pay a 25% premium on today's actual market price and buy today because if I don't I will lose out due to inflation. I must ring all my customers therefore and tell them that today I am putting my prices up by 25%, so as to save them money against inflationary losses over the next seven years! I wish I had thought of that one first..you are right..life's too short..I have empty beaches to sit on and worry about my investments.
     
  16. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member


    Very cute, if you don't understand the maths then I suggest you dont invest.
     
  17. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member

     

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    Last edited: Sep 25, 2007
  18. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Yes you are right, Buzios is 20km (15 miles from Natal) and Pipa 80km (50km in a straight line of there was one). Bearing in mind the quote on your website about 7000km of beaches, can I assume that the other 6920km were full (or at least 70%) and that I must have just gone to the wrong ones? On the basis that Pipa/Buzios or Natal is only "just under 7 hours from mainland Europe" (well it might be with a strong tide, if you dive in at Cape Finisterre, NW Spain) but more like 9hrs 40 from the UK, it is not unreasonable to assume that the three main beaches closest to Europe might reflect more than a handful of people in resorts that are booming. Caveat Emptor!
     
  19. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member

    6.5 hours from Lisbon last time I went that way.

    The reason why you buy in Brazil is because the beaches aren't packed, go to the costa del sol if you want that ...
     
  20. beenthere

    beenthere Guest


    GolfXXXX,

    How come you don't remember the pousada name like robh asked you three times? You didn't stay there did you? it sounds like you were telling a porky, tsk tsk...

    Why don't you show some examples of the difference in prices? I don't mean you writing them on here, I mean you directing people to websites with the different prices. After all I have caught you out a few times making things up so I would like to be sure u know....

    BT.
     
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