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Brazil: Hotspot Or Not..?????

  1. Hotspot

    23 vote(s)
    92.0%
  2. Not

    2 vote(s)
    8.0%
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Brazil: Hotspot Or Not..?????

Discussion in 'Brazil Property' started by deedee1, Jul 31, 2007.

  1. deedee1

    deedee1 New Member

    :)Hi all,

    Would like to know peoples views on whether brazil is becoming a property and investment HOTSPOT or NOT..???

    Personally I think that brazil is fast becoming a property and investment hotspot- currently one of the fastest in the world!

    With so much changing so quickly- with investments flooding in and massive infrastructure and development improvements that are being made!

    With numerous luxury resorts and facilities being built in a tropical climate with paradise on your doorstep!

    What do you think...????

    See ya D :)
     
  2. deedee1

    deedee1 New Member

    Re: Investment News!!

    :)HI ALL,

    FOUND A VERY INTERESTING ARTICLE AND VIDEO REGARDING BRAZILS INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC SITUATION!!

    The video has interesting facts on it - if you have speakers then fire away!!

    Brazil Property Investment. Property Market Potential

    See ya D :)
     
  3. robh

    robh Administrator Staff Member Premium Member

    Hi Lisa,

    I agree with most of your sentiments, but I don't think the volume of new properties coming on the market is anywhere at the levels required to create a bubble. Whilst there is a lot of building going on it is tiny compared to what is still going on in Spain and in Dubai.

    I do agree you should get in fast though as our latest development here is nearly sold out after only a few weeks. I know the owners of another 2 developments in the area that were built years ago and they are still running them as resorts and have been making excellent rental returns for their clients since then and look likely to for years to come.

    As you say use a good agent to find something to suit you and your budget and always, always get a lawyer to act on your behalf.

    Regards,
    Rob

     
  4. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Due Diligence

    I read your website in relation to Brazil, above you speak of "Due Diligence" which to me means facts and figures, not broad statements. In view of the fact that you recommend "Due Diligence" please can you be specific and tell me which particular airlines actually offer flights to The Fortaleza region? To quote you..... "Both Gatwick and Manchester now offer weekly direct flights to the Fortaleza region."

    According to my research not one airline from The UK offers direct flights to Fortaleza, TAP may do a transit flight via Lisbon, but no UK Charter or Scheduled airline goes there! I have just run an internet search on three major airline search sites and there isn't one charter flight out of the UK into Fortaleza in the next six months. There are only two airlines quotes, Lufthansa via Frankfurt and TAP via Lisbon. The cheapest price is about £700. So please explain how your "due diligence" has come up with such rash statements? Sorry to be to the point, but if you make claims, please back them up. If you have done a lot of research into Brazil, please explain why you have got it so wrong on the flight situation? Communications are the key to good expanding "off plan" property markets and those simple, easy, cheap communications just do not exist at present. You don't claim, the future, you claim the present.."now offer weekly flights"..the key word being now! This is not correct. To my mind the huge concern with Brazil is not the bubble bursting, but it being burst before it even starts. What will burst the bubble for investors is demand and prices being unreasonably inflated without the real demand to back up these claims. Clearly, sellers have to try and create a demand and sell the alleged benefits of investment,but there are degrees in how you go about this and I think that inflated and incorrect claims about "easy access" are not, in the long term good for you or your potential investors as there will e a stage in the game when the "stark realization" will occur. I find it quite amazing how you indulge in telling people to do their "due diligence" when you haven't done it yourself. This is going to bring me a lot of flack, but I am a serious investor and claims like this are not good for the long term market and others less cynical than me might believe you. Boom and bust is no good for anybody, least of all or Agents that have to explain to their original buyers why they are dumping properties at a lesser price than than they had predicted.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2007
  5. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    "Due Diligence" means that a purchaser, be it of a business, business asset or personal asset obtains proper and correct analysis of the commodity being offered for sale. This is normally undertaken by experts, accountants, auditors, merchant banks or secialists in that field. That diligence means not only the financial analysis and audit, but intangible assets such as goodwill. In the case of property for investment purposes that "due diligence" means a proper and correct study of the overall propostion. Property offered on a specualtive basis, for potential investment gain, means that a capital gain is expected, based on two factors, asset value increase and income from rental to offset against purchase costs or overhead costs. So, this proposition is totally related to potential demand in the market place. This demand can only be there is there is smooth, simple, easy and cheap communication to bring both "renters" and more purchasers to the market. It is know in laymans terms as "supply and demand". There will be no real demand if consumers cannot get there easily and at the right price, as they will neither be willing to buy nor to rent. But, more importantly, you claimed "now", not in the future. You also claimed extensive research into Brazil and quoted Fortaleza "region" specifically.These direct flights that you claim, neither exist now, nor did they exist 6 or 12 months ago...so how good was your extensive research? In my book, this is what is known as "talking up the market" and as we all know, that is why properties in Spain are now worth 20% less than what people paid for them! You talk up as much as you want, but how good is your advice if you can't even get the flight situation correct? Furthermore, there is no direct flight (from the UK), be it charter or scheduled to either Fortaleza, nor Natal for the next 12 months, apart from a one off Thomson Charter. Please see my flight thread on how this is also very restricted. So, in the next 12 months only 350 people a week and only until April 2008 can go direct from Gatwick to NE Brazil! Of 350 people, more tha half are going to "all inclusive" Thomson Hotels and not to stay or buy "off plan" properties. I don't have a problem with being told "this aint going to be easy,but if you fancy a punt, this might be a good one". What I do have a problem with is being told that all I have to do is walk out of my front door and bingo, I am in Brazil for easy money.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2007
  6. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    So then please tell me which airlines, from where and what time were flying to Fortaleza at the time of your post on your website? At no time in the last 12 months has any airline, be it charter or scheduled flown from Manchester or Gatwich to "the Fortaleza region". My intention is not to get your back up, it is to dispel wild statements about the property market in NE Brazil If you din't think flights to Fortaleza were relevant and relevant to the overall proposition, why mention it so clearly. You know as well as me that communications are vital to the alleged capital gain that will be made. I am dealing in facts and just because I challenge your claims, doesn't mean i want to get your back up. What it means is that I am challenging "wild and innacurate statements" about the real potential of this market. If your flight statement wasn't wild, please prove it, beit for last year this year or next year. If you can't prove it, please don't say it. Water has a way of finding its own level you know.
     
  7. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Hi Dee, never mentioned nor indicted you..misunderstanding. I quoted my thread on trying to book a flight to Natal with Thomson and it failed as they won't take bookings over 2 weeks. It seems that all threads lead back to me and flights. Nobody wants to see flights as relevant when they realise that it is easier and cheaper to get to Katmandu than Natal. But when they want to sell you a "dream in NE Brazil" everyone from Lindburg, Freddie Laker and Branson is setting out from Stanstead to Natal.
     
  8. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2007
  9. deedee1

    deedee1 New Member

    Re:flights!!

    Hi all,

    GW- YET AGAIN THIS IS A HOTSPOT FORUM??? As much as I appreciate your dedication and passion about the subject of direct flights there is a thread for it SPECIFICALLY!!!!

    Regarding you mentioning earlier in a post about being re-moved from other threads and placed onto the flights thread- I was the one who moved the posts to keep the correct topics in the correct locations???

    The debate on flights does not need to be spread across the entire brazil forum- as there is more to life than just this subject!!!!

    Will be back soon to catch up on the gossip!!

    See ya D :)

    P.S- I do admit GW you have definately spiced up the forum abit!!!!
     
  10. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Dee, sorry I am getting a bit mixed up here with my replies and typing...never mentioned your post but was referring to my post about Thomson tweeking flights sales, so you can't book more than a 2 week flight. Thanks for the spice remark....oddly it wasn't my intention, but when I read so many property websites with so much garbage on them I feel I needed to respond. Yes I am controversial, but only because I am passionate about this market and unadulterated bullxxxx is no good for anyone. Not that I am "The Cape Crusader" but there might be someone out there raiding their Granny's piggy bank in the hope that they can jet off from Manchester to Fortaleza for £300, to collect their 1000% profit.
     
  11. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    A good agent is always a useful ally as well, especially an agent who carries out due diligence prior to launching a project in order to be able to advise clients in an open and honest fashion.

    Does that include a good Agent that doesn't know what flights operate to the destination and when?

    Panama....which part? Colon and The Canal Zone or Panama City? Will there be direct flights from Manchester to Panama as well?
     
  12. deedee1

    deedee1 New Member

    Re: Bank Account Debate!!

    :)Hi all,

    Just to let you know that the bank account debate has been moved to the opening a bank account thread!!

    As GW keeps creating more work for me- moving around all these post to where they belong!!

    Take care all- post away!!

    HAPPY HUNTING!!!!

    See ya D :)
     
  13. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    So let's look at the "Hotspot" pros and cons. If you read the sales pitches for NE Brazil it is justifiied by the key premise that prices are cheap and will certainly rise and that there will be a large influx of tourism. This potential rise is justified by 3 or 4 facts, a developing economy, hugh infrastructure investment and a freeing up of restrictive laws on foreigners. All these factors are linked but without question, communications are they key to this, as without a growth in tourism there will not be an increased demand for property sales or rentals. There is internal and external tourism but all the positive arguments surround the assumption that a new airport and bridge in Natal will precipitate this growth. Let's look at the new airport first. It is openly admitted by the Brasilian Authorites that they don't have the finance in place to complete this project and are seeking outside investment/management to fund this project. But, assuming they achieve this, it is hoped that it will be partially open in 2010. London Heathrow is the largest international airport in the world with years of experience and easy access to finance. LHR Terminal 5 will open next year after 7 years of planning and construction. T5 did not need full airport infrastructure such as runways, taxiways, air traffic control, major access etc etc as it is a terminal and not an entire airport, yet even considering this it took twice as long to complete as an entire airport is projecting. 2015/20 is much more likely for a full airport, "one of the largest in the world" than the ludicrous assumption of three years time. Lets look at the likely tourist influx and some numbers. If an extra 250,000 international tourists a year go to Natal (which is a small number) Natal needs to receive another 625 flights a year holding 400 passengers (which is generous) or 12 new flights a week. But the season is not 52 weeks a year, it is roughly 16 weeks (also being generous). That is 39 new long haul flights per week. The Dominican Republic is probably the world's most successful cheap vacation destination with perhaps Mexico. When did they ever experience 39 extra long haul flights per week and they have the advantage of direct flights with non Visa requirements from the USA? (and they are closer than Brazil to the USA, 5 hours max). If there are 39 new flights a week into Natal, primarily from Europe at least 5/6 of these will have to come from the UK. There are only 2 charter operators now in the UK TUI and T Cooke and they are going to add 6 flights per week? Scheduled there are also only 2 operators BA/Vigin..they only operate about 6 flights max to Orlando..so why will they operate more flights to Brazil?
    The new Bridge, apart from it being a major project I fail to see why this will precipitate a growth in foreign tourism? All this bridge will do is assist the movements of tourists from the north side into the city...they'll need it as there won't be a supermarket in the north for another 5 years! Are residents of Natal going to drive north just to drink over-priced caipirinhas and even if they do, how is this going to fill luxury golf resorts? Brasilians don't play golf! Pricing, even if there is an influx of flights, which will never be "lo-cost" airlines prices from Europe will never be less than £400/€600 and if you look at a family cost, individual vacations (i.e apartment rentals) are highly uncompetitive compared to "all inclusive" packages. My guess is double the cost. As tourism "explodes" to NE Brasil, so will all-inclusive packages and most of these will be centred around Ponta Negra for at least another 6/7 years. But even if hotels do open on the north side it will always be preferable for families to go "all inclusive". Rightly orworngly Brazil has a connotation of "danger", robbings muggins etc etc. Talk to anyone about Brazil and they'll say "it is dangerous?" People like all inclusive as it makes them feel safer. So, to my mind these factors are the key to a real hotspot and not the over optimistic manipulation of te facts and the wishful thinking of excited investors. Brazil will be ahotspot alright....but for all inclusive packages, not for one off rentals and sales.
     
  14. deedee1

    deedee1 New Member

    Re: General!!

    :)Hi all,

    OK firstly the bridge in natal is being built for a number of different reasons- primarily to make the travelling distance and time to get to one side from the other significantly less!
    As at the moment you have to drive inland and around a huge lagoon to get to the other side!
    It is not primarily being built to just cater for tourists but is being built as part of the infrastructure plans to connect one end to the other for genegral usage by all!

    Safety issues- Natal is statistically the SAFEST LOCATION CURRENTLY IN BRAZIL! And regardless of which country you are in when you travel there are safety concerns for tourist whether it be south america, america, eastern europe or the caribbean!
    These countries have poverty and crime areas just as we do in london aswell-so you are wrong to just single out brazil on this issue!!

    FLIGHTS- When they are introduced- yes alot will be package tour operators, but like youve stated you can still manage to get a flight on its own from one of these currently operating from the uk direct for £300-400 each!!
    And if an internal flight is need then this will be a small cost ontop!!
    Doing it this way could mean you are still only paying between £400-£500 to get there! In comparison to flights to america, caribbean, mexico- this would be about the average cost anyway!
    Even £500 for a flight with a uk operator and a small connection flight -is hell of a better deal than the current flights to lisbon then too brazil averaging between £800-£1100 each- also the flight time will be alot more as you have to fly the opposite direct then return back on yourself to go to brazil itself!!!!!

    Rental income- Equally People have different tastes and requirements, Package deals are normally hotel resort style accommodation and they do not normally include golf resorts so there is where they will differ!!!
    Those seeking golf holidays will rent accomodation on a golf resort- not a hotel in the hope of playing golf at a neighbouring resort!!

    See ya D :)
     
  15. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Dee, the travelling distance for whom? The Bridge bears no relevance to the geography ... look at a map! The bridge is at 3 o clock, the old airport at 9 o clock and the development area at 12 o clock. The new airport will be at half past ten! So, this bridge does nothing whatsoever to influence the mass transit of tourists to the development area as anyone going north from either of the airports, doesn't touch the river and doesn't have to cross it at the estuary. It is completely out of the equation. What the bridge is likely to achieve is the residential development for Brasilians north of the river and enable them the travel south more quickly to work in Natal. So, even if houses sprout in the north, these locals will not be living in high class holiday resorts and stimulating growth in tourist developments. What it does mean is that toursist can get from the north to Ponta Negra or Natal a lot quicker, where all the shops and entertainment is located. To me this means a southerly flow of tourists (away from the developments) and a northerly flow of locals living in cheaper developments.

    You didn't comment on why Brasil can build an entire new airport (with no money) in half the time that it takes The BAA to build a terminal only. Nor did you comment on why there are going to be more flights into Natal than currently into Orlando.

    Internal flights...yes I really want to spend 13 hours on the road to get there, collect my bags, change terminals, experience much delayed internal flights to get to my long awaited holiday. That's before I struggle to book these internal flights, as I don't have an Amex card or a CPF.

    Danger, just go down to your local pub and ask people "tell me three things you think about Brazil"? I know two, one is Ronhaldino, one relates to the female form and the other will be getting mugged.
     
  16. deedee1

    deedee1 New Member

    Re: Facts Not Theory!!!

    Hi all,

    GW- I see you avoided my response to the safety statistics???I s that because I am talking facts now and therefore you dare not to criticise or challenge these FACTS as you will be gunned down in flames??

    Also the bridge will service all mankind so there is no issue here apart from the one that you are persistant to create!!!

    FACT- The brazilian government choose not to invest more as it has been a slow process for them -THEY HAVE STATED that they are handing over the further build and development of the airport to a private company to finish as they will build it QUICKER and to a better quality!!
    The reason is because in brazil the aviation authority is made up of TWO companies that currently operate it- The military and an aviation company-This is why there are so many problems with aviation in brazil as they are made up of two bodies who struggle to communicate, negotiate and work together on every level!!
    Brazil knows this hence why they are trying to change this and are tring to create ONE aviation authority and body only to head brazils aviation- instead of two!!!!

    RESIDENTs- As far as Im concerned brazil is a country that WILL NEED tourism to grow, along with its exports and enegy supply that it has to offer- these are the 3 things that analyists have predicted is what will make brazil one of the main economies in many years to come!!!
    So to predict this and STILL GO ON ABOUT "WHOS GOING TO GO THERE??? AND HOW CAN YOU FLY THERE ....????Yadah.... Yadah......Yadah!!!
    Still seems to be unrealistic to me...!!

    I agree that there is a bit of possible overhype about brazil.....But all the anylists and Stats surely cant be wrong... and you are the only one whos right...????:rolleyes:

    Look we need more, facts figures and economic indicators instead of "
    "he said , she said"- Its wearing very thin with me now!!

    See ya D :)
     
  17. tim

    tim New Member

    Dear Mr Half A Mug ( Gw)i Think Thats How You Refered To Your Self In A Earlier Ramble, I Think We Have Got Your Point That You Dont Consider Brasil As A Good Investment Not Now Not Ever Why You Persist In Wasting Such Time Banging On And On About It Makes Me Think You Lead A Very Sad Boring Life ,train Spotter Comes To Mine Or Should I Say Plane Spotter,now I Could Only Just About Tell The Difference Between A No 10 Bus And A 73867654 Plane ,but What I Do Know Is That I Have Just Returned From Natal With My Wife Who Happens To Be Brasilian And If What Your Saying That It Is A Big Wind Up By The Brasilian Goverment Then They Have Done Hell Of A Job ,her Sister Lives In Natal With Who We Stayed She Is A Doctor ,we Were Introduced To Many Professional People Who Live And Work In Natal We Told Every One We Were There On Holiday Which We Were ,but We Had It In Mine That We Would Check Out For Our Selfs This So Called Property Hot Spot.it Soon Became Apparent That Not Only Have The Goverment Fulled Us Europeans But They Also Have The Rich Of Brasil,because All These Doctors ,solicitors Ect Have Bought Land There.
     
  18. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Tim, if I was less "sad" would the airport get built quicker and how many property developers do you know that can do cardiac surgery?
     
  19. tim

    tim New Member

    At That Point I Became Much More Interested And Decided To Have A Bit Better Look Around ,we Went North To Maracuja, Whilst I Have Been To Brasil Several Times This Was The First Time In The North And I Have To Say That I Was Utterly Blown Away By The Fantastic Beaches And Clear Blue Waters ,in Maracuja We Found A Land Agent And Got Talking To Him About The Area And What He Felt About What Was Going On There, He Showed Us Plans Of The Coast Line From Natal To Maracuja And Beyoned And Now This Is The Interesting Part Big Chunks Of Land Have Been Bought By ,english,spanish,italians Norweigns,danish And Wait For It Americans So As I Said Hell Of A Con Isnt It That Just About All The World Have Fallen For It .now I Am Only Small Time Property Investor ,but I Do Have Several Other Very Prosperous Business Which I Have Built Through Hard Work And A Lot Of Gut Feelings I Got Into Spain 20 Years Ago With The Same Gut Feeling As I Now Have About Brasil It Really Has Got Agood Feel Factor About The Place .go See For Your Selfs We Went Heathrow Lisbon Natal No Trouble For About £600 You Wont Be Disappointed !
     
  20. tim

    tim New Member

    Confirmed Half A Mug (gw) Very Sad Forum Watching On A Saturday Night !
     
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