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Interest rates increase? Buy to Let getting tighter? Capital Growth rapidly increasing

Izzie Aslam

Izzie Aslam

New Member
Hello Investors



Quick blog to wrap up the festive season. I will try to keep this short and simple.



Everyday we are hearing various information regarding potential interest rate increases next year. house prices increasing at a rapid speed, supply not meeting demand, stamp duty increases etc.



Well this is my view its simple interest rates have been low since march 2009 so only one way to go is up so who are the winners and losers?



America had increased its rates first time in a decade this doesn’t mean we will or should but what it does signal that a change is about to happen in the next 12/18 months in the UK. So at the same time the government is trying to increase its powers or at least hand down its powers to make BTL less profitable as the years go on but I really see this like a game of chess it checkmate really.



If buy to let slows down there could be serious consequences as there will be no buyers so if you have nothing to buy you have nothing to rent out, so the UK lacks housing by a considerable margin, so whatever targets the government has set to build more houses every year its not enough as population is increasing faster than the government is making more houses.



Increasing stamp duty for buy to let will only make landlords increase their rent and charge additional fees e.g parking permit. But the whole point the buy to let is booming is because first time buyers (FTB) cannot save and buy, as wages are stagnated, unemployment levels are still quite high so its taking longer to save and buy so every time you are ready to buy the house prices are going up so you have to save more so what’s really happening is every time you are getting close to having the money to buy the market is moving much faster than people are saving.



So buy to let landlords who are experienced will find other loop holes and operate more as a company rather than building an individual portfolio what this also means is making buy to let more stringent its not helping or even reflecting to help first time buyers the government has its own agenda here.



What really needs to be done is stamp duty for first time buyers need to be removed completely, also deposits needs to be relaxed and interest rates needs to fit for purpose according to each individually borrowing circumstances



please share your thoughts ?
 
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Nicholas Wallwork

Nicholas Wallwork

Editor-in-Chief
Staff member
Premium Member
Well Izzie, rather mind dump festive post but shows the sentiment in itself... a lot of un-certainty at the moment. Your very post illustrates this...

My view is same old, same old. The government wants to get 95% of their taxes from the professional "middle classes" (not that there are classes but you know what I mean) as they always have. This is where the majority of their revenue has always come from and always will come from. The sophisticated investors and experienced landlords will work around any changes in the best way and business will continue. There is still a LOT of business to be done as a landlord and the fact the government won't build stock quick enough will only increase the demand... increasing population e.t.c. less supply = more rental demand and more BTLs needed (even if a little less "profit" on each deal).

It's a bit like the retail industry at the moment in 2014/15... Poundland, The Range, ALDI, discount stores e.t.c. are doing well... less profit per item sold but more items sold. The same will be true with property investment... the margins will be a little tighter so you'll have to do a few more deals to make the same margin; BUT the demand will be there to do just that as smaller investors and one off "buy-to-letters" can't afford to enter as easily.

Maybe a simplistic concept but worth putting it out there as a possibility as to the direction the government is aiming us in...
 
L

Le Seb

Member
I encourage you to read MoneyWeek, they actually have a free 30 days trial for iOS. They have tons of coverage on the new changes.
 
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