WARNING- get out before you get in

[Wannaberich]

hi,
i am back needed a few days off after heavy trading, any way first vishal i am even more disgusted with you first you have no shame your the one who has no respect secondly i have not disgraced my countries as i reside in 3 including india,

you also put yourself down by saying you see through sheikhs eyes wheres your eyes now i can see my self where you coming from...

NOW lets get on with dubai, you can't compare or blame the USA for what's happening o.k some over smart people got hold of mortgages and repackaged them into investment products which oversmart bankers took on their books.

without a doubt dubai has grew development too fast in a very short time, it's intention to bring western atmosphere for example tourists in a country where it's sorrounded by arabs who have no stability i.e iran, iraq afganastan smaller breakaway ex rusian countries who have high curroption and then you got pakistan and india and sri lanka who these countries the rich only could holiday there and besides belive me these countries don't like dubai for the bad news it's had.
india and pakistan have different opinions alltogether about dubai, now india has a huge population that work in dubai but ask many indians would you like to go to dubai the answer is no. india is building it's own tourist destinations like goa, it's cheap offers everything to the tourist that dubai offers including sand dunes in rajastan etc.. and more.

BACK TO USA/DUBAI, dubai's fate has nothing to do with THE RECESSION or the USA. the usa never borrowed from dubai, it's never done any deals with dubai infact it stop DUBAI ports buying USA interests for security reasons. THE USA has never dealt with dubai on a large scale. DUBAI was a dreamers nightmare which is in the making of it's own. USA is well sufficent country it produces food more times over than it needs so recession or no recession it can support itself.

I am not negative or i don't hate dubai some day things will change dubai might be seen as a good buy, i doubt it very much that will happen but i will say this WHEN I WENT TO A SEMINAR ON DUBAI PROPERTIES I DID SAY SOMETHING WHICH HAD THE WHOLE ROOM THINKING.

just think about this for a moment YOU have dubai and what is in DUBAI mainly all western countries have their interest meaning british investors AMERICAN investors other european investors, so what point am i making well since dubai has all the western interests on it's soil think about what i am thinking and think hard very hard........
i will let you know in my next post.....

You're a funny guy.

 

[jonwell]

For you only DOBU,

HEY THANKS FOR SAYING I AM FUNNY I KNEW I HAD A BIT OF HUMOR IN ME...

Dubai is likely to see a surplus of 31,000 residential units mainly due to the decline in the expatriate population, while the shortage of units in Abu Dhabi will rise to 28,000 by year-end, Since peak in mid-2008, average transaction volumes are down nearly 60 per cent (first half 2009 versus first half of 2008) and in spite of the recent slight pickup in transaction volumes, supply overhang in the Dubai property market will reach 28,500 units by end 2009 due to the modest economic forecast and negative population growth estimates,though most of the overhang is attributable to fresh supply and incremental supply from repossessed units only accounts for six per cent of the total surplus in 2009.

Furthermore, beyond 2009, i feel the forecast 3.5 per cent population growth for Dubai is unlikely to absorb the upcoming supply of residential units, which according to Colliers International is estimated at 25,000 per annum over the next three years.
However, i expect the impact of this overhang will largely be felt by recently supplied and upcoming units in new and outer Dubai area, where the occupancy levels are relatively low making price recovery a slow and painful process, even tourists won't fill that gap up..ouch.

In the short span of six months since fourth quarter of 2008, property prices have slipped by estimated 50 per cent on average from peak in third quarter of 2008 in Dubai. The fear of excess supply along with possible risk of defaults by developers and home buyers as well as lack of visibility on future demand-supply dynamics has had a significantly negative impact on transaction volumes. With a 27 per cent contribution to Dubai's GDP, the slowdown in the real estate sector has also had a knock-on effect on other related sectors of the economy. Downsizing and operational cost reduction have led to reduced business activity also putting a drag on hospitality and the retail business.....
more on this in the next post......sell sell sell

 

[Stephendxb]

the other view

Dear Jonwell,

Great post to help speculators understand the pitfalls of short term investing. Property should be regarded as a long term investment, therefore the current market offers a great opportunity to those planning for longer term goals....so as banks start to free liquidity, now is actually a good time to buy. The key is location and price.

 

[Wannaberich]

For you only DOBU,

HEY THANKS FOR SAYING I AM FUNNY I KNEW I HAD A BIT OF HUMOR IN ME...

Dubai is likely to see a surplus of 31,000 residential units mainly due to the decline in the expatriate population, while the shortage of units in Abu Dhabi will rise to 28,000 by year-end, Since peak in mid-2008, average transaction volumes are down nearly 60 per cent (first half 2009 versus first half of 2008) and in spite of the recent slight pickup in transaction volumes, supply overhang in the Dubai property market will reach 28,500 units by end 2009 due to the modest economic forecast and negative population growth estimates,though most of the overhang is attributable to fresh supply and incremental supply from repossessed units only accounts for six per cent of the total surplus in 2009.

Furthermore, beyond 2009, i feel the forecast 3.5 per cent population growth for Dubai is unlikely to absorb the upcoming supply of residential units, which according to Colliers International is estimated at 25,000 per annum over the next three years.
However, i expect the impact of this overhang will largely be felt by recently supplied and upcoming units in new and outer Dubai area, where the occupancy levels are relatively low making price recovery a slow and painful process, even tourists won't fill that gap up..ouch.

In the short span of six months since fourth quarter of 2008, property prices have slipped by estimated 50 per cent on average from peak in third quarter of 2008 in Dubai. The fear of excess supply along with possible risk of defaults by developers and home buyers as well as lack of visibility on future demand-supply dynamics has had a significantly negative impact on transaction volumes. With a 27 per cent contribution to Dubai's GDP, the slowdown in the real estate sector has also had a knock-on effect on other related sectors of the economy. Downsizing and operational cost reduction have led to reduced business activity also putting a drag on hospitality and the retail business.....
more on this in the next post......sell sell sell

Jonwell if you copy and paste an article written by someone else you should state it.
Regards oversupply.Of course there will be an oversupply for the foreseeable future,however,with the off-plan market now well and truly dead,with many
launched but unstarted projects never to see the light of day,there's every possibility that oversupply will become undersupply perhaps from 2012 and onwards.
It stands to reason.Obviously Dubais economy like every other economy will recover.Business will flourish and people will move to Dubai.If the off-plan market does not take off again,and I cant see that it will,then eventually undersupply will occur.Like Stephendxb said,property should be regarded as a long time investment.Already we have seen price rises for both rental and selling in certain pockets of Dubai.

 

[East end barrow boy]

If incorrect forum, thread please redirect:

I have been advised that the UAE will no longer issue residence visas for those 58 year or older.

This would make a complete Bogs of the "retire to the UAE, and live in style" .

As most new laws in the UAE are revised within moments of the issue, I was hoping for a real accurate source of info.

 

[financier888]

pocket billiards

Hi DoBuy - you made reference to rentals and prices going up in some 'pockets' - where might those pockets be? (if I may ask...)

I was just in Dubai - and prices are still falling - even though transactions have gone up - if you take the amount of licensed brokers and divide it into the number of transactions - it works out to 2 deals per broker...!!!

Enumerable units are still sitting vacant with many investors holding on till Cityscape and hoping for a miracle.. In trying to gage future supply and demand - one must consider - 'Who will be attracted to Dubai and for what business?' - I think we'd all agree that what motivated people and businesses to flock to Dubai was the Real Estate bubble & off plan sales - which are summarily dead. Along with it -are the countless businesses and staff that supported the market - from advertising, event organizers, contractors, designers, retail sales like cars, etc. and so on.... Most developers have cut back to minimal crews, with most of the office staff gone... Although the rents and prices are down by 50% plus - Dubai is still a very expensive place to live and with the new visa restrictions - out of the question for most... IF you want to do trading - there are far many more attractive places to set-up... and cheaper - even if you pay the tax.

The other major challenge is the bad publicity Dubai is getting and the simple fact that many investors have been burnt by rogue developers and have no real proper recourse as the laws that was instituted to protect them - are not being enforced...

Retail & tourism - Yes, there was a decent turn out is several malls - (like MOE, Dubai Mall, Festival City and Deira City Center) the other malls are like ghost towns and many visitors are from the GCC to take advantage of the 50-80% sales - largely stores clearing out inventories... Time will tell when the sales are over and you can buy the same goods locally and probably cheaper

Dubai will have much more to do - on the govt' level to induce people to move there - for business, living or retirement...(well forget the retirement after the ban on visa's if you are over 58...ugh...) Long term? - 5- 10 years... unless more surprises surface and changes in laws and regs etc.. In my opinion, these 'shifting sands' have created the most damage to Dubai and it's brand, which is quite unfortunate... Don't expect to see large movements of expats there anytime soon. What attracted the droves - was the ability to make money. When you were making money - you didn't mind the high prices and you put up with what went along with it but that's over and there are more secure and stable places to invest or live. The govt needs to make serious changes and soon... It would be a shame if they overlook or neglect this sad reality because it could be a really great city but as for now - hardly what you would consider 'user-friendly'

 

[Wannaberich]

Hi DoBuy - you made reference to rentals and prices going up in some 'pockets' - where might those pockets be? (if I may ask...)

I was just in Dubai - and prices are still falling - even though transactions have gone up - if you take the amount of licensed brokers and divide it into the number of transactions - it works out to 2 deals per broker...!!!

Enumerable units are still sitting vacant with many investors holding on till Cityscape and hoping for a miracle.. In trying to gage future supply and demand - one must consider - 'Who will be attracted to Dubai and for what business?' - I think we'd all agree that what motivated people and businesses to flock to Dubai was the Real Estate bubble & off plan sales - which are summarily dead. Along with it -are the countless businesses and staff that supported the market - from advertising, event organizers, contractors, designers, retail sales like cars, etc. and so on.... Most developers have cut back to minimal crews, with most of the office staff gone... Although the rents and prices are down by 50% plus - Dubai is still a very expensive place to live and with the new visa restrictions - out of the question for most... IF you want to do trading - there are far many more attractive places to set-up... and cheaper - even if you pay the tax.

The other major challenge is the bad publicity Dubai is getting and the simple fact that many investors have been burnt by rogue developers and have no real proper recourse as the laws that was instituted to protect them - are not being enforced...

Retail & tourism - Yes, there was a decent turn out is several malls - (like MOE, Dubai Mall, Festival City and Deira City Center) the other malls are like ghost towns and many visitors are from the GCC to take advantage of the 50-80% sales - largely stores clearing out inventories... Time will tell when the sales are over and you can buy the same goods locally and probably cheaper

Dubai will have much more to do - on the govt' level to induce people to move there - for business, living or retirement...(well forget the retirement after the ban on visa's if you are over 58...ugh...) Long term? - 5- 10 years... unless more surprises surface and changes in laws and regs etc.. In my opinion, these 'shifting sands' have created the most damage to Dubai and it's brand, which is quite unfortunate... Don't expect to see large movements of expats there anytime soon. What attracted the droves - was the ability to make money. When you were making money - you didn't mind the high prices and you put up with what went along with it but that's over and there are more secure and stable places to invest or live. The govt needs to make serious changes and soon... It would be a shame if they overlook or neglect this sad reality because it could be a really great city but as for now - hardly what you would consider 'user-friendly'

Meadows and Springs are registering increases in sales.
UAE property prices climb | Real Estate
Also Arabian Ranches are registering rises in rents for certain units.
Whilst this by no means signals a return to price rises in general,it still is positive news.
Personally I'm more upbeat on the future of Dubai than you are.In 5/10 years I expect it to be a very different city from what it is today.Jobs in business and tourism will hopefully increase substantially so that Dubai does not rely so much on real estate/construction jobs.
Naturally Dubais economy will recover along with all other countries and obviously
job vacancies will increase along with people moving there to live and work.
Dubai has many reasons to tempt people to move there,tax free wages,sun,great shopping,great restaurants,clubs and bars.The metro will also make a big differen ce.
As projects get completed it will have even more attractions.Tourism has massive potential especially if some of the Dubailand theme parks are completed.
Nothing is certain but I do believe there is much to be positive about regards the future of Dubai.

 

[baba toto]

Dubai Sports City

19/8/09

"Land transactions in Dubai top Dhs136.71m
The total value of land transactions in Dubai today August 19, 2009 peaked at Dhs136.71m, of which sales exceeded Dhs94.10m."

"The biggest area sold was the 37424 sq ft in the Al Warsan First area, which went for Dhs5.39m. A 12211 sq ft plot in the Al Warqa Third Area was acquired for Dhs1.59m, while 10006.41 sq ft of Sport City was disposed of for Dhs4m. "

Source: Land transactions in Dubai top Dhs136.71m | Dubai Land Department

Looks positive to me!!!

 

[jonwell]

hi guys i am back...

dobuy hi,
what can i say hey those arears you have mentioned have already dropped in price so a slight increase in sales well there's all ways idiots who buy when there's a slight drop in price..dubai famously used to boast the highest concentration of construction cranes in the world,now its property sector has investors fighting for the return of down-payments on buildings that might never be built and state-linked developers continuing to fall behind on contracting invoices despite having received billions of dollars in bail-out cash.

when will people get into their heads that things have changed the west is getting poorer and the east meaning china india russia and other as well as japan and etc will have much more money than west europe but will only spend on their own countries not dubai..

dubai i only have 1 thing to say sell now if your holding or get ready to for the worse to come and it will be the survival of the wealthest....

wait to see what dubai government is intending to do with foreign investors with their visas..

oh by the nobody commented on what i said about western interests you guys still don't get it do you....

i will wait to see if any one has the answer... if your waiting for me to give you an answer you will be shocked....

in the mean time get out of dubai....

 

[jonwell]

BABA TOTO

just a few figures you think looks encouraging well ur wrong... their is no positive side to dubai,

you what makes me laugh when people say dubai will recover in 2012 thats bloody 3 years a way by then you can make 1 million+ dollars


wait for my next shocking post.... it is shocking..

 

[baba toto]

BABA TOTO

just a few figures you think looks encouraging well ur wrong... their is no positive side to dubai,

you what makes me laugh when people say dubai will recover in 2012 thats bloody 3 years a way by then you can make 1 million+ dollars


wait for my next shocking post.... it is shocking..

Jonwell

You seem to be a successfull trader which sadly, I'm not. I wish I knew how to make 1million+ dollars!!!! :joyman:

 

[financier888]

going forward

Meadows and Springs are registering increases in sales.
UAE property prices climb | Real Estate
Also Arabian Ranches are registering rises in rents for certain units.
Whilst this by no means signals a return to price rises in general,it still is positive news.
Personally I'm more upbeat on the future of Dubai than you are.In 5/10 years I expect it to be a very different city from what it is today.Jobs in business and tourism will hopefully increase substantially so that Dubai does not rely so much on real estate/construction jobs.
Naturally Dubais economy will recover along with all other countries and obviously
job vacancies will increase along with people moving there to live and work.
Dubai has many reasons to tempt people to move there,tax free wages,sun,great shopping,great restaurants,clubs and bars.The metro will also make a big differen ce.
As projects get completed it will have even more attractions.Tourism has massive potential especially if some of the Dubailand theme parks are completed.
Nothing is certain but I do believe there is much to be positive about regards the future of Dubai.

You make a lot of valid points but are you sure that theme parks are going forward? (I know some have been cancelled...) In many respects - Dubai does have many good things going for it - but the bad press may delay this comeback - i.e. - poor construction - investor discontent, seemingly erratic changes in Visa laws... but ask yourself, 'Where do most of the businesses moving to Dubai come from? - largely India and Pakistan & Iran... the balance - UK, GCC etc - small % -

Most of the large MNC's won't be expanding for years to come - and it was largely the real estate industry / boom that attracted most of the business migration and subsequent satellite industries -and I doubt we'll see another RE boom here for years to come - if at all.. (as it was largely off-plan sales that fueled the market...)

On a more practical side - Dubai is largely a 'secondary market' - meaning 'non-primary residence- I think many are going to very wary before 'jumping-in' in light of the aforementioned and uncertainty about the govt. Even with the price correction - the prices are high (US$250k + for 1 - 2 bedroom),especially with questionable quality construction - additional fees and , (at this point) High maint. fee's with non-professional developer management companies NOT delivering. (which could change as the market matures with Owners Associations - not easy with mostly foreign owned units...) as it stands now, I feel that the Dubai RE market is one of 'diminishing return' - as rents will continue to soften in the come 12- 18 months...

Realistically, Dubai has an 8-9 month biz cycle - in the summer most people bail - that can afford to and then you add the month of Ramadan which has low productivity and the wage base is still high - (not referring to yard labour in construction - we're talking about officer workers, middle & upper management) compared to competing markets in Asia.

I am also not so sure buyers from the GCC will be flocking in - aside from some tourism - as Dubai is also tarnished in their eyes... for some of the reasons outlined. Abu Dhabi may be more attractive - but I wouldn't be surprised to see a shift to Doha in the coming years... In addition, the antics in Ajman will cast a shadow over the entire UAE. Truly tragic what they are doing and with seemingly total impunity. This does reflect on the govt. - (UAE) in which Dubai & Abu Dubai are but a part... It is and WILL continue to affect the overall brand.

I hope Dubai does come back - it's a great city but as previously stated, it needs to be seriously re-engineered, with a more 'user-friendly' municipality. The prevailing mind sets are not so easy to change...therein lies one of the challenges.
Even going through customs - you are left with the impression that the custom officers hold you in contempt. Welcome to Dubai - NOT!

The other Catch-22 is the fact that so much has been invested in the infrastructure based on population growth which will not be realized, the govt' has to recalculate as to 'how' these costs will be recaptured? Some real challenges there... If indeed the prices do continue to drop and I reckon they will - it will bring in buyers but I believe that these buyers will rent the units for income - which does not address the underlying fundamental issues - namely end users that contribute to building the economy.

As of now - existing tenants are largely 'reshuffling' move from a higher priced unit to a cheaper one with some from Sharjah and Abu Dhabi moving in - The govt will need a comprehensive plan to attract businesses, cut the red tape, reduce incorporation fees and develop alternative lower price housing. IF they should consider this course - it takes time, and commitment. One of the problems of course, are the Visa issues ' - which are now federal, so the needs of Abu Dhabi are not necessarily the needs of Dubai..

Let's be honest - Tens of Thousands of investors have gotten burnt - lost it all and have not been protected by the rule of Law. Once burnt - don't expect hordes of investors lining up, cash in hand waiting to 'jump-in'.

Time will tell.

 

[financier888]

new visa changes? (again....) ??

If incorrect forum, thread please redirect:

I have been advised that the UAE will no longer issue residence visas for those 58 year or older.

This would make a complete Bogs of the "retire to the UAE, and live in style" .

As most new laws in the UAE are revised within moments of the issue, I was hoping for a real accurate source of info.

Hi EEBB - is this change official? has this been published in the news? or just on a blog?

thanks

 

[Palm]

never heard anything like this.

 

[jonwell]

hi guys,

visa rules will change that shouldn't surprise anyone it always was in the making,

dubai has lost it's shine and i can never see it return.. and any way even if it did what would drive the prices to go up if there isn't people to occupy the premises.

today i wanted to tell you all something important it's always been in the back of my mind about dubai ever since i have been there seen the building go up..
but i leave it for another day...

baba toto yes you too can make huge amount if you switched to short term investment...

do you remember the days when people were told to buy shares and hold them well now those days were gone long time and same goes for property investment.

when people say long term it's no point buying a property when your 30 for example then holding on to it when you reach 60 and paying the loans on it for say 15-20 years, o.k the value may have gone up but your not going to sell because your emotions are tied to it... but you get income out of it so you have been spending money to finance your living as well, at the end yes you do have a asset but thats how far it will go. now on the other hand if you made 50 thousand or so 3 times a year on short term gains and then built your pot and started huge investment within 5 yrs there's no reason to belive that you can't make millions out of it and live the life you want...

i will be writting an article some day but believe me you can do it...
think about it...

 

[baba toto]

Jonwell

I agree with you on short term property investing, but to do this, one needs to know what to buy, WHEN & WHERE. Obviously, I'd need to look for locations where price has fallen (currently plenty of locations) but where do I start to look??, what do I buy?? & how much do I pay??......I wonder.... cguru:

 

[Wannaberich]

hi guys,

visa rules will change that shouldn't surprise anyone it always was in the making,

dubai has lost it's shine and i can never see it return.. and any way even if it did what would drive the prices to go up if there isn't people to occupy the premises.

today i wanted to tell you all something important it's always been in the back of my mind about dubai ever since i have been there seen the building go up..
but i leave it for another day...

baba toto yes you too can make huge amount if you switched to short term investment...

do you remember the days when people were told to buy shares and hold them well now those days were gone long time and same goes for property investment.

when people say long term it's no point buying a property when your 30 for example then holding on to it when you reach 60 and paying the loans on it for say 15-20 years, o.k the value may have gone up but your not going to sell because your emotions are tied to it... but you get income out of it so you have been spending money to finance your living as well, at the end yes you do have a asset but thats how far it will go. now on the other hand if you made 50 thousand or so 3 times a year on short term gains and then built your pot and started huge investment within 5 yrs there's no reason to belive that you can't make millions out of it and live the life you want...

i will be writting an article some day but believe me you can do it...
think about it...

You are a very negative person indeed.

 

[Palm]

1 million $

 

[Peter39]

Very entertaining this jonwell character –I assume he is related to dick head? However, the chances of a relatively quick recovery of the Dubai property market are good for the following reasons:

1) They have no Plan B. In other words, the ‘powers that be’ have bet the shop on a strategy underpinned by a healthy property market so they have to make it work because they have no alternative.
2) They have the resources to get out of the **** (as opposed to situation in the UK). Abu Dhabi has the money and will always bail out Dubai because they realize that to the outside World the UAE is all one entity and if Dubai gets a bad name Abu Dhabi will also suffer.
3) The fact that many construction projects are being scrapped will help market forces restore the balance between demand and supply.

Unfortunately, the recovery process will be painful and a lot of people (developers and investors) will lose money but then a lot of them spent it on ‘blind bets’ and not too much due diligence!

 

[MarianL]

But jonwell, the problem with short term investment for high gains is that it is risky and at the end of the day some you win and some you lose - most people do not have the capital to be able to go into high risk ventures where they can afford to lose and just move on to the next one and try again. At the end of the day there is no 'guaranteed' get rich quick investment or either 1) everyone would be doing it or 2) it would likely be illegal!

What is the shocking news that you were holding on to tell us?