spain - worse is yet to come - get out

Discussion in 'Spanish property' started by jonwell, Jul 26, 2009.

  1. jonwell

    jonwell New Member

    i have written many items for many companies which have a concern in property.
    they maybe small articles but i have always given at least 4-12 month warning a cycle end and reverse trend happening.

    same i wrote several articles about spain, i know all of british people are stuck and need to get out.

    i have enjoyed this forum and i will be giving tips on what i would do if i owned property in spain.

    i will look forward to further post if you have any questions please ask.
  2. rowlandsbb

    rowlandsbb New Member

    Not everyone want to get out of Spain
    Certainly some do for a variety of reasons but the majority are happy with their property and enjoy the life style on offer either for full/part time living or as a holiday home

    And the majority accept that property purchase is a medium to long term investment on top of the enjoyment they get out of it
    OK just at the moment the values have dropped and no one knows if the bottom has been reached or if not when it will be -same applies to all types of assets in thisa recession..........for many shares and pensions have dropped in value much more
    And if you have cash in the bank then your return has dropped a lot

    Property economics tell us that values will recover- the demand for a place in the sun will continue to increase as people get better off and it depends on the recovery of the EU economies to convert this to an effective demand

    30 years ago a skilled guy working in the building trade could not have afforded to own a property in Spain, in fact they were just starting to be able to afford to go on holiday in Spain!
    3 recessions or so later they can

    After each recession the western economies get richer than before it and this will be no difference

    Not very nice for those who have to sell to the 'vulture purchasers' but the buyers are picking up some good deals
  3. Manzanares

    Manzanares New Member

    Hi John - Do you own property in Spain ?

    As an English person living and working in Spain I know full well how difficult things are at the moment - and not just for British property owners. But equally not all British people are stuck and need to get out.

    I agree with rowlands that the eventual outcome will be an upturn in the market and an upturn if employment etc - the cylcle will continue.

    There is no doubt it is extremely tough for Spain as it is for the UK and the majority of the World at the moment - but if people are in genuine difficulties with their property and have concerns, they should be speaking to their banks, lenders, or legal representatives.

  4. greg

    greg New Member

    I surely agree, the worst is yet to come!

    But getting out is definitely easier than it sounds. Plus as others have mentioned, not everyone wants out, even though it is bad.

    Not to mention the fact that its probably bad, back "home", wherever that may be.

    So what would you do if you owned property in Spain, jon?
  5. jonwell

    jonwell New Member

    my reply to rowlands would that i understand the risk but when we all say the world is in trouble, it isn't, singapore is not in trouble, canada is not in trouble germany is not in trouble how many more examples would you like.

    when you say recession after recession western countries get richer your basicly lying how can that be. yes they have huge debts for example USA is in to china and if you really look at things china is going around buying world assets for example...coal, oil, iron ore, all metals, it has huge stakes in africa, now it wants to become a currency controller, it gives manufactures goods and delivers to countries and in return it recieves money in it's own currency, not dollars or euro's or sterling... so i don't know which planet your sitting on.

    and as for quick recovery well let me tell you JAPAN the second largest economy in the world after USA never saw the rise in property values for over 20 years and most of those 20 years it's been on 0% interest rates so what does spain offer that would get it self out.

    blood on the streets will be there within 2-3 years as it chooses to come out of the euro currency as it's GDP begins to fall sharply, foriegn players would be blamed for this.

    so yes it's no point saying it's a roof over the head when you know your paying for a declinning asset.

    you must remember that what was the reason you bought this, to live happily ever after, this fairy tale was short lived.

    it's no point saying you in for the medium term and values would rise your purely kidding yourself.

    that begs the question what would i do if i was there.... i would get out.
    things will have to get worse before they will ever get better, and if you can't see your wages go up tp the levels of the value of the property the chances are the values will come down fast and before they do just seek legal advice cut your loses and get out....
  6. jonwell

    jonwell New Member

    hi greg

    yes thing at home are bad very bad but when your in a foriegn country and there are barriers and different legal system then thing get worse.

    the british buyers had bought where they were told buy, you see the are always easily led, so spanish builders who teamed up with british sales man knew what they were doing, it's not that credit dried up, it's the banks risk factor who stopped giving out loans.

    any way where the british had bought there is no industry or anything where there is a economy just a holiday resort, you see we british are lazy we like a nice house by the beach plenty of beach babes and bars and that's what rolls in our heads well the spanish knew that and gave the british what they want homes by the sea and themselves more into mainland....check it out yourself...

    now these guys are up to debt the best thing i can say is if your heading for 50 years of age.. quit now and get out no matter how painfull you will get a place in hull which is near the sea for peanuts becuse that's what you will have left.

    i will post on thursday and believe me what i will reveal to you at some stage you will get out.....
  7. greg

    greg New Member

    Hi jon,

    I definitely see where you are coming from. Places like the ones you mention, offer no jobs, no proper culture other than bars and sun, etc. and very little proper infrastructure (public transport, health, etc.). From that perspective I'm sure back home could be concluded as better.

    Nevertheless, everything is relative. There are those that have lived here for 20, 30, 40 years.... Or practically their whole life... For those this is all relative. Here they probably have much more opportunity than elsewhere.

    But all in all I see a definite need for ugrading resorts to actual communities and bringing proper infrastructure, culture, leisure and economy (with real jobs)... Especially to the expats.

    Very curious to hear what you will post on Thursday! Be sure to shoot me a PM to remind me come and check ;)
  8. jacqui

    jacqui New Member

    Not everyone is desperate to get out, I am moving to Spain with my family in September.
    Things are pretty bleak in the UK also!
    We aren`t all vultures, I feel that it is swings and roundabouts, we did not get as much for our house sale in the UK as we would have a year ago, but we do not expect to pay as much in Spain as we would have this time last year.
    We are not looking to make our fortunes, but just make enough to keep ticking over.

    Can`t wait to make a new life for ourselves in the sun!!
    Roll on September.

  9. jonwell

    jonwell New Member

    hi greg,

    Any european community other than the u.k does not really welcome overstayers in their countries and as the u.k is going the same way as being defensive against other rivals.

    french don't like the british, spainish don't like the british, many many europeans don't like us. they have strong cultures, respect to police and other members of the public, i mean here in the u.k people don't have respect for elders nor for parents you have seen what happens on our street we have a different culture to them, our culture is boozing, sex , smoking and were not going to be accepted.

    the idea of integration of communities is a good one but it won't be accpeted, any body moving from u.k or other places is seen by the host country as a threat and nobody would want to lose their jobs.

    spain has it's own problems and it's not just spain it's u.k and a few others, those who thought they could borrow and live on credit including governments have ran out of ideas. france and germany are stable members and will allways be france has a problem which the unions hold it to ransom in which margret thather got rid off here in the u.k. germany is a good producer of quality goods known all over the world they have invested heavily in india china and south america as well as africa but the spanish haven't and including the u.k and other western countries haven't.

    if you go to asia you will see dealerships of auto's and also a manufacting plant to go with it.
    Tables have turned and sooner or later the west is going to regret that the world ever became a global economy.

    you see greg a lazy man in spain or united kingdom is still a richman, but in asia a lazy man is a dead man...
    meaning in the west european any body not working living of the government will get fed but in asia no way out they are good as dead no benifits there.

    i will see you soon...
  10. jonwell

    jonwell New Member

    hi, jacki,
    sorry for spelling.

    i wish you and your family good luck with your move, i do understand in what your saying but u.k is still better option for anyone to staying here as it offers low risk compare to spain.

    if i was to gamble i would choose austrailia rather than a european country it offers much more as well future development and welcomes every one.

    no bodies a vulture when you make a profit, i don't like to see people lose and that's why i try on this forum to say don't buy. i mean there will be oppertunities available later with dicounts of more than 50% as we get deeper and deeper, we have just started and in spain it has to get far more worse than the u.k because of several reasons which i will post in the next few days....

    i wouldn't buy but rent if moving to spain and it's not dead money as you will be able to way offset when you pick a bargain in 2011 or 2012.

    once again wish you and your family good luck in your new country residence.
  11. SPview

    SPview New Member

    You are making some extremely provocative and sweeping statements here! I moved to Spain five years ago with my family. I am in my 40s, work for a Spanish company full time in a senior role, we have friends of all nationalities, and have never felt unwelcome, resented or not accepted.
    Im not sure what your own particular experience of Spain is but I can assure you there are plenty of people living and working here (non Spanish) who are completely happy with their lot.
    You say a lot .... without actually saying anything much at all!
    I would be interested in your own link to Spain ? your experiences here (living or working or buying) so that I can put your comments into better context perhaps?


    Almost forgot - unfortunately we had staff redundancies here in January - it was my Spanish colleagues who lost their jobs, not me ... so that again does not evidence one of your theories.
  12. jacqui

    jacqui New Member

    Nice to hear such positivity, was beginning to wonder if we were doing the right thing!!
    We move in September, my husband is a painter and decorator,and can normally pick up odd jobs anywhere. I have my post grad in operational management, and 22 years experience in social work( elderly care,special needs and child care ) but don`t really want to go down that road,would make a brill bar maid!!

  13. greg

    greg New Member

    Jacqui, if you are doing the right thin go or not will depend on your expectations. Everything has two sides, and while jonwel has made some important points, SPview also shares another side of Spain.

    In the end everything will depend upon your expectations and needs. But knowing what goes on is definitely important if you don't want to get disappointed.
  14. jacqui

    jacqui New Member

    Hi Greg,

    I am going in with my eyes wide open, I am very much a pragmatist.
    We are not going to make our fortunes.
    We are going to give my son the advantages of facilities,and weather to improve his sporting acumen ( gifted golfer and cricketer ).

  15. greg

    greg New Member

    I am happy to hear that and wish you all the best!
  16. jonwell

    jonwell New Member

    please don't get me wrong, when i took interest in spain i bought and sold very quickly as i am a short term investor, i also traded huge amounts in property investment funds and again for short term, now the places that i talk about are mainly tourist arears not inland meaning madrid etc..

    when you look at these places and see how brits act while being there you can understand where i am coming from...
    now when those brits start to enjoy themselves year after year from early nineties they thought these holiday resorts were heavens open to them and by all countries joining the euro, the euro became weak over many years and off course many people bought in to spain.

    the main construction came well after 2001 when most of the european and USA went in to a mini recession and the .com bubble bursted the governments put interest rate well below and people entered the property market in spain and other parts of the world, now if you had bought your place to live in then that's fine you would ride the wave out when things get better.
    but for people who bought in as investments they are the ones that going to need a good stash of cash to support their finances.

    i am not here to stop anyone from moving abroad it's a personal choice,

    when i started this thread i wanted tell the new comer who was going to invest in spain that at this moment of time it would be a bad idea.
    and anyone who is currently willing to get out should do so with out wasting time.

    by the end of this year we will see CREDIT CRUNCH 2 i will tell more about this later in my posts but i hear that people say that banks aren't lending, banks are lending it's people don't want to borrow they are already up to their necks with debt and wages are falling in the western countries.

    if i had a choice again austrailia would be my choice.
    wish you well and your family.
  17. SPview

    SPview New Member

    Hi Jon

    Im an investor myself in a couple of Countries (only on a small scale) and so far Im happywith my decisions - but even with that I dont profess to being an expert on the World property markets.

    The main reason I responded to your recent posts, wasnt really relating to your views/opinions on the market situation or future situation . It was in relation to the very negative and sweeping statements you made about British people in Spain / overseas, how we were disliked, had little or no opportunities and were discriminated against. As I said yesterday this is not my experience at all, and neither is it for friends I have here and in other Countries. At the end of the day you will have good and bad people, good and bad experiences - thats life. But its wrong to make massive assumptions about other people and other Countries.

    Thanks Si


    french don't like the british, spainish don't like the british, many many europeans don't like us.????

    This of course is based on your personal local knowledge jonwell???
    As a matter of interest who don't the British like??

    After reading your posts it's obvious that you're trying to make a quick buck by investing around the world, taking a profit and getting out as quick as possible, little wonder that you believe you're not liked.
    I too have lived in many different countries and not once have I had a problem with other races.

    Your doom mongering seems to be the biggest problem in this case.

    Oh and buying an apartment in Hull as opposed to living a Spanish way of life??? Give me a break, it has nothing to do with the sun but everything to do about attitude and respect
    for the country and people you're living with.
  19. rowlandsbb

    rowlandsbb New Member

    May be more probelms with very poor quality properties which have not sold
    In Spain now you see a lot of mothballed developments but we have seen all this before
    it will come back and it does appear that a level has been reached
    discounts on ready now at 25/30% off original asking prices is probably as low as the banks financing these developments will allow the prices to go.......they will just hold for better times to come

    Whilst no one can call the bottom in most of the well regulated and modern EU economies at current price levels it must be a good time to negotiate that very good life style buy
    As soon as the EU economies start to grow again prices for property, even with a large supply of stock in every country, will harden
    If you take the view as a life style buyer that you have circa 6/9 months to get a good deal then you should not be far the exchange rate as if it gets circa 120/125 then I suspect you will see a lot of UK buyers becoming more optimistic and start buying!
    Just a view
  20. Lysos

    Lysos New Member

    Lenders can only hold on to mothballed developments for so long; they quickly deteriorate, reducing their resale value even further. Also, if & when buyers return to the market (and that won't be anytime soon, in my opinion) they will be looking at resales in established areas; noone wants to be first to buy into a new/unfinished development in the current climate, for obvious reasons. It will be a very long time before the surplus of new builds on the Costas (estimated 1 million plus) are absorbed into the system.

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