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Real Estate prices - 2013

Discussion in 'Brazil Property' started by cariocadagema, Feb 8, 2013.

  1. Real Estate prices.
    Boom or Bubble, till it happens (burst of the bubble) it will be an endless discussion.
    Yesterday it was “breaking” news on Brazilian TV channels and today in the newspapers.
    The figures of the Fipe-Zap + Foundation for Economic Research.
    Housing prices from June/2012 till Jan/2013 = 7 months.
    The prices have stabilized, if not dropping.
    It’s over the top.
    In 7 major cities prices per M2 have dropped (Considering inflation).
    Variation over 7 months:

    Curitiba (-6,1%)
    Brasília (-5,8%)
    Florianópolis (-4,4%)
    Vila Velha (-3,5%)
    Vitória ( -1,1%)
    Belo Horizonte ( -1,1%)
    Recife (-0,6%).

    Winners:
    Niteroi (+5,4%)
    Porto Alegre (+4,6%)
    São Paulo (+4,2%)
    Rio de Janeiro(+3,5%)

    Rio is still the most expensive place - R$ 8.711,00 / M2
    Sao Paulo - R$ 6.922,00 / M2


    Source: Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (FIPE)

    As soon as these figures can be given in English I Will put a link here.
     
  2. Yesterday I bought the "Exame" magazine - 05/02/2013 edition.
    One of the best economical magazines of Brazil.
    On page 63 : prices of Real Estate jan/2012 - jan/2013.
    Also FIPE.

    Recife = + 18%
    Sao Paulo = + 16%
    Rio de Janeiro = + 15%
    Brasilia = + 4%

    No other capitols mentioned.
    But it's clear to see,(see the june/2012-jan/2013 figures) the boom has ended, the market is retracting (negative growth)
    Back to Earth again., but a long way to reach the surface.
    We will get there.
     
  3. Today:
    The Coming Credit and Real Estate Twin Crises in Brazil
     
  4. I think the best way to know what's going on in Brazil is NOT&NEVER believe in the sales talk of the developers or RE agents (or the Brazilian government).
    They will never tell you that you might be a looser in the near future.
    It's the whole economical situation of Brazil that will determine the housing market. And there is hardly any good news to tell now.

    Some realistic information can also been found at the "Brazilian Bubble" site.
    If you like it or not.


     
  5. dhoskings

    dhoskings New Member

    Whatever your name is, and it is no surpirise you are too scared to use your name on here, you are probably the dumbest engineer I have ever come accross.

    Who calls the growth in housing credit going from 54% to 40% the bursting of a bubble or even the start of a crash.

    I think you will find that most of the slowdown in the rate of growth of housing credit is because the "Minha Casa, Minha Vida" side of the market has slowed down.

    But I forgot, you are so stupid that you say Brazil only having a growth rate of 0.5% in 2012 is a shrinking economy.

    Let me explain it terms of engineering, when a hole in the ground starts filling with water the volume of water is growing bigger.

    When the water going to the hole in the ground slows right down, but doesn't stop or reverse, the volume of water is still growing bigger.



     
  6. dhoskings

    dhoskings New Member

    A bit of positive news for you Mr. Stupid Engineer (I am going to call you this until you use your name) it seems that the EU-Brazil free trade agreement talks have sped up.
     
  7. Mr. dhoskings,
    You are an amazing person. You posted a lot in this forum till 2011.
    At least, looking at your profile and open "posts by dhoskings".
    All, every, postings were negative about investing in Brazil.
    Extremely negative.
    You stopped on this forum in 2011, and just came back when (because) I started here, a few weeks ago.
    Now, in your new dream world, there is nothing better than investing in RE in Brazil.
    Something must have changed your opinion.
    I would like to know what, because I want to feel as happy as you do this carnival.
    Was it a brilliant investment you made in Brazil since ?
    (or a love affair with a "Brasileira" ?

    You changed from “Mr. dhoskings DOOM” to “Mr. dhoskings BOOM”.
    Just because of me.

    Let’s go to engineering.

    My honest opinion is this.
    Brazil was an accelerating train in 2003. The FHC governments made big changes in the economy we needed.
    But since then, the PT governments just have sit down, waiting for applause.
    They did not do anything to improve Brazil. Just surfing on the world economy success. They were just interested in votes, in applause.
    They forgot to oil or grease the gears.

    Your perfect "Hole in the Ground example"..
    Groundwater Level (= Lençol Freático in Portuguese).
    The problem with your engineering is that it’s that you don’t look at the future (using the past).
    Brazil’s El Niño (causing lots of financial rains) changed to a La Niña (extreme $$$$ drought). Financial drought the next years to come.
    (Financial) water will stop flowing to your (Financial) hole, then (NOW) it the flow will reverse because of lack of (Financial) rain, the groundlevel will get lower.
    Your hole or well will get dry.
    Tomorrow: dig a little bit deeper to get water.
    2013: dig a little bit deeper to get to the water.
    2017: dig a little bit deeper to get to the water.

    The 1980’s “Sistema Financeira de Habilitação”, the “BNH” busted.
    History is repeating.
    Brazil is Brasil.
    = Not for beginners like you.

    Great talking to an engineer like you Mr. dhoskings.
    Odd Fellows and stuff like that.
     
  8. dhoskings

    dhoskings New Member

    Are you on acid?
     
  9. Veronica

    Veronica Administrator

    OK enough is enough.
    Unless you lot stop bickering and name calling I will close this thread and other similar ones.

    Everyone is entitled to give their views of things as they see them. It is not necessary to degenerate into name calling. Of course agents will have a totally different slant on things and will want to talk only about the good side of the country. But at the same time anyone who has a different view of things is entitled to put their view across.
    So please stop behaving like spoilt children and just accept that not everyone can agree about everything.
     
  10. dhoskings

    dhoskings New Member

    So what you are saying is it is ok for anyone to lie on this forum. Sounds good to me :)
     
  11. Veronica

    Veronica Administrator

    I have no idea if anyone is actually telling lies or if it just a matter of seeing things from a different viewpoint. I suspect that no one is actually lying just looking at things differently. My question is what would anyone have to gain by telling the bad side of buying of in Brazil? Of course the agents have a vested interest in making things look good as they want to sell properties but I am not saying that they are lying either.
    This is a discussion forum and people are entitled to their opinions.
     
  12. dhoskings

    dhoskings New Member

    Ok, whilst I dont care either way, what you are saying is that if I say everything you wrote on your website about property in cyprus is a total fabrication, then I am just expressing my opinion?

    I can see the defamtion lawyers are going to have a great time with this forum :)
     
  13. Veronica

    Veronica Administrator

    A certain member has already had a warning. If someone is saying something which is acutally defamation then that post should be reported.
    There is a warning triangle at the top right of every post and this should be used to report such posts. It is helpful to give an explanation as to why the posts is defamtatory so that admin can take the appropriate action.
    I am now asking again that people stop bickering and name calling as itdosn't help anyone.
    Please use the reporting process in future.

    Thank you
     
  14. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

    Do we ever learn from the past?

    From the original Reales and Réis until 1942, through several Cruzeiros, a Cruzeiro Novo, a Cruzado, a Cruzado Novo, and a Cruzeiro Real or URV, Brazil arrived only in 1994 at their relatively stable Real. During these many centuries the country has been fighting several periods of high inflation and even hyperinflation.
    Why would anyone assume that this does not come back?

    Out of fear, people in developing countries prefer to forget their negative past, and remember only the good stuff. I appreciate that - it is a natural thing to do.
    But it is not realistic to assume that because things have been going fine for the past 15 years, with relatively low unemployment figures and inflation, that things cannot change.

    Look at what the Mafiocracy now is trying to achieve in Argentina, where, amongst other industries, the once very successful property market has collapsed completely now that Pesos are the only acceptable currency.
    Crime has become rampant and tourism in Punta del Este, which has always depended largely on Argentine tourists, dropped instantly with 15%.
    Food prices have been frozen, creating a black market everywhere else, driving prices up.

    The developed West is rapidly heading down this path. Europe is beginning to impose capital controls, and the IMF has sanctioned them.
    Look at Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal.

    Why not learn from the past?

    There have been many signals on the wall for anyone to see. When one wants to ignore them - fine.
    But don't get back later and say 'wir haben es nicht gewusst'.

    A simple example:
    Not too long ago I was staying at a friend's apartment. A nice 38m2, 1 bedroom apartment in a 2005/6 building, 100 meters from the beach, and with good views. Because of the almost constant damage and theft, they had stopped renting it out, and only used it themselves a few times a year, when in Brazil. I warned them that major maintenance overhaul was going to be necessary, which would increase their monthly condo fees from BRL 320 to 500 or even more. That it would be wise to sell now, and perhaps invest the cash in one of the many other fugly buildings in the immediate vicinity. One that would be finished in the next 6 months, in time for their next visit. One with better quality material, much lower Condo fees and easier to rent or sell again.
    So when a neighbour offered 220.000 in cash I told them to sell. The EUR was around BRL 2.20, and they would have made roughly EUR 100.000 before costs. They refused as they were told that the Real was going to do much better around the FIFA World Cup in 2014, even though the nearest stadium over 200 km away.

    Meanwhile the monthly Condo fees stand at BRL 570 and a similar apartment in the building was just sold at only 170.000, or EUR 62.000 at the then EUR/BRL ratio of 2.75.

    An avoidable loss of 38%.




     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2013
  15. I bought my property in 2010 for R$ 100.000,00
    Now I want to sell it for R$ 150.000,00
    Why ?
    Because my RE agent told me so.
    Does he sell it ?
    No, I'm waiting to sell it for 1 year now,
    Does he sell it for the original R$ 100.000,00
    I hope so, but I don't think so.
    Why ?
    Because all my neigbours are trying to do the same, for months, years.

    Do you think there is a bubble (Brazil)
    What is a "Bubble" ?
     
  16. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

    bub·ble /ˈbəbəl/

    bub·ble /ˈbəbəl/
    Noun
    A thin sphere of liquid enclosing air or another gas.
    Verb
    (of a liquid) Contain bubbles of air or gas rising to the surface.
    Synonyms
    noun. blister - vesicle - bleb
    verb. effervesce - boil - gurgle - seethe

    and

    Economic bubble - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia





     
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