Property Brasil - Price Variation Index

Discussion in 'Brazil Property' started by Norbert, Mar 25, 2013.

  1. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

  2. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

  3. Joachim

    Joachim New Member

    Norbert,

    Is it possible to get any info like this on the Natal market?
     
  4. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

    wishful thinking!

    You know that whatever positive happens in the south of Brazil is being (ab)used in Nordeste. Even when it has nothing to do with it.

    Ask any educated person in Rio, Sao Paulo, Belo Horizonte or even Brasilia and they'll tell you that the Nordeste is, in many ways, a completely different 'country'.
    It has a different 'language' and very different working and business ethics.
    It is the Wild North ...


     
  5. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

    No, from a home in Brazil.
    I have been coming to Brazil since the 70s, probably before you were born, and I know the country well.
    If there's anything I can help you with, do give me a call.


     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2013
  6. Norbert

    Norbert Senior Member <br /><img src="http://img.propertyc

    I don't live in Natal.
    Exactly what is it you need to know?
    Most information about what is happening in Brazil, from the number of killings per day and per date, to the average market price of cement, are available online.
    You would need to make sure that it comes from a neutral source.

     
  7. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    These are the Fipe/ZAP figures taken in 16 big cities in Brazil.
    Natal not included, Fortaleza, Recife and Salvador yes.
    But.....
    It's based on "ASKING" prices not real "SELLING" prices.
    Asking prices per M2 on the ZAP internet site.
    We all now that RE is for sale now for a long time, years sometimes, asking a high price, but not finding buyers.
    Yes they sell, but giving an every time greater "discount".
    But you won't find the real selling prices.
    In a few places prices are just rising 2%-4% / year above inflation, but most cities iqual to inflation or even less now.

    So these are variations based on internet RE offers.
     
  8. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    We all know that, we (200million) see that.
    Just reading magazines like EXAME or VALOR and newspapers.
    Walking around you see property for sale for more than a year.
    The biggest construction companies like Gafisa, Cyrela etc have seen their profits drop dramaticly the last year, almost negative. They have lost their value on the BOVESPA. They are building less.
    They are giving (have to) discounts up to 30% now to get rid of their new build apartments.

    So, just read EXAME, the diference between the FIPE/ZAP "ASKING" prices and the real "SELLING" prices is getting bigger.

    Member of this forum NavarS wrote this 1 month ago, describing the situation you see all over Brazil:

    A living example of this are developments in Pipa, in 2007 for sale for R$ 180.000,00, now 2013 still for sale for R$ 180.000,00.
     
  9. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    All these stories about a "booming" country.
    Brazil is walking backwards, quick.
    Education, healthcare, infrastructure .......... it's getting worse every day.
    This morning in the newspapers (IBGE), industrial production is the worse since december 2008.
    Look at these latest figures:

    [​IMG]


    Brazil is not shifting to the left, to No 1 the best, but to the right, No 144 the worst.
    Although Argentina has big economical (and political) problems, some suggest to kick Brazil out of the BRICS and replace it by Argentina.
    We will have the "RICAS".
    What world soccer and Olympics will do good for us.
    We need schools, hospitals, roads, efficient ports and so on.

    Leading (not!): Brazil ranks 107th out of 144 countries assessed for the quality of their infrastructure
     
  10. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    This is the FIPE/ZAP statistic for price rises in SP/RdeJ
    You can see it's downgoing and stopped at July-2012.
    If you download the lates FIPE/ZAP report beginning 2013 you se the red and the blue line are already at 10%, the lines still dropping, almost reaching the inflation line.
    So clearly it's over, the boom:

    Chart 1: The pace of housing price rises in Brazil’s two major cities has slowed over the past years

    [​IMG]

    I think you are in the "Denial" stage making your clients believe they are in the Mania-Stage:

    The Bubble Chart

    [​IMG]

    High default rates in Brazil risk imploding consumption and real estate speculation

    The numbers of the latest weeks are here.

    For you denying is surviving maybe.
     
  11. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    Can you pls explain what is an "Energy Field" ?
    Looks so psychedelic and halo-like.
    And what and where in the NE ?
    Don't hope you mean some oil blocks at sea like they were ALWAYS auctioned, and now, finaly after years and years and years waiting and ruining the country an other auction.
    Or is the pre-salt hype south of the NE being transfered to the housing bussines in the NE again ?

    Also don't hope you main some windturbine concessions or old dried up oil wells.
    Or bankrupted elec.energy state companies.
     
  12. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    What finally,
    More than 10-15 years ago lots of offshore blocks were already auctioned in the NE.
    Several times.
    Think Odfjell is doing some deepwater drilling in Sergipe, some in the south of Bahia and north of CE.
    But no so many results so far.
    Think you make people happy again with something that won't be there the next 20-40 years.
    And the biggest problem now is the 30% Petrobras as operator of the blocks.
    There is NO money for that.
    Activities are south of Bahia-ES-Campos and Santos basins.
    The auctions also.
     
  13. Algarve

    Algarve New Member

    hard statistics

    As a valuator in Portugal, I was recently asked to evaluate three markets in Brasil: Fortaleza, Natal and Floripa. It was hard to get good information and most institutions did not cooperated. Because I was doing the job for a good bank client, I was able to get some data from some Brasilian banks and without disclosing much information, I came to the conclusion that Natal lost about 20 to 30% in value since 2006, Fortaleza lost between 15 and 20% and Floripa lost about 10 to 15% in the same period. These figures were calculated with very strong data I collected from some of the biggest brasilian banks and I am very confident on them. As you may not know, a valuator, since 2008 has to calculate the risk of the investment for the next five years and on that matter I must say the risk is between middle and high. For most cases, Fortaleza and Natal were considered high risk with below average profit expectation, while Floripa's risk is considered low and the profit expectaction is considered to be average when compared to cities like Rio and BH.
     
  14. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    I know you live just for a few years in Brazil, so I can't blame you lack of the portuguese language.
    But yesterday finaly the Brazilian Government/Central Bank stepped in the discussion.
    They created a new "index", the "IVG-R - Índice de Valores de Garantia de Imóveis Residenciais Financiados".
    A residential home pricing index.
    (So we don't depend on the FIPE-ZAP figures alone anymore)

    Yesterday they, the BR Central Bank, launced the first results of their research.
    Actualy (january 2013) the average price raise of housing in Brazil is ONLY 3 % A YEAR.

    The Central Bank denied there is a housing bubble, its just an "ajustment".
    Of course they denied.
    Have you ever seen a government warning that things are colapsing ?

    Discussions on TV stations and newspapers are all over the place.
    Now RE companies and their CEO's don't deny anymore that the "boom" has come to an end.

    "Depois da alta súbita verificada entre 2007 e 2010, a valorização anual dos preços dos imóveis residenciais no Brasil -que chegou a 20% ao ano- despencou para 3% no fim de 2012 e, segundo o diretor de fiscalização do BC (Banco Central), Anthero Meirelles."

    Or after rises of up to 20% a year in the 2007-2010 period, housing prices now have dropped* to 3% a year increase, according Mr Meirelles, Central Bank director.

    * "Dropped" is the wrong translation for the verb "despencar".
    The right one is COLLAPSING or a hard MORTAL landing.

    The news is still only available in articles in portuguese , forbidden to link to here on this forum.
    The next days (hours) sure you will find it in all foreign financial newspapers.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 4, 2013
  15. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    Wrong.
    In portuguese (also economics) we use 3 verbs:

    baixar = getting lower, not so fast
    cair = falling
    despencar = crashing/uncontrolles falling, no parachute !

    This is a better indicator than the FIPE-ZAP index.
    It's not the price the seller/owner (the dreamer) thinks his property is worth.
    It's the price evaluated by specialists.
    The "Love-It or Leave-It" prices.
    The real, feet on the ground, prices.
     
  16. Algarve

    Algarve New Member

    study

    Hi,

    From January till March.

    I was also surprised with the quantity of plots bought with bank money, something you just can't find in Portugal. All plots bought under the umbrella of the MCMV project were financed by banks and this is true for Fortaleza and Natal.

    Then you have to consider that many condos were sold and resold many times during the process of building. I found seven resorts where most condos were sold at the least two times from the offplan offer till they were totally built. No news for me on this. It was very commom practice in the Algarve. Some of them occur because of delays but everyone counts as a different mortgage. And delays are also very commom in Natal and Fortaleza.

    Then you can find something new in the business, at least for me, the reservation of a condo or a plot in a resort with bank money and this is happening a lot in places in and around Fortaleza. How can someone get money from a bank to be able to do this is a mistery to me, but I saw plenty of this on the data I received.

    In Floripa I was able to compared the data I received with data given by a portuguese builder I know and who is building there for the last six years. There you can see many people from Argentina buying and getting finance in Brasil rather than in Argentina.

    I do not know if the data I've got is comprehensive but it surely shows a lot of buying with bank money and therefore a lot of mortgages.

    Hope to enlight you a little bit.

    Best regards.

    Salvador

    In the end I found a lot more
     
  17. Maria2

    Maria2 Active Member

    Are you sure you want to tackle LR's knowledge of the Portuguese language?
    And what have you done to Norbert?

     
  18. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    Fortaleza and Natal are diferent.
    They depend to much on tourism.
    Although Fortaleza has some industry, the PECEM port complex and hopefully a steel factory and a refinery are coming there. But Natal (RN) has no significant source of income if not tourism. The so called "monocultura". Yes some oil/salt in Mossoró, some fruit export, but nothing significant.
    Their "conjuntura" is fragile.
    An eventual housing boom there was caused just because of (false) tourist growth expectations.

    For some reasons they never focused on big tourist projects like Bahia did with Sauipe and other places. (Or Porto das Galinhas in PE).
    They dreamed to much thinking that the world (or Brasilian) tourist industry was waiting for them. As if there are no better places to go.

    NE cities like Recife or Salvador don't depend so much on tourism. Specialy Salvador with a hugh industry, big refinery, 2nd largest petrochemical complex in SA, car makers, steel and lots more. And also the (international and domestic) tourists are diferent, not just for sun & beach "fun".
    An eventual RE boom there is/was caused by growing industry output.
    Same Florianopolis, BH and so on.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 5, 2013
  19. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    I mentioned it: "Some oil in the Mossoró area".
    But it's only responsible for about 2,5 - 3,0 % of Brazils oil production (55.000 bpd - just one medium size FPSO in the Campos-Basin takes care of that).
    These are very old land wells and that they are drying out.
    You forget to tell that also the oil production in RN is slowing down fast.
    Because of this (I know) hotels in Mossoró lost 50% clients the last 2 years.
    People are being dismissed. About 2.600 PetroBras people are working in the whole state.
    There are no new, proven, reserves (like elsewhere). not at land, not at sea.
    We already had 10 auctions the last 15 years. If the government sells blocks, that doesn't mean there is oil or gas.

    I think if someone starts a new coockie factory in RN, it will anounced worldwide on millions of developers websites.

    It's called "pisciculture".
    All the NE states have their shrimp "carciniculture" and fish farms.
    Ceara is doing good in that now (replaced RdN as NE leader).
    Fighting against imported Asian virusses.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 5, 2013
  20. LoneRanger

    LoneRanger Guest

    FACTS, as always !

    With the oil crash, Rio Grande do Norte will cool down.



    You can find in all newspapers.
    You can find in the PetroBras and ANP figures.
    People from the oilsector are being relocated from RdoN to Rio de Janeiro and Santos.
    3rd party workers are fired.

    Sorry for the PT links.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 8, 2013
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