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How long do you think the global economic downturn will last?

  1. 1 year

    15 vote(s)
    21.1%
  2. 2 years

    20 vote(s)
    28.2%
  3. 3 years

    14 vote(s)
    19.7%
  4. 4 years

    3 vote(s)
    4.2%
  5. 5 years

    4 vote(s)
    5.6%
  6. More than 5 years

    12 vote(s)
    16.9%
  7. not sure

    3 vote(s)
    4.2%

How long do you think the global economic downturn will last?

Discussion in 'Buying Overseas Property' started by Nicholas Wallwork, Feb 14, 2009.

  1. Nicholas Wallwork

    Nicholas Wallwork Editor-in-Chief Staff Member Premium Member

    As the worldwide economy continues to struggle, how long do you think the global economic downturn will last?

    Please post your ideas, comments and theories and we can discuss the many views and opinions out there.

    Have you voted in the above poll?
     
  2. Prop-erty

    Prop-erty New Member

    I could not believe only 5 people voted. Come on, give your opinion. It would be interesting to know what others think because our decisions in this market very much depend on what others think.
     
  3. mickthepropertyguru

    mickthepropertyguru New Member

    I think it may last for a few years. I think the vast majority of people bought properties overseas with their houses as collateral. Now many people don't have equity in their houses anymore and credit isn't and may never be as free flowing as it once was.
    The younger generation are up to their eye balls in debt and the last thing they will do is buy a holiday home/investment abroad.
    Firstly there will need to be demand for property, but it will take years to work through the oversupply in all markets.
    Cash is king and experienced investors will be able to purchase properties at huge discounts, 50% = 60%, these people will be the winners for sure .
     
  4. rowlandsbb

    rowlandsbb New Member

    The problem experienced investors have is finding the right products at a discounted price..the good products tend to be kept off the market until the upturn...subject to exceptions of course!
    But the dealer is pre eminent just now...taking the risk with the bad stock...in UK for example flats in Manchester,Leeds, Liverpool which were always overpriced for the mug punter in the boom days!!!
    All part of the market

    But overall the property market is not dealer/ investor lead...it is the life style buyers who are the most important.....first time buyer [ primary home, holiday home, retirement home] and that is confidence lead and the availability of finance
    Dealers and experienced investors , dare I say it, live off their back!...anticipating the trend and the product they want
    Yet again the world economy is in a mess and UK wise we seems to be in worse s..t that most but when there is a mess there is ' a profit to be made'
    My main interest besides UK is Spain
    Why?....I like it and it is an easy travel to get there.....and always will
    Many with good jobs [ and money] in the boom where thinking of more exotic places to buy but the feed back I have is that ' they now consider Spain the best place for their second home'
    Why?
    Easy access with the kids to the sun and low risk.....part of EU

    It is this type of buyer who will get the market moving again and also the retirement buyer/ part/ full time..........€ for € there is really no better value than Spain

    Next EU boom is 10/15 years by which time UK will probably be in the €[?] but a lot of good profit pickings for the good dealers

    For life style buyers just now may just be OK.......I have bought a winter home in Spain...so not speaking just as an agent but as a buyer!!!!.....a mature one at that"!!!!
     
  5. neustria

    neustria New Member

    It is an error to attempt to make predictions about the economic outlook when the world's economies are intimately tied to extremely serious political developments in the United States, Britain, France, and elsewhere. The political aspect of the current crisis, where the deciders have seized control of the media and are now going to great pains to seemingly make things even worse than they already are, means that this crisis is going to be felt for many years to come. And indeed, I believe that the political crisis is even more serious than the economic crisis.

    I am ever the pessimist, I know, but though I had anticipated a serious downturn for quite some time, the current situation is far worst than anything I had ever dared imagine.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2009
  6. rowlandsbb

    rowlandsbb New Member

    There has always been a political price to pay for economic problems and the degree is often relative to the extent of the downturns......most wars are fought for economic reasons!!

    The last time the UK went to the IMF for a bail out was under Labour in the 70's and history may be about to repeat itself!!

    Certainly in UK the political fall out is just around the corner!...USA has already had it's and perhaps parts of EU as well will get theirs ...some of those parties now in charge may not see power again for quite a long time...we shall see

    But it is often the case that until the political shake outs have taken place, the economies can not move ahead...so the sooner it happens the better and that applies for property economies

    However, for buyers able to finance there are some nice pickings about!...I deal with Spain between Alicante and Mojacar and I can show you lots
     
  7. LJHooker

    LJHooker New Member

    my prediction is about 2-3 years...actually it depends on US Goverment too since this economy crisis start from US.
     
  8. BartS

    BartS New Member

    2 years in my opinion but next 6 months would decide i"d say
     
  9. edsilpuno

    edsilpuno New Member

    I hope it will only last for a year. I guess the US government is making huge efforts to save its economy and so as the rest of the world.
     
  10. clarenash

    clarenash New Member

    I think it is hard to know when the property market will improve, I think we will see a gradual improvement over a long period of time rather than something you will notice over night I think we are currently hearing positive things about property sellings and prices rising which is good news but I would imagine we will get to a certain point where we will level out for a little bit and then it will need to be reassessed again.
     
  11. colombiacommercial

    colombiacommercial New Member

    I think it will take 1-2 years.Now the things are coming on track.More or less it will depends on the economic conditions in US.
     
  12. rowlandsbb

    rowlandsbb New Member

    Well it now seems that in some countries we are seeing the start of the recovery Uk seems to be the first in and heading for the last out
    In property terms the general view is that UK market has turned in good locations
    In Spain the good deals like CAM Bank repossessions at 30% discount & 80% LTV mtges, and other banks,are helping the market along and with these terms attracting the non resident buyers again

    Overal Spain is expected to be flat for 2010 and then a slow improvement in sales for 2011...next boom starting say 2015/18

    So for life style buyers and even investort / dealers there are some very good buys about, if you go to Spain to look
     
  13. Lysos

    Lysos New Member

    The bottom line is that no-one has a clue !. The so called experts & analysts didn't foresee the global recession, and they can no more predict a recovery either.

    As for UK - we don't actually produce anything anymore. The only sector that is profitable is the City; large areas of the country are dependent on taxpayer support i.e. more than 60% of jobs in those areas are public sector - largely unproductive & non essential. Whoever wins the next election will be taking the axe to these areas.
     
  14. Dan Yurdiga

    Dan Yurdiga New Member

    We will recover soon. Just as improving our field of specialization.
     
  15. Triduc

    Triduc New Member

    I think it will not last for another one year, hopefully
     
  16. rowlandsbb

    rowlandsbb New Member

    What a weekend we have just had!

    And as this is a property forum this is my take on Spain -recovery just started but a long way to go

    Euro under intense pressure and our electoral system under going possibly a ‘life style change’

    But at least we now seem to be entering a period of stability and the exchange rate with the € has improved

    Many think it will continue to do so in the coming months of 2010

    In Spain the banks are under pressure to sell their repossessions including CAM Bank, so ‘asking prices’ are just that!
    And more importantly, for their own sales, CAM Bank are very competitive on mortgages to non residents

    So both price and affordability have never been better making a holiday home in Spain a very good option

    It also means that during the tight economic years ahead [say 4 years so that there is a mini boom before the next election ] the cost of owning a holiday home can be kept low, provided buyers do not over stretch themselves and take care in finding the right home
    So the cost of your family holiday in the sun in Spain can be controlled and even subsidised by some holiday letting to family and friends

    Whilst the average holiday home owner does not make a fortune from letting, with a bit of effort many do very nicely and offset a good percentage of their owning costs, if not all

    On our web site we show just a small selection of CAM Bank homes for sale just to give you an idea of the various types available

    On a visit to your chosen area of Spain, we can show you an excellent range within your own criteria

    So circa 4 difficult years to come but during that time opportunities to find your home in the sun
     
  17. Taaha

    Taaha New Member

    Well, as far as middle east is concerned, it will not remain for too much long time and experts are saying that situation will start getting better till the end of this year provided war in Afghanistan may not continue for long.
     
  18. andyphillip

    andyphillip New Member

    I also agree all of them, I want to say all the other areas show large falls (Except Aberdeen with a small increase) but it depend on economic property solution.
     
  19. JamesRoberts

    JamesRoberts New Member

    With respect to the global economic downturn, I would think a broad positive increase is likely in the next 12 months or so (i.e. more countries in the black as opposed to in significant debt in the developed world).

    As far as the property market is concerned, given the lessons (hopefully) learned by lenders/borrowers/governments/developers etc, the actual turn around is likely to be a little more niche in my opinion. The boom days similar to 2001-2008 are unlikely to present themselves as widespread as before because of changes in regulation, both at industry level, and in the financial and governmental areas globally. In essence, property investment providers/companies will need to work a bit harder to ensure they are promoting solid products to clients.
     
  20. brainardridgeapps

    brainardridgeapps New Member

    Real Estate is having a big part on the business world, on real estate, selling is not as easy as eating peanuts, you need to have the guts, proper marketing.
     
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