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Dubai property market taking a nose dive?

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M

Mujteba

New Member
georgihh said:
Sensible post.

Tough time is coming.
Some projects are well overpriced particularly the recent from Emaar and I don’t know how they will manage the situation.
You can’t sell a villa which cost you one million for 5 million – five times!!!!!!
But the very bad news is that buyers are gone as you said people from Pakistan .
Not officially they were involved in 20% of the properties deals in Dubai.
Europe and Russia are also pulling out.
Who has left – Iran.
The locals and the Saudis they don’t buy freehold as they can buy in Jumeirah
Click to expand...
Thanks georgih for the insight. What are your thoughts for the future, will the new laws change anything do u think?

regds
 
G

georgihh

New Member
Mujteba said:
Thanks georgih for the insight. What are your thoughts for the future, will the new laws change anything do u think?

regds
Click to expand...
The picture is very clear

Dubai they don’t need more foreigners as they have enough.
The construction will slow down but the mass constriction will be replaced by special projects for the reach people and very qualified people will execute them.
In this way the problem is solved.
This financial crisis came as a bonus to Dubai as they will be able to get rid of all the cheap developers, contractors, investors and agents.
What is going to happen?
The new projects will be cancelled or postponed for some time.
The prices of the ready ones will come down a little bit and will jump up sometime next year.
The villas are going to be always in demand as they are not going to build many more.
The crisis will enlarge in the next months and will disappear some time next year and every thing will be back to normal except you are going to see less construction and more special projects.
Prices will go down until all those cheap projects are canceled and sometime next year the prices will go up even if not many people are buying.
I know how the government thinks – you don’t make money but you don’t go back home empty handed.
If you have the cash to stick to your villas you won’t lose but you need a year or two
 
I

iced

New Member
falls

agree generally with georgih but i do think that villas will fall 20% and offplan even further in the next few months. After that the market will be flat and maybe even increase moderately.

Things are definitley going to slow down. The thing is that on average prices have risen 50%+ this year so such falls are not a major deal unless of course you have bought recently.
 
G

georgihh

New Member
iced said:
agree generally with georgih but i do think that villas will fall 20% and offplan even further in the next few months. After that the market will be flat and maybe even increase moderately.

Things are definitley going to slow down. The thing is that on average prices have risen 50%+ this year so such falls are not a major deal unless of course you have bought recently.
Click to expand...
Iced

You are one of the sensible people in this forum
Now we need to build the cash and look for the bottom and then hit the market.
Dubai is up and down – always been like that.
Let’s see if the cash will come to Dubai.
The good news is that we don’t buy piece of paper anymore now we can buy properties we can select them and we can annoy the agents the way they irritated us for the last 5 years
 
S

SeaHorse

New Member
georgihh said:
The picture is very clear

Dubai they don’t need more foreigners as they have enough.
The construction will slow down but the mass constriction will be replaced by special projects for the reach people and very qualified people will execute them.
In this way the problem is solved.
This financial crisis came as a bonus to Dubai as they will be able to get rid of all the cheap developers, contractors, investors and agents.
What is going to happen?
The new projects will be cancelled or postponed for some time.
The prices of the ready ones will come down a little bit and will jump up sometime next year.
The villas are going to be always in demand as they are not going to build many more.
The crisis will enlarge in the next months and will disappear some time next year and every thing will be back to normal except you are going to see less construction and more special projects.
Prices will go down until all those cheap projects are canceled and sometime next year the prices will go up even if not many people are buying.
I know how the government thinks – you don’t make money but you don’t go back home empty handed.
If you have the cash to stick to your villas you won’t lose but you need a year or two
Click to expand...
sounds right .... plz chk out the following link:

News | Three Million Brits To Buy Abroad
 
I

Investoman_uae

New Member
SeaHorse said:
There we go....here is the correct info:

Nakheel statement: Work continues on Palm Deira

I would like to know how are the other real estate UAE markets (like RAK and Ajman) doing in the current economical downturn?
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They are slow as the other Emirates are... but am not worried about them because they are significantly cheaper than Dubai/Abu Dhabi... so in the long run, people will be considerin investing there because well, they can afford it... whereas in Dubai they cant afford it anymore.

The problem is, in Ajman for example, finance is not available yet... but i think this is the best time for the Ajman Government to allow banks to provide finance there to open up the market.

Ajman is literally half the price of Dubai.

Inv.
 
S

Sportsman

New Member
I have to agree, what about the water and electricity access? It's an unknown...

I would stick with the main hubs and play it safe.

The market will hopefully stabilize in the next few months after the "flippers" give back their properties they could never afford. I would hope it would remain stable in the short term and completed properties will be in focus. Rents are still on very good returns.

It might not be up to the local markets but the banks and liquidity flow coming into the region...

Still optimistic
 
R

Roshan

New Member
georgihh said:
The picture is very clear

Dubai they don’t need more foreigners as they have enough.
The construction will slow down but the mass constriction will be replaced by special projects for the reach people and very qualified people will execute them.
In this way the problem is solved.
This financial crisis came as a bonus to Dubai as they will be able to get rid of all the cheap developers, contractors, investors and agents.
What is going to happen?
The new projects will be cancelled or postponed for some time.
The prices of the ready ones will come down a little bit and will jump up sometime next year.
The villas are going to be always in demand as they are not going to build many more.
The crisis will enlarge in the next months and will disappear some time next year and every thing will be back to normal except you are going to see less construction and more special projects.
Prices will go down until all those cheap projects are canceled and sometime next year the prices will go up even if not many people are buying.
I know how the government thinks – you don’t make money but you don’t go back home empty handed.
If you have the cash to stick to your villas you won’t lose but you need a year or two
Click to expand...
Expect developers to come up with villa projects. They know where the cream lies. You will now see more developers coming with villa projects.

Regards

Roshan
 
D

desres

New Member
The agent DOES know what he is talking about regarding the market taking a nose dive & this is nothing to do with U.K. either ITS A FACT ..... believe it or go around with your head in the clouds for a bit longer

In fact the market dramatically stopped trading around the Abu Dhabi City Scape time { May} an awful lot of investors bought with the intention to re-sell there & it didnt happen for most of them
Also there wasent the great Pre Launch / Launches people had come to expect

I am in Real Estate .. Investor / agent & based in Dubai ... used to handle Dubai & Abu Dhabi properties & would never even dream it could go from such a strong market to zilch in such a short time !!

The situation is ... we dont even get enquiries anymore never mind buyers
I handle lots of owners property portfolios & some very good ones too... but absolutely no joy

Dubai & Abu Dhabi became the perfect flippers market .. quick entry ... quick exit turn a profit .... this in turn raised the re sale price dramatically ...
then the Developers O.P. went from 1400 / 1500 Dhs sq ft rising to 2300 / 2500 Dhs sq ft within 6 mths .. almost doubled

Then they stopped the Residents Visa
Then the payment plans got less attractive
This with a few other incidents developed a lack of confidence in the market
and all this happened BEFORE the credit crunch !!!

Now we are at the point where so many investors are stuck with properties they cannot make the next payments on ... this is why they are selling at no premium Distress etc because they are trying to recoup some of there initial outlay .. NEVER MIND A PREMIUM !!!
The market has a glut of properties, thats without all the completion props in 2009etc

It was a clear case of too much too fast & thats the situation
 
M

Mujteba

New Member
Wow that is a very honest insight into the market. i think people have hinted to it, but you have been brave by actually admitting to it.

Anyway, hopefully the govt will "bail out" the developers and the buyers from this, Dubai's own unique form of the credit crunch!

I just hope they can change payment plans or prices of developments.

Wait and see i suppose.

regds
 
G

georgihh

New Member
Mujteba said:
Wow that is a very honest insight into the market. i think people have hinted to it, but you have been brave by actually admitting to it.

Anyway, hopefully the govt will "bail out" the developers and the buyers from this, Dubai's own unique form of the credit crunch!

I just hope they can change payment plans or prices of developments.

Wait and see i suppose.

regds
Click to expand...
Yes the credit crunch just accelerated the Dubai property prices adjustment
I heard on a radio today that you can buy 2 bedroom villa (townhouse like spring 4e) for 110000$ in Florida – eight time less than Dubai – amazing
And I don’t think the people in America earn less than the people in Dubai.
If the construction slows down less workers will be needed and the salaries will drop down. Less people will be willing to buy or pay high rents.
The situation is very difficult and I don’t see where the buyers will come from to stabilize the market.
The tourism industry is also down as the prices are very high.
I hope the current situation will not last more than a year as after that will be disaster
 
P

PropGuy

New Member
Dubai market is doomed if $ didn't fall, if you study the charts, some how dubai market appears to be inversely related with the price of $. $ is rising it is good for renting or people who have secured mortgage but bad for off plan properties. But one little problem, there is no fundamental reason behind the rise of $, so it can come crashing down as fast it went up. But when will that happen is difficult to guess.
 
M

Mujteba

New Member
I dont think you can say you can there is fundamental reason for the rise of the dollar, simply put, the Fed seems to be more keen than most other state banks to help their financial sector than other countries.

I am in the UK and I am still not sure whether I should have more than £50K in a bank account and convert my dhirhams into £.

Anyway i guess we are on a downward trend which most of us have probably never seen before. I just hope we dont see a crash in dubai where prices go lower than launch prices with negative premiums then we will be in serious trouble. So fingers crossed - may next week bring a little more stability in the FTSE and NASDAQ (may be wishful thinking!)
 
P

PropGuy

New Member
Mujteba said:
I dont think you can say you can there is fundamental reason for the rise of the dollar, simply put, the Fed seems to be more keen than most other state banks to help their financial sector than other countries.

I am in the UK and I am still not sure whether I should have more than £50K in a bank account and convert my dhirhams into £.

Anyway i guess we are on a downward trend which most of us have probably never seen before. I just hope we dont see a crash in dubai where prices go lower than launch prices with negative premiums then we will be in serious trouble. So fingers crossed - may next week bring a little more stability in the FTSE and NASDAQ (may be wishful thinking!)
Click to expand...
Rising $ will hurt US industry more, currently GBP has falling to 1.59 from 1.75 in last two weeks, and euro is currently 1.26 from 1.59 peek. US exports to other countries have become 26% more expensive just in last two months. So a recession in US seems inevitable if $ stays high up. But lets hope it doesn't happen, Fed announced to cut interest rate, but that didn't help so far. I hope market shows some improvement in coming days.

As for your bank account, you should get 9 to 10% more £s from dhs. Try exchange rate calculator. On 13-mar-08 GBP was 2.039 against US$ that means if you had £10k that is US$ 20,390 and in dhs it is aprox dhs74,831.3. Since dhs is pegged to $ dhs rate to $ is same (US$ 20,390),so now one would get £12,823.89 from £10K in march. So many people might be thinking of cashing out now. Even if they sell cost to cost in dhs, they have more profit in £.

But there is another issue, since banking sector going down in US and UK, deposit after certain amount are not guaranteed so 26% higher value may not worth to transfer.

ps: exchange deduct fee so actual amount would be little less than £12.8K.
 
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