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Correction or Crash?

Discussion in 'Dubai property' started by dubister, Nov 9, 2008.

  1. dubister

    dubister New Member

    Property prices on Palm Jebel Ali fall by up to 40%

    by Claire Ferris-Lay and Dylan BowmanThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it on Thursday, 06 November 2008

    PALM PRICES: Investors in off-plan properties on the Palm Jebel Ali have been forced to reduce prices to find a buyer, agents say.
    PALM PRICES: Investors in off-plan properties on the Palm Jebel Ali have been forced to reduce prices to find a buyer, agents say.

    House prices on the Palm Jebel Ali, second largest of Nakheel’s palm-shaped islands, have fallen by as much as 40 percent in the last two months as the global financial crisis sees foreign investors move to liquidate assets in Dubai, according to three Dubai-based real estate agents.

    “I never expected [prices on the Palm Jebel Ali] would have come back so quickly and by so much,” said Jeroen Van Der Geer, partner at AA Properties in Dubai. “We are back to a level of one and a half to two years ago.”

    The global financial crisis has hit demand from foreign investors, which make up a large percentage of property buyers in Dubai, while tightening liquidity has made home financing more difficult, agents said.
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    Local mortgage providers have slashed home financing from 90 percent to as little as 60 percent in recent weeks.

    The price of five and six bedroom signature villas, the most expensive properties on Palm Jebel Ali, have dropped from around 16 million dirhams ($4.35 million) to 9 million dirhams since the beginning of September, according to figures from AA Properties.

    But that still represents a premium of between 70 percent to 80 percent on the original launch prices.

    A four-bed garden home has fallen from around 7.4 million dirhams to 4.1 million dirhams, according to the figures, with the premium dropping from around 160 percent to 45 percent.

    The figures show a three-bed water home, the cheaper of the Palm Jebel Ali properties, is now selling for around 3.8 million dirhams, when at the beginning of September it was selling for 6.2 million dirhams, with the premium falling from about 210 percent to 90 percent.

    Jodie Smith, managing director of Elysian Real Estate, said garden homes were currently selling at around 4.5 million dirhams, compared to 8.6 million at the beginning of September, while water homes had come down to around 4 million dirhams from 6.5 million dirhams.

    David Rowland, sales consultant at Dubai’s Smith & Ken Real Estate, said he had seen premiums on signature villas drop from 200-210 percent in July/August to 75-80 percent currently.

    Rowland said he had also seen garden homes selling at a 35-40 percent premium, compared to 130-160 percent in July/August.

    He described the drop as “quite alarming”.

    Rowland said sales had not completely dried up on the Palm Jebel Ali, but investors were having to accept premiums of around 35-40 percent to make a sale.

    Rowland said premiums could go as low as 20 percent before property prices rebound.

    “I think we will see a rebound. Palm Jebel Ali may go down to as low as 20 percent [premium]. When it does we will see people start to come back to the market, maybe in December,” he said.

    Van Der Geer said he expected demand for properties on Palm Jebel Ali return before Christmas as global financial markets stabilise and investor confidence begins to return.

    “It is a good opportunity for investors now and I believe the [long-term] picture is good. Prices will go back up,” he said.

    Smith said she had already seen sales pick up this week, with investors taking advantage of bargain prices to snap up properties that just a few months ago were out of their price range.

    Nakheel said in a statement that it welcomed “all proposals and discussions by all industry-related partners aimed at maintaining a healthy market movement under the current circumstances”.

    “Nakheel realises that it does not work in isolation and has a great number of partners and third parties whose interests are intertwined with its own. This approach is a very responsible approach in line with current global economic conditions,” the developer said.

    Property prices on Palm Jebel Ali fall by up to 40% - Real Estate - ArabianBusiness.com
     
  2. sasherwani2

    sasherwani2 New Member

    For those expecting the prices to go back up, I have just one question.. why do you think the prices shall go up? There is absolutely no liquidity in the market and the recession hasn't even started yet. What makes you guys believe that Dubai is immune to any extrenal negative forces. I admit that Dubai maybe less affected by the US sneeze, but Dubai in the end is an investor's market. Investors that belong to all parts of the globe. With the commodity prices crashing down like crazy, unemployment rate increasing the world over, stock markets plunging daily liquidity will become more and more scarce. There are "NO" buyers in the market currently except for very few end-users (I dont consider end-users investors anyway). Anyhow, wake up guys we aren't even close to the rock-bottom, infact the journey down has just begun!
     
  3. georgihh

    georgihh New Member

    Looks like you are one of the knowledgeable persons in this forum
    When do you expect the market to bottom and how much more?
    I am particularly interested to know if the prices of the complete units in IC and DSO will go down and by how much?
     
  4. sasherwani2

    sasherwani2 New Member

    I dont want to hurt the investor sentiments by my so-called "negative" views about the market but the fact is, there will be a correction and a very intense one. The correction will show the mirror to all the projects. The good quality projects from good developers located in good locations wont face a correction of more than 25-30% unless they are highly overpriced. However for projects like IC, DGardens, Badrah, Warsan, Mushrif Heights etc massive corrections are on the card either due to their location or due to their construction quality. I strongly feel Warsan and Mushrif Heights will be cancelled. Badrah and IC prices will slash down by 50% and the DGardens by 40%. Badrah, IC and DG was never meant to be this expensive. Corruption, intentional launch and delivery delays and speculators have made it expensive. Badrah still calls itself a "mid-income household project" but is selling studios at AED 1M+ at the launch. I dont know much about DSO except for it was supposed to be the new "Internet City" of dubai but not many noteworthy companies have shown interest in relocating there.
    I expect the crash to happen in Q2 of 2009 probably in April or May. This is when the Q1 results for the big property companies are released and a huge panic will immerse when debts will incline and the profits shall decline. Already strict measures are being taken by these developers by firing a big part of their work forces.
     
  5. dubister

    dubister New Member

    I agree, Q1 of the 2009 could be a disaster. Right now we seeing market surviving because market indicators show positive numbers which are skewed due to 2008 Q3/Q4 earinings.

    It think the govt has to jump in to save the honest, non-greedy, investors and expat end-users alike who put in everything they had and entrusted... If they dont', there will be bad debt across the board. I hope the govt understands the repercussions of it..... and have a plan in place to avoid that.

    Lastly, with Obama in office and now that everyone in the world knows and it is prooven, that USA controls the world market; we should be even more wary. Because we will see a huge pull back in the coming year from the U.S govt on foreign outsourcing etc; that is no. 1 agenda on his administrations priorities. Thus, when the USA pulls back to serve its own people, investments change route to the u.s again, and obviously the emerging countries like UAE get hurt.... this is just my theory.
     
  6. georgihh

    georgihh New Member

    The above figures could happen but only if the rents go down by 50%.
    The demand for ready property is yet to be overcome.
    With the new law and demolishing old areas I don’t see it happening for at least two years.
    DG and IC are like a bank you put your money and get 15% interest per year.
    Pakistanis are buying like crazy in these developments and they don’t like losing money.
    Tough Badrah is not built yet and prices might fall very quickly.
    At the time when cash is a king nobody buys for the future they want results now..
    Emaar has lost already huge amount of money and Warsan and Mishrif are the last strongholds and I don’t think they will surrender very easy.
    Actually the picture is clear – if somebody doesn’t pump cash in the Dubai real estate very soon, you can say goodbye Dubai, but if money comes will be back to normal not immediately but in a year time
     
  7. georgihh

    georgihh New Member

    Its only correction

    Its only correction
    Crash will be when you see the prices from 2006.
    The correction is about to end and we will see minor price increase or decrease during the next 12 months.
    A lot of people cashed up already and they can’t keep the cash forever they will bring it slowly back during the next year.
     
  8. sasherwani2

    sasherwani2 New Member

    Its better to have cash than to have a bad investment. Noone will invest till atleast a year after they feel that the market has reached its bottom. Currently the market has just begun the fall. Emaar is deferring payments for clients because it KNOWS no sensible client is willing to pay a single penny more on their overpriced properties. The picture will get clearer in the coming days.
     
  9. mpat

    mpat New Member


    Hi sasherwani

    Do you think it is possible to talk to the developer and put the payment for which we gave pdc ( post dated cheques ) on hold due to the DELAYS ??? I already got 2 extensions on my payment plan due to the delays. now its completing in Dec 9 , but the project will be handed over in first or second quarter of 10.

    Thanks
     
  10. sasherwani2

    sasherwani2 New Member

    Depends on your developer. Good developers are listening to all reasonable requests of their clients to avoid bad publicity and to avoid seevre disruption in cashflows. Talk to your developer. I'm sure they will agree to your terms.
     
  11. jomonanu1

    jomonanu1 New Member

    I do not know why people wanted to do Distress Sales. Dubai, it will take time to mature, the correction, I mean the real correction will take only after many years. The government is giving protection to the Dubai Investors. The projects are announcing in Dubai is still at the beginning. The government has a plan behind this, they will protect the investments.

    Look at the new Investments, Meraas for the example. It will cover and spread over Satwa and Jumeirah 1&2. With in a couple of years, the tenants have to move out of this area and look out for new areas to live. They can move to JLT, Marina or to the Dubailand only, so there is not going to be any more vacant flats or villas.

    The same way, there are projects, the government is going to launch , revamping the entire Ras Al Khor and Rashidiya by next year, again the tenants have to move out to new destinations. Followed by Al Qouze, Deira and Al Ghusais and at the end, it is Bur Dubai and Jumeirah, Umm Suquiem area. All these projects will be finishing by 2025.
    Think, once Deira and Bur Dubai is going for a shift, where all this public will move in to.By the time, all Dubailand will be congested and the rental Income will be more.

    Other than this, please look in to the projects announced already. The new Al Maktoum International Airport at Jabal Ali needs 135000 employees, once it is operational. This airport will open in the 4th quarter of 2009. Look at the number of hotels are coming up, according to Movenpick, they alone need around 12000 new staffs by the end of 2009. The Metro line will be operational from 2009 and the construction will start for the Blue Line and Purple line from 2010. Once Business Bay is complete more global giants are moving to Dubai.

    Right now, Dubai is the only safe heaven for the Investors. People they lost jobs in US, UK and Europe, they have move towards Middle East. 90% of those people are eyeing Dubai. With in months they will move to Dubai and they started buying properties, the prices will again go up.

    After all, as RERA and govt departments say, Dubai is not a market for speculators. This should be ended. Right now, the Investors are looking for resale from day one of the properties, In future; they can only resell it only after one year or after the completion of the project.

    Dear investors, please note, Dubai is not ruled by Democracy but Monarchy. In democracy, there are ruling party and opposition and they can adopt any type of policies. That can lead destruct ions in the market. Dubai is ruled by Visionary, Business Oriented Leaders. They also have Business Interests. So they never let you down.

    Look at the Rent, it is just increasing only, I never saw it is decreasing. Again it will go up all these coming years. The present City cannot afford the flow of people right now. And Dubai is growing and it will grow only.
     
  12. Wannaberich

    Wannaberich New Member

    This is a bad time for Dubai,theres no doubt.How bad we dont really know at the moment.
    Better Homes reported off-plan prices down 5-15% whilst the sales of completed properties have actually gone up.
    It looks like there will be alot less launches which is good.Too many as it was.
    Personally I think things will be bad for the next 6 months.More sellers than buyers and some reducing their prices just to get a sale.Those with completed or near completed properties will do better.
    Rents however continue to go up and it looks like that will continue.
    Long term Dubai is a good bet.In 5 years there will be so much more completed residential and tourist projects which will in turn help property prices greatly.
     
  13. dubister

    dubister New Member

    Correction only ! Let's hope so...

    - Palm Jebel Ali prices drop 40%
    - Emaar, Aldar, Sorouh and stock prices are PRE-IPO levels
    - LYODS, HSBC, AMLAK either stop giving mortgages or drastically reduce thier LTV to 50% (almost no loan)
    - There are days in dubai, where not a single property is traded...
    - Damac, Omniyat and Sorouh laying off people
    - Even big money investors are getting by unscathed.. because losses are suicidal...


    Let's just hope this is just a correction as you say... cuz it looks more like precedance to some bad times coming...
     
  14. sasherwani2

    sasherwani2 New Member

    Like I said before, just wait and watch. This isnt even the beginning of the freefall.
     
  15. Superlat

    Superlat New Member

    An Objective opinion

    I have no skin in the game of Dubai real estate, so I'll give my opinion. In the West, people are scared of what's happening on a daily basis. I saw this real estate disaster coming, so I didnt get hit by it, except in a couple of stocks, and I'm one of the few who could invest if he wanted to. Major corporations in the USA are failing. The govt keps throwing money at banks but they will run out at some point. China cannot keep the entire USA afloat forever, even if they want to. There are thousands, possibly millions of deals to be had in CA, Florida and Spain that are just starting to get to sweet prices, so why would westerners want to live in Dubai when we can stare at nearly naked women in southern Europe or Mexico?

    The problem is that this real estate bubble spread outwards. NYC and LA and London and Paris and Rome were too expensive, so people looked in the third world - Panama, Dubai, wherever else. Dubai is technically stable, but the price of oil is cratering into the floor now. The speculators who drove it up have totally lost control. Of course, eventually oil will go back up, but noone knows when the global economy will recover because it hasn't really stopped GOING DOWN YET. So join the freefall. Yes, I suppose a monarchy has more control, as long as all those people thrown out of work dont get restless.

    Personally I never understood the appeal of those islands. Seems totally insane and vulnerable to tsunamis. Not all of us in the West want to spend our days shopping on luxury goods which are also going out of business.
    Men want to get drunk and look at naked women on vacation. People arent going to Las Vegas for vacation, an inexpensive destination, so why are they going to go live in Dubai?

    If you say its a destination for the rich, anyone who still has money that's rich is going to have a million deals staring them in the face here in the USA, or the UK, or France.
    Time to scoop up some deals in the south of France.....not Dubai. I have to admit that
    the whole thing is very shocking. The way psychology turns is shocking, and this time it has turned GLOBALLY. If I had property there, I would get out yesterday.
     
  16. Wannaberich

    Wannaberich New Member

    If you have no interest in Dubai then fine.
    Therefore get off the Dubai forum and go take your dribble to another forum where people may give a s..t
     
  17. Roshan

    Roshan New Member

    What we are now facing is the evacuation of the speculators. Panic has spread and investors feel they will lose. This ripple or domino effect will spread and speculators will start panicking.

    Dubai in no way is insulated from recession as some put it. Let's face it, Dubai is building too much and figures like 2 billion expected are hard to believe and will never happen. With oil falling, don't expect wonders. India & China with strong fundamentals are in recession. Dubai is an emerging market and yet to make an impression. One could call Dubai a trading hub :confused:

    A lot of friends ask me whether I am affected and my answer is no. My strategy always was long term. I was lucky to have entered low. What I am trying to say is that real estate pays in the long run and still remains a gamble in the short term.

    Most of the developers with absolutely no leverage will exit the market or delay to kingdom come. The big developers will survive.

    Eventually prices will correct. Real estate is an investment which has it's ups and downs but always pays in the long run. But what I see happening would be prices tapering down to realistic values. As long as you have bought sensibly, there should not be any problems. Wade through the recession and come out a winner.

    Regards

    Roshan
     
  18. georgihh

    georgihh New Member

    Properties always go up during the years.
    The question is by how much and when you enter the market.
    Looks like the prices are stabilizing around 1000 DHS per sqft for ok and ready development in Dubai.
    The off plan should go down to 800DHS
    I am monitoring IC, DSO, DG and few more.
    When those prices will go up depends on the economy and the future supply.
    The sooner the cash comes back to Dubai the better
     
  19. mohammedno11

    mohammedno11 New Member

    Some Comments to this Dreamer in this forum:

    SOme informations are already published some are rumors, which I heard from reliable sources in the Dubai government.

    1. Dubai is bancrupt everybody knows this, dont close you eyes just look at the numbers.

    2. Dubai has nearly now oil revenue. The revenue is based on Real Estate, Tourism and JAFZA.

    3. AS everywhere in the world when we have a recession, luxury goods and holidays are the first thing were people start to safe money. As I read in the newspapers several hotel expect a far lower occupency next year.

    4. Major projects will be postponed or gernerally cancelled. Eg. The Universe from Nakheel, Palm Deira, Arabian Canal, Jumeirah Gardens and some projects in Dubailand.

    5. One post really made me laugh !!!! The gentleman said if they demolish Satwa the people will move to JLT, Marina and so on. No some facts. Do you know which kind of people lif in Satwa ? Our office boy is living there as many other low paid employees. He is paying 400AED for a bed with a salary of 2200 AED.

    I will propose him tomorrow to move to a nice one bedroom in Dubai Marina !

    6. Jebel Ali Airport: Government is discussing 3 options: 1. Put the construction on hold 2. Cancel the project 3. Sell the airport to Abu Dhabi. None of these 130.000 jobs is something anybody should calculate with.

    7. Abu Dhabi bails out Dubai (some deals have already been done behind the secenes). Abu Dhabi will not provide the money for free. There will be huge takeovers in the next month. One rumor, but not 100% confirmed. ALDAR will take over Nakheel.

    Prices will fall back to the level 3 years ago ! The first offers are already in the market.

    And now the final blow:

    The government knows that thousands of investors (not only speculators) will loose their money. And they also know that one day when everything goes up again (uo to 5 years period) new people will come which didnt burned their hands in Dubai. And even these investors which burned their hands will come again inthe hope to get back what they lost before !

    No one will help the market, no one is sitting at round table to make plans how to save all these investors. They are only looking to safe themselfes.

    So far back to reality !
     
  20. georgihh

    georgihh New Member

    I agree pretty much with your comments and this is the reality
    But there is one problem.
    If Dubai disappoints the investors and they lose the leadership in the region I am afraid they will never recover as Qatar and Oman are getting very close and they will take the business away.
    Ok you comments are sensible but please give us some figures for the prices for next year
     
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