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Brazilian Economy - Boom or Burst ?

Discussion in 'Brazil Property' started by cariocadagema, Jan 22, 2013.

  1. Most of the links to articles placed here are of interrest of the sellers, not of the buyers.
    Often, as it seems, written by them selves.
    The Brazilian economy is n't that good.
    For some period already, Brazilian big national newspapers describe what is realy going on here, it's getting worse every day.
    The last months also international magazines and newspapers finally started to detect the real situation.
    I think its important for foreign investors to now the real facts.
    Here some links one should read carefully.
    (Hope this thread will not disapear !!!!)

    For Brazil, the sweet dream is over

    Brazil’s economy - Stalled

    Will Brazil remain the country of the future?

    Forbes - Sorry Brazil, Investors Prefer Mexico

    Has Brazil lost its grace? The media noise and its nonsense

    UK economy overtakes Brazil…sorry

    Brazilian Bubble

    A breakdown of trust

    Brazil’s GDP: slower and ever slower

    Brazil GDP: how slow? nobody knows

    Roussolph the red-nosed reindeer
     
  2. dhoskings

    dhoskings New Member

    These are most likely all written by the same person or else one journalist is copying the other.

    So why does the oecd says there will be growth over the next 5 years and these journalists don't.

    maybe becuase the oecd gets paid to put out a report regardless of how boring it is but the journalists don't get paid unless they put out an exciting story. :D
     
  3. So now you bought your property in the North East of Brazil.
    And the prices will go up because:

    A hugh new airport is being constructed, the 2nd largest in …… (if so, strange, nobody in Brazil has ever heard of it). That will increase tourism.
    But wait, have you ever heard somebody say; "They have a big new airport there, let’s go there with vacation !”
    No, everything will stay the same as before. The beaches, the prices (to high), violence (increasing).
    And was the old airport to small ? No it wasn't.
    This is Brazil, throwing money away.
    Somebody know about the really hugh airport they were building in Vitória, capital of the state Espirito Santo and one of the centers for the offshore oil ? They started building, half was done, and then they stopped it in 2007 or so. It’s still there, half done.
    Nobody can force a tourist to go somewhere. More international flights will come ?
    No, ofcourse not.

    And yes there will be a football World Cup and (distance) Olympics..
    So what. ?
    4 games in 10 days, and then it’s also back to normal or worse. After that nobody ever will remember the name of the place.
    Like they say in Brazil: If all of this is so positive, why Greece is in the situation it’s in ?
    Most economics in Brazil agree, after the worldcup prices will drop (if not earlier because of the Brazilian economics and bubble). Depending on the spot, some even mention “up to 50%”.
    Then you answer: “But our real estate agent said…”.
    What else could you expect ?




    Brazil is a beautiful country to live in, I recomend it, but keep your eyes wide open.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 24, 2013
  4. dhoskings

    dhoskings New Member

    Brazil certainly is beuatiful but it must have affected your brain!

    Are you really comparing Brazil and Greece becuase of the Olympics? do you even know what happened in Greece?

    I hope to God that no-one leaves you in charge of anything critical at your oil job (or maybe it is an imaginary job) ....:D
     
  5. I would really appreciate if someone explains why only one single event, 4 football games in 10 days, should boost-up property prices, especially after those 10 days in 2014.
     
  6. mitico67

    mitico67 New Member

    The reason why the world cup will increase properties prices is due to investments in infrastructures. Let's say a new road is built that will cut transit time by half from a condo to the airport, the road will stand even after the closing of the event. By the other end if all the money are put into a new airport that will be used mainly to trasport goods or into a new stadium or other nonsense plus corruption you have a point.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2013
  7. Property prices should experience a severe devaluation after the 2014 World Cup, said FGV’s economics professor Samy Dana.

    Mr. Dana estimates that prices of many properties in the 12 host cities can plummet by up to 50% after the event, especially in the city of São Paulo. “I am certain that housing prices within the central regions of Sao Paulo will fall substantially,” he points out. ="DarkRed"

    He is confident in stating that real estate is not a good investment at this time. “Whoever is buying to sell, will lose money after the World Cup,” he believes.


    The article in English:

    “Brazil’s housing prices to meltdown after 2014 World Cup,” says FGV professor

    FGV = THE leading institute/school for Economics in Brazil.

    Fundação Getúlio Vargas (in English)
    .
     
  8. Mitico67,
    Thanks for your feedback.
    I suppose you live in Brazil. Honestly, do you see them doing anything to improve the infrastructure because of the worldcup ?
    Just building arenas and some thing around them. Thats it.
    Maybe re-paving with asphalt some roads from the airports to the host cities just before the world cup. "Perfumarias" as we call it.
    But roads to and in small places outside these host cities, I don't believe it.
    Who will pay that, these small cities (all financialy busted), the state governments, or Federal Government ? All 3 are financialy busted.
    So all of this is "Para Inglês ver" or "Conversa pra boi dormir" as we call it.
    Last week all newspapers discovered that most host cities will suffer black-outs during the worldcup, lack of elec. capacity.

    This story of a hugh airport in Natal, for freight, a hub airport.
    Please give me a break.
    Natal receives maybe not even 0,5 % of all airfreight in Brazil, and out going ... I think maybe 0,1 %, What's there, what they produce, nothing
    You really think that 99,9% off the airfreight in the future will go from or to Natal and then by truck or smaller planes to/from São Paulo, Minas, Bahia, Rio, Rio Grande do Sul, Sta Catarina, Parana and so on, thousands of miles further ?

    That will be another Trans Amazonica. :D
     
  9. Robh and friends,
    May I ask you what is wrong with articles written by FT, The Economist or many newspapers and magazines about Brazil ?
    Sometimes written by economists ?

    At least the REAL INVESTOR can make his OWN conclusions, accepting or rejecting, or in the middle.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 25, 2013
  10. One of the “sellers” and forum members has put this on his website:

    As I said before, no Brazilian has ever heard of this.
    Tell him and you tell him the joke of the year.
    This is really hilarious.
    “the largest passenger and cargo airport in Latin America, and eighth biggest in the world”

    Facts:
    According figures given by the Brazilian government agency Infraero – 2012 (jan-dec):
    Natal airport:

    Passengers,
    Natal totally 2.660.864 passengers - Brazil totally 191.617.646 passengers.
    19 Brazilian airports received more passengers than Natal (Natal = No 20 on the list).
    Of these 19 “bigger” airports, 11 received more than 5.000.000 passengers, the future “limit” for the new MEGA (??) airport.

    Air Freight,
    Natal = 7.600 tons – Brazil 1.404.212 tons
    12 Brazilian airports received more air freight than Natal (Natal = No 13 on the list).

    Conclusion:
    Natal = receive ONLY 1,3 % of all Brazilian passengers. (YES - one-point-three).
    Natal = receive ONLY 0,5 % of all Brazilian freight. (YES - zero-point-five).


    The little local airport Santos Dumont in the center of Rio (only domestic flights) already receives 9 million passengers / year, idem local domestic flight airport Congonhas in the center of Sao Paulo - 16,7 million a year.

    And Natal on the world “biggest-most important-airport” list ?
    Maybe no 1567 now. Maybe No 1564 in the future.

    Also what is a passenger ?
    Is the number of passenger the number of visitors ?
    No, they count twice for passengers, arriving and leaving.
    They also count transit passengers (twice).
    And every passenger is not a visitor, lots are locals from Natal, leaving and coming back home.
    And is a visitor a tourist ?
    So how many tourists are really visiting Natal ?
    Numbers of passengers now are only increasing only 2-3 % /year, that won’t change.
    Number of foreign passengers is decreasing.

    Historical figures can be seen on the Infraero government site / estatisticas.

    These things, this kind of information is given to investors.
    Nowhere you can find any news or information about this new Mega airport in Brazil, in Portuguese. Only on expat agent and foreign developers sites.
    So if one believes in this (joke), I’m sorry to mention the facts.

    I never could be a real estate agent, my ethics (yes character Mr. Dhoskings) are to different.
    Let’s be honest folks.

    And Boom or Bust ?
    Like it or not, Brazil is not growing anymore, the economy has stopped.
    Brazilians are buried in debt.
    Domestic flight prices have gone up 20- 40 % last year.
    Will domestic tourism grow ?
    Likely NOT !
    Will it decrease ?
    Probably YES !
     
  11. dhoskings

    dhoskings New Member

    Please god, I really hope you are not in charge of anything critical at Petrobras or are you just hidng the FACTS that don't agree with you again?

    http://www.infraero.gov.br/index.ph...-norte/aeroporto-sao-goncalo-do-amarante.html
     
  12. Yes, did I deny a new airports is being constructed ?
    NO.

    But this is a real joke:

    It will be still half the size of North East airports like Salvador, Recife or Fortaleza.
    Nothing big. Just an "interior" Brazilian airport, another one.

    :D:D:D
     
  13. Yes, AND cargo.
    All Brazilian airports are "AND cargo", they receive cargo. All have a cargo terminal.
    Natal receives/send just 20 tons of cargo a day.
    Neigbours like Salvador 77 t/d, Recife 85 t/d and Fortaleza 123 t/d.
    So it's very insignificant.
    And it will stay insignificant after this new (small) airport is concluded (if ever)..

    Sao Paulo Guarulhos - 1230 t/d
    Sao Paulo Campinas - 673 t/d
    Rio de janeiro GIG - 323 t/d

    What a funny story ..... the biggest airport in SA, 6th largest in the world ! :D:D:D

    Hope your client-investors are getting more clever than you (2).
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 25, 2013
  14. It’s a pity that you apparently can’t read/write/speak Portuguese.
    In this case it’s understandable that you write your own articles with your own visions about Brazil. “À base de chute” as we call it. Your main target is to sell property isn’t it, so some sales talk and hype, who cares ! You make the news.

    It’s not allowed to put links here to sites in Portuguese language.
    But we will get there.
    So just because Natal is so close to Europe its airport will be a freight and/or passengers hub ?
    You call this a bright idea ?
    I wonder why the Europeans didn’t have an idea like this. Lisbon the closest city of Europe to SA. They should make a freight hub there. First all the cargo from London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam… goes to Lisbon, there it will be shifted to other airplanes to São Paulo, Rio, Santiago, Buenos Aires, Caracas, Lima….
    No I’m wrong, in case of Brazil, the cargo goes Frankfurt-Lisbon-Natal-Sao Paulo, with 3 different planes, loading, unloading, shifting.. In Natal 100% goes out of the cargo plane, 0,1% stays in Natal and 99,9 % goes further on to Sao Paulo.
    That’s very logic and modern. Really a brilliant idea.

    But what people of the “Consórcio Inframérica”, owners of this new airport São Gonçalo do Amarante think of this ? Or government people ?

    MR.Antônio Droghetti Neto - Consórcio Inframérica:
    Cargo Terminal - “A capacidade é a prevista no edital, 1.800 m², capacidade média, "O terminal atenderá todas as especificações da Anac para um aeroporto de médio porte",”


    = area of the cargo terminal will be 1.800 M2, normal for a medium size airport(in Brazil).
    Yes indeed, medium or even small. The cargo terminal of the airport of the city of Campinas (SP) – Viracopos has an area of 81.000 (81 thousand) M2. 45x as big.

    “O Aeroporto Internacional de São Gonçalo do Amarante não nasce como um grande distribuidor de carga”
    = The new airport wasn’t born to be a big cargo distribution center.

    Mr. Marcelo Perrupato – “Secretaria de Política Nacional de Transportes”
    “o Aeroporto de São Gonçalo do Amarante se destina, mais ao transporte de passageiros do que ao transporte de cargas.”

    =The new airport is basically made for passengers, not for cargo.

    “Se uma carga aérea pode ser transportada direto da Europa para Recife, Fortaleza ou Curitiba é provável que assim seja feito.”
    = If air cargo hás to GO from Europe to Recife, Salvador or Curitiba, it will go there directly

    ““A distância não é a única variável determinante do sucesso operacional e comercial de um empreendimento aeroportuário”, diz Perrupato, referindo-se à vantagem de estar mais próximo do hemisfério norte.”
    = The short distance to the northern hemisphere (Europe) is not a fact that makes the airport a success.

    BNDES - Brazilian Development Bank
    "Seguindo a vocação do Aeroporto Augusto Severo, o Aeroporto de São Gonçalo do Amarante deverá ser predominantemente um aeroporto de passageiros", diz o relatório do BNDES e do Tribunal de Contas da União.”
    = Like the old airport, the new airport will be basicly for passengers.

    Thre are hundreds of sites, papers, interviews busting your myth.
    It started and still is real estate people sales talk.
    For the rest of Brazil, it’s a joke.
    WOW, and the airport will have 8 slots, gate 1-2…8. That’s it, just 8.
     
  15. Understanding numbers.
    One should be very careful with (air) passenger numbers.
    Numbers shown on official websites like the Infraero.
    Most of you (sellers) say, increase in passengers = increase in tourists.
    Telling the buyers: “You see how tourism is booming”.

    Like here: http://www.propertyforum.com/forum/brazil-property/18159-salvador.html

    Very simple thinking this way, nothing of this all.

    Domestic passengers.
    Flights have become very cheap in Brazil, compared to 4-6-8-10 years ago. (prices now are rising again). Result, more Brazilians are taking a plane the last years. And really LOTS of them.
    Most aren’t tourists. More business people.
    But most of all, poor (what is poor ?) people, people from the North East who went to places like São Paulo or Rio for a better future. They were used to take the bus, journeys of 48-72 hours, to visit their family and parents in the North East once a year.
    New they are able to take a plane. If you travel from São Paulo, Rio, BH etc to the NE these days, planes are crowded with people who have never flown before, entire families with children. They are not tourists. But they are millions now every year.

    Internacional passengers.
    From an oficial web site:
    This means.
    Probably an increase of international passengers in Natal is caused by Brazilians traveling abroad. This is true. Brazilians are travelling abroad like crazy. Take a TAP plane from or to Europe, most of the passengers are Brazilians. They are also “international travellers” for the statistics.
    Things are that good as they make you believe.

    Take care when (trying to) reading numbers.
     
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