Bank of England forecasts less severe economic downturn



Active Member
News that the Bank of England is forecasting a less severe economic downturn for the UK, although a prolonged period of recovery, will be welcomed by investors. However, why is it that economic forecasters in the UK always seem to be over pessimistic in the early days of an economic downturn? This over pessimism certainly has an impact on investor confidence and in many ways pessimism can lead to more pessimism, i.e. a self-fulfilling prophecy. Who regulates the likes of the Bank of England and other "official" economic forecasters?



Everyone looks at these new forecasts with relief but what about those investors who made decisions on the initial very depressing forecasts - where do they stand? The Bank of England under Mark Carney had a terrible track record of predicting economic performance, etc. Hopefully the the new team are better!


I would love to see some kind of tracker produced showing what the Bank of England was predicting against what actually happened. While I appreciate forward forecasting of any economy is challenging, the Bank of England seem (in my view) to have got it so wrong so many times over the last few years. I remember the days of Mervyn King, forward forecasting in those days was not that far away.