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Arrivals in January 2008 - Northeast Brazil

Discussion in 'Brazil Property' started by JMBroad, Mar 4, 2008.

  1. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    A while back GW and Surfing offered their opinion that tourism was generally bad in Natal at the moment based on the number of tourists they saw over there during their stay (not sure if Surfing is based in Brazil or not but know GW isn't).

    These are the official figures from Infraero - available to the general public. I just have a month by month and year by year comparative analysis so that I can keep track of growth (positive or negative) with regards to the influx of passengers. I also track a bunch of other information gathered from these sheets but for the purposes of answering the question raised by GW and Surfing, the international and domestic arrivals are the most important figures.

    So without further ado:

    First off, the top 4 (Recife, Salvador, Natal and Fortaleza) represented 83% of all incoming passengers to the Northeast in January 2008. The average remained constant over the past 5 years and they still receive 96% of all international arrivals.

    Natal saw 15% less international arrivals in January 2008 when compared to January 2007. So yes, there was a significantly lower number of international arrivals, which is probably why GW and Surfing said that they noticed less tourists around. On the other hand though, there was a 20% increase in domestic arrivals. As the number of domestic arrivals is by far superior to international arrivals, the end result was an overall increase in passenger arrivals of 13%.

    Just in case you were wondering, Fortaleza grew -6%, Recife showed a positive growth of 20%, Salvador grew -2% and overall the whole of the Northeast showed a positive growth of 3%

    So taking that into consideration we have to ask ourselves why did we see less international arrivals in Natal yet a huge increase in domestic arrivals?

    Here is my opinion -
    Strength of the Real is very likely a good reason - it would explain why less international arrivals are coming - Natal was originally marketed by the tour operators as a cheap and cheerful destination... with the strengthening of the real, those charter flight tourists on budgets are finding their holidays to be more expensive, therefore less appealing. Rather than a sharp drop in tourist arrivals, I believe we are seeing more of an adjustment of charter tourists vs regular flight tourists which can ultimately be benefitial for the real estate market as cheap package charter flight passengers are potentially less likely to buy property than the regular flight tourists. Unfortunately I don't have access to the breakdown of what % of the passengers arrived on charter flights and how many arrived on regular flights to corroborate my theory so it's just an opinion.

    Then again might just be January and in February the numbers will bounce back up again - who knows?

    It would also explain the jump in domestic arrivals as the domestic market gains more strength and more spending power - Salvador and Fortaleza combined showed a loss of 43 thousand domestic arrivals while Natal and Recife combined showed a gain of 100 thousand domestic arrivals.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2008
  2. nigelallen

    nigelallen New Member

    So without further ado:

    First off, the top 4 (Recife, Salvador, Natal and Fortaleza) represented 83% of all incoming passengers to the Northeast in January 2008. The average remained constant over the past 5 years and they still receive 96% of all international arrivals.

    Thanks for that, have you got passenger numbers for each of the 4 big cities
     
  3. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    Yup, dating back all the way to 2003:

    ::. INFRAERO - Aeroportos Brasileiros
     
  4. nigelallen

    nigelallen New Member

    Thanks For That Very Interesting
     
  5. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Let's have a look at this statistical representation. I presume that the object of the exercise is to hopefully talk up NE Brazil.

    Firstly, if 96% of international passengers arrived at Fort/Nat/Sal/Recife....where did the other 4% arrive? Where are the other international airports in NE Brazil that receive international passengers? Please tell me which international carrier (charter or scheduled) arrived at any other airport in the NE than those above.

    Next, until you can compare the actual number of international flights arriving at each airport and the respective increase/decrease, you cannot make a judgement as to the potential profile of that arriving passenger. For example, there may have been less charter flights available in 2007 so therefore "tourists" had to switch to TAP, a scheduled carrier. This doesn't mean that there are businessmen rushing to buy properties in Natal, it means they couldn't get a seat on a cheaper charter flight.

    Next, percentages are very deceptive, it is the stuff of TV Polls. How many international passengers arrived in NE Brazil in 2007? When you have this figure compare it to international arrivals at major EU tourists destinations like Malaga/Faro/Nice etc etc....my guess is that the numbers are minute compared to these places.

    Recife increased by 20% ...this could also mean nothing as it might mean that TAP or some other airline added one flight against the previous year....this means nothing.

    The real issue is how many people arrived (international) when and where and was this total up or down. But look at the numbers v Malaga or Agadir maybe or such locations then one can get a perspective on the real size of this allegedly boom market.
     
  6. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    You are welcome - there is a lot of information on there which is of course open to individual interpretation and is only a tiny part of the research we do to compare the investment potential of different locations.

    I'd be very interested to hear other peoples interpretations of the figures.

    On the same site you have the description of each airport, construction dates, number of flights (although the carriers are often not updated and many are wrong), runway size, cargo space and passenger capacity. You will see if you compare annual passenger capacity to numbers of arrivals that according to their figures, the top 4 are operating at a combined average of 106% of capacity.

    Also, bear in mind that the numbers for international arrivals are the number of people who passed through the international side of the passport controls, so if someone like Ralhpj (assuming he has a residents visa) arrives at any airport in the Northeast, regardless of whether it's a direct or an indirect flight, he'll be counted as a "Domestic" arrival even though he's not a Brazilian citizen. That is probably why Aracajú shows only 4 international arrivals for the yearly figures of 2007.

    Also interesting is that although some people do mention Joao Pessoa, no one on the forums has mentioned Alagoas yet but it seems to be quite popular (although nowhere near as popular as the top 4) with international arrivals - does anyone know anything about that state? Almost all of the arrivals outside of the top four were to Maceió in Alagoas... I've been told they do some charters now and again but couldn't verify this.

    I doubt the figures are 100% correct (or else not a single international passenger flew into Joao Pessoa last year) but they are still representative.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2008
  7. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Birmingham International Airport (BIA) handled 576,130 passengers during January, including 476,507 scheduled passengers and 99,623 charter passengers spread across the two passenger terminals; a decrease of 0.1% over the previous year.
    Source: BIA (BHX) own website.......

    In Jan 2008 Natal handled a total (int+ domestic) 185000 or less than half of Birmingham. Plus Natal is peak season in January, BHX low season. These are the real dimensions. So when people talk of "massive boom" coming in Natal due to a new airport it has a long long way to go to get to Birmingham's figures and is miles and miles away from Malaga or Faro. So the largest airport in South America, when it is built, allegedly in 2010 it might get near to Birmingham's numbers of 2008, (2 years prior).
    People should think about this very carefully when they read websites claiming that Natal will become a huge gateway just because and even if they complete their airport more likely in 2015.
     
  8. deedee1

    deedee1 New Member

    :)Hi all,

    GW- As much as I appreciate where you are coming from you cannot COMPARE NATAL TO ESTABLISHED AIRPORTS IN AN ESTABLISHED AND MATURE MARKET SUCH AS THE EUROPEAN CAPITALS THAT YOUVE GIVEN AS A COMPARISON!!!

    Its like comparing african airports to the USA-It just doesnt work that way!!

    Its simple if the demand wasnt there and they didnt need it then they wouldnt build it!!!

    And also if they really DIDNT NEED IT THEN WHY HAVE THEY SPENT 10 YEARS PLANNING IT AND ARE THEY EVEN CONSIDERING PRIVATISING IT??

    Doesnt make sense???

    Why go to so much time, monay and effort in doing this if they dont have a greater plan and see the bigger picture behind what they are doing???
     
  9. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    They haven't they have said they want an airport and now decided they don't have the money! That's why if it is true, they want an outside tender for it..they don't want to finance it. My take on this is that the whole NE Brazil development plan is a ham fisted development plan which hope that loads of foreigners will come in to pay for this development..then every stage of the way it seems a real mess like reversed planning, Eco worries, false dawns and rumours. A real muddle and this is exactly why people who have been sold down the river with by sophisticated property sellers using well produced and convincing websites which distort the real world that Brazil is, should be very very careful when putting their money into long term projects.

    Put is like this Dee...if this new airport is a dead ccert as claimed by many...why are they only now looking at ways to finance it. How many websites or developers say "there MIGHT be a new airport in Natal"...answer none...why not?
     
  10. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    Now why doesn't that surprise me?

    Comparing Brazilian airports with European cities? heheheh
     
  11. RalphJ

    RalphJ New Member

    Alagoas is the state to the north of me....Sergipe. They have some of, if not the, most beautiful beaches in all of Brazil. Personally I don't like the city very much but as stated....beautiful beaches.

    Maceio has been overrun with Italians lately, as many cities throughout the northeast. Unfortunatel they can be generalized, in my experience and opinion, as sex tourists. And this is not the type of tourism Brazil needs. You can believe me when I say that generally Brazilians absolutely do not like this type of tourist or even investor and normally produces a negative sentiment and/or effect. Places like Fortaleza have become "hot" tourist destinations over the last 5 years or so but generally speaking are not a "class A" type of tourists or investors. Fortaleza is now known as one of the largest destinations in the world for sex tourism. Not exactly the ideal place to bring ones family.
     
  12. Golfingworld

    Golfingworld New Member

    Ralph, there are planeloads of 22 year olds going in their thousands to Ibiza, Falaraki or Torremolinos all looking to get laid and drunk...as much as possible...whether you like it or not Spain and Greece built their tourism industry on these markets. The fact is, and I know as a single man, that there are thousands of Brasilian women who like the attention of "gringos" as it might give them a better life.....the problem lies with the local economy and not those that travel there for a vacation. Except of course those that are seeking things illegal, but again this lies with local law enforcement. If there is an enfermity, it needs to be cut at source rather than treating the symptoms.
     
  13. Celt

    Celt New Member

    I visited Maceio recently and was very impressed. Apart from Italians there are also charters from Argentina and Chile. Most tourists are from SP and Rio however. I did not see any great evidence of sex tourism and there are some good local bars. There is a stunning 10km stretch of beachfront apartment buildings in Maceio overlooking palm tree lined beaches. The city itself is best avoided. I would have no problem taking my family there again. The beaches close to the Maceio are superb.
     
  14. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    Thanks Ralphj and Celt. Interesting to hear such a discrepancy in opinions.
     
  15. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    As I first mentioned, comparing arrivals only is pointless unless we can also compare spend per capita of those arrivals. We know that international arrivals to Natal in Jan and Feb 2008 have decreased by 15.74% (8.000 passengers) but domestic arrivals have increased by 23% (53.500 passengers). But what happened to the spend per capita? Is this shift positive for the region and the real estate market or negative?

    Initially one would assume it is negative. Less international tourists on the ground should relate to less sales. The official reply from the government is that a shift is happening from cheap charter flight tourists who come to the region and fill bags with food from the breakfast buffet to eat on the beach to higher end tourists who will spend more in restaurants and local commerce.

    For example (amounts are exagerated to get my point across):

    1) Ten tourists come to Natal and spend 1 real each in a week = 10 reais

    2) Ten tourists come to Natal and spend 5 reais each in a week = 50 reais

    3) Three tourists come to Natal and spend 1 real each in a week = 3 reais

    4) Three tourists come to Natal and spend 5 reais each in a week = 15 reais

    So for the government, whereas option 2 is the best possible choice, option 4 is better than option 1 or 3 with option 3 being the worst of course. That is assuming that the aforementioned spend is taxed. For tourism related services, it is a matter of much contention which is better? To compare it to popular UK holiday destinations should Natal be a Benidorm style "drink as much beer as you can before you pass out" destination or should it be a carribean type destination? (again using extremes)

    Without being too snooty, I think someone who can afford a little more on their holiday might be inclined to buy property more than someone who can't afford that little bit extra. But that's only my opinion.

    Anyway, with that in mind, this is what was reported regarding Q1 2008 tourism revenue: Diário de Natal Online - Esportes

    Revenue generated by tourism has gone up by 23% for the country. Unfortunately we don't have the numbers for Natal, only for the whole country. Would be interesting to see if the revenue per capita for the state of RN has increased despite the shift.
     
  16. Dotty

    Dotty Banned

    But domestic flights would increaase as you can get a package form the South to the N.E for 1,000 reais flight and hotel and pay 12 times at 80,00 reais per month.But overseas tourism is down because when the tourist actually arrives here if you do not like a beach then there is not much to do and if you plan on taking a walk in the evening then you will see prostitutes hanging and sitting on the bodies of foreign men and young children begging for money now if you fancy some prawns or mexican along Ponta Negra with your family you will come away quite disturbed and not wish to return.
     
  17. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    I was there for a week and didn't see anything that would put me off. Sure, there are many prostitutes around but unless you went into Coco Loco and Azucar on Salsa street they seemed to leave you alone, they didn't harass the group of people I was with. Sure every so often one would come up and smile at one of the single men but a discreet shake of the head was enough for them to walk off.

    Now, as you live there maybe you know a different reality. But we are talking about tourists to Natal and in that respect maybe I'm more qualified to talk about it than you. Because you've been living there so long you may have a very different vision than what someone on holiday for a week would see.

    Running the risk of sounding like one of those "love thy neighbour" annoying spam emails, when I was living in Madeira, I used to jokingly say that although very few crimes were committed, the crime rate in Madeira very high because the amount of ppl that took the lifestyle in Madeira for granted was criminal!

    I used to swim with wild dolphins, manta rays and saw whales and sea lions swimming around on a regular basis and naively thought that was how everyone lived. You get accustomed to the natural beauty which surrounds you and fail to appreciate exactly how special and fortunate you are. Living as you are in Brazil, don't compare lifestyles to Salvador or Argentina, compare it to Peckham or similar. (Never been to Peckham by the way so no offence to anyone - just remember Peckham from the "Only Fools & Horses" series)

    After spending enough time in one place, the traffic starts to bother you, the speed of service tends to bother you. When you are on holiday, those things are brushed off as "cute" because it's a foreign country.

    Again where someone mentioned before. The moment you become unhappy and fail to appreciate the destination, it's a good sign that you may need to move on to a new destination. But you've been there 10 years and (I assume) still enjoy it otherwise you wouldn't still be there.

    After my trip out to Natal I'd quite happily relocate there for a while, just to soak up the natural beauty (and I don't like beaches) - some of the coastlines were literally breathtaking, the service (apart from the hotel) was always friendly and there were more smiling faces walking around than in Marbella, I can tell you that much.
     
  18. Dotty

    Dotty Banned

    Well on Saturday I visited some hotels with plans to organize a party.The balcony prices were 400-750 diario (not particulary cheap)on returning home made some quick phonecalls direct to the hotels and managed to get the same rooms for 190,00 reais,now when a tourist arrives , walk in a hotel and sees an ordinary room (i mean ordinary)in the N.E of Brazil for rediculous rip off prices another wonder they no longer return.I have noticed on the beaches that they have stopped charging clients to sit on their chairs and beer prices are down.Sure sign things not too great here as all proclaim to be!!
     
  19. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    Well that's called yield management. Some hotels employ managers called revenue managers who do nothing but change the prices of hotel rooms during the course of the day. So you could have called back 3 minutes after your first phone call and received a different quote - who knows.

    Next time you are on an airplane, ask the stranger sitting next to you how much they paid for their seat 99.9% chance you will have paid a different amount. Or in some high density tourist locations, the menus in restaurants vary prices according to arrival times, seat locations in restaurants or day of the week.

    400-750 does sound excessive. I would have negotiated that as a tourist too or chosen a different hotel before I flew out. I don't think many tourists would fly over to Brazil then walk in a hotel and ask if they have rooms. I mean to try and fly to Brazil without a hotel reservation, you are probably slightly mad and risk not be allowed in the country at all.
     
  20. JMBroad

    JMBroad New Member

    Oh and "Preços de Balcao" are called "Rack Rates" ;)
     
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