Any emerging markets worth looking at?

Discussion in 'Emerging Property in Europe' started by realdeals, Jul 11, 2017.

  1. realdeals

    realdeals Active Member

    As the UK is looking a little tired at the moment I thought I would look at European emerging markets - any ideas?
     
  2. Sevi

    Sevi New Member

    Specific Locations: both in Bulgaria and Albania
    Reason: Benefits of previous and ongoing structural reforms finally gaining traction in a very low key way within certain segments of the professional working population, leading to improving prospertity, leading to upward pressure on demand in specific real estate segments and locations; invfestment merit of specific locations for specific types of real estate are very attractive; and many ancillary requirements are in place- for example, long term mortgage finance at attractive rates and LTVs.
     
  3. Longterminvestor

    Longterminvestor Administrator

    How were these two countries impacted by the financial crisis? Did the relative banking sectors hold up ok?
     
  4. Sevi

    Sevi New Member

    BG entered the crisis having experienced a bubble boom from foreign residential property investors, combined with various shenanigans in the property sectorof the ex-king returnd as Prime Minister or President. Both cirucmstancs are largely behind BG now. The banking sector at the time was somparatively less impacted then other EU countries, but impactd never-the-less. Now days the foreign banks that came ino BG and are still active are more active and providing services that are more reliable icluding mortgage credits. However these foreign banks have their own problems at home- Unicrdito for example, but in BG the operation is somewhat segregated ad ring fenced, so worst case scenario is that the BG operation would be sold- rather than liquidated etc.


    AL is different- it never had much of a banking sector, and so wasnt greatly impacted by the 2007 banking crisis in that respect. Foreign banks like Raiffeisen and SocGen and many non-bank agri credit and consumer credit providers are active.. Cross border lending providing mortgages to foreigners was available at a standard premium, interest rates about 7-8%, compared to 2-3 % for locals, but I am clarifying whether these cross border mortgages are still on offer.


    Generally, BG bankng resurgence is well underway after the comparatively minor setbacks of 2007, and AL banking is steadily growing a zero starting point.
     
  5. nmb

    nmb Well-Known Member

    Is it too soon to invest in housing in Greece? Personally I think Spain and Portugal offer good value but possibly fall outside the emerging market tag on the post?
     
  6. Sevi

    Sevi New Member

    If we are talking investment merit, Spain in my view has a veery long way to go before sustainable capital appreciation gets underway- there is simply too muc housing stock remaining in bank' repossession portfolios- even when they're giving it away with 110% finance, they cant move it, so not interesting for capital appreciation investment.

    In Portugal the problem is less pronounced, so you wouldneed to compare relative valuations vs other markets, on a property per property basis.

    In terms of life style merits, neither compare in terms of quality with the Eastern Mediterranean. And of course Portugal is an Atlantic coast, which means the weather is less favourable and winds stronger etc,.

    Greece is definitely not too soon to look at- already Greee is benefitting from Russian, Turkish and the usual US and European demand- but if either of the latter surges, there is going to be an upward tick in prices. Most fo the discounting finally began to occur in the last year or so, but hasnt been ongoing for very long, and it perhaps may not- Greece is relatively expensive, no doubt- but with good reason- it offers one key facet of investment merit essential to every really good porerty investment- and that is the ability to source truly unique properties- for a variety of reasons, not least being that for the most part, most of the islads are distimctly different in many differnt respeccts- peoples, cultures, foods, economies- it's almost as if they are each separate little countires- ok they are not as different as the different countries in Europe are to one another, but they are certainly more different than each of the states in the US are to one another. And many of the mindsets on these islands are first as independent islanders, and second as Greeks. Many of the islanders have tbeen to Piraeus/athens, but most have never been to ANY neighboring islands. History played a role- for example many of the Dodecanese spend long periods as domains of Genoese, Veneitioans, chevaulier orders, etc. You have to know the islands and Greece well to appreciate this, but once you do, there isnt much question,

    Add to this the limitations on new supply coming onto the market whcih can depress capital appreciation potential- in Greece it is difficult to get new supply onto the market- not just because of present economic austerity, but becaue of the maddening hold-over of un-modernised bureacracy from ottoman times, and the high costs of building materials, their transportation etc. as a friend who has sailed th islands for decades remarked to me- 'it's amzing, nothing has changed her for the last 30 years...it's still the same...'

    Finally the geographical attributes of the Islands are both uniqus and exquisite, as is the historical dimensions of the cultural antiquity evident everywhere...Yes Greee is relatively and comparatively expensive, but justifiably so, which is especially important for tope end purchases, because its the unique differentiation of property that commands the pricing premium at the tope end of the proeprty market.

    Yes Greece is definitely worth putting on your radar screen and following, because it will take time to find wehat you want and transact the business, so begin now...
     
  7. diyhelp

    diyhelp Active Member

    I agree with all of your comments about Greece - there is an old stock market saying "when everyone is selling, it is nearly time to buy". I also find it a little ironic that the EU are arguing with the UK about leaving, etc when surely they should be concentrating on getting their own house in order, including Greece.

    Even though some headline house prices in Greece might look relatively expensive I would guess there is still some scope for negotiation? Even though we are unlikely to see massive growth in the economy, or housing market, of Greece in the short term, I have a feeling house prices wont go too much lower. Might we look on this as an opportunity missed in years to come?
     
  8. michael1978

    michael1978 Member

    How about Romania property? Any idea when prices wil go really down?
     
  9. Once it has been announced it is probably too late, but what about future new entrants to the EU? I read somewhere that there is a new batch of members on the way. Historically they have been given massive financial assistance to help their economies, bring regs up to date and basically bribe them to join the growing super-power which is the EU lol

    Which countries are next to join?
     
  10. Marinaki

    Marinaki New Member

    Never :)) I am watching Romanian market 4 years now and I did the stupid thing not to buy then, based on rumors "the market will go down" bla bla bla! Now, an apartment that 4 years a go was 50K is 100k and going up! I am talking about cities, not countryside!
     
  11. michael1978

    michael1978 Member

    Yeah, I know what you mean, I did this 10 years ago, waited too long and never bought one to this day. But now I hear that in a year, a year and a half they wil go down by at least 20%. Was wondering if anyone knows if this is true.
     
  12. Marinaki

    Marinaki New Member

    Are you kidding me? No way! Bucharest is in full expansion and the other cities too. There are zero chances for the prices to go down :)
     
  13. michael1978

    michael1978 Member

    Ok, let's see, we'll post here again in 1 year :). And ok, maybe not Bucharest 20%, even though it is saturated but I mean other cities like Timisoara, Sibiu
     
  14. Marinaki

    Marinaki New Member

    Yeaaah, I don;t believe that but we will see :)
     
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