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2009 Prediction

Discussion in 'Dubai property' started by georgihh, Dec 4, 2008.

  1. georgihh

    georgihh New Member

    1.Flippers are gone
    2.Nobody buys off plan
    3.Developer first builds after that sells
    4.Prices to be based on 10% rental return
    5.Home loans will be available at 9-10% per year interest and up to 85%
    6.No more flats without title deed can be sold
    7.By the end of the year the demand will start growing up again and we might see another bubble
  2. AbraCadabra

    AbraCadabra New Member

    Agree with some of the predictions but you cheated.. thats 6 predictions masqurading as 7 ... Nos 2 and 3 are the same (nobody buys off plan = developer first builds after than sells). ;)
  3. zombie

    zombie New Member

    Don't think too many new completed properties will come into the market in 2009, large govt developers are struggling for cash & most of the smaller ones are almost bust.

    As long as rental demand remains strong, i.e. 6-7% (Still better than world markets), rental prices may stablize to 2006 levels.

    Mortgage will be harder to get, with the inject of capital from Abu Dhabi may see newer more innovative mortgage schemes.

    I don't think investors have short memory spans, The big boys of the investment world are all recovering slowly after a lot of money has been poured in, bubble talks are too premature.
  4. Sean@Phuket

    [email protected] New Member

    Riches, Riches and more Riches !!!
  5. gohar

    gohar New Member


    Referring to your article on your take of the 2009 prediction for the Dubai, What is your advice for an individual that has an off-plan property is it better to sell under the current market condition i.e. 0/-5 premium or hold on to it until end of 2009 or even until it has completed, if possible?

    Thanks for your quick reply.
  6. Sean@Phuket

    [email protected] New Member

    That could depend on your own situation ...

    Firstly, how are your finances right now? Do you need to cash in? If not it may be a good idea to hold onto it and make the profit you intended in the first place just a little later ...

    Secondly, how is your developer? Is the company safe during these uneasy times? Are they propped up on loans? If the developers are having problems of there own then it may be a good idea to sell ...
  7. georgihh

    georgihh New Member

    Depends what have you got and if the developer is reliable
    If you trust your developer that will finish the project on time and is not going to increase the price during the construction keep it.
    If you have a small doubt that the price is extraordinary or the developer will start playing games sell it
  8. gohar

    gohar New Member

    First of all many thanks for your reply and forthcoming advice!
    FYI: The developer is Nakheel and the project is called Alfurjan. I have heard that Nakheel may have minor cashflow problems and that some of the existing projects will be put on hold or stopped...on their website the list did not include Alfurjan, for the moment anyways. Normally Nakheel, from my experience is a reliable and trustworthy developer.

    With this additional information provided please advice on the path forward, if possible.

    Thanks In Advance for your quick reply.
  9. Propy

    Propy New Member


    [ame=""]YouTube - Dubais Record High Tower[/ame]
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2008
  10. sasherwani2

    sasherwani2 New Member

    AlFurjan is not a keeper! SELL IT!!

    This project shall be delayed! Bigtime. Furjan to Nakheel is what Warsan is to Emaar. They dont want to go ahead with these projects but dont want to cancel them either because a) They will lose the deposits given by the investors b) It will tarnish their image and credibility

    Thats my opinion rest is upto you.
  11. albog

    albog New Member

    I also agree with that.
    And that goes for any masterplanned project that's not already well underway, sell, run and never look back! Unless you're willing to take a massive risk.

    Basically the only areas I think are worth it are the marina, jlt, burj dubai, business bay (but watch out and make sure there is good progress in the specific building) and probably silicon oasis where a lot has been built. Any area that's still largely a pile of sand I wouldn't touch.
  12. TommyC

    TommyC New Member

    As for the claims that Dubai has big reserves of money to fall back upon, please remember that Abu Dhabi has 94% of the crude oil production of the UAE. This possibly means that Dubai in itself may be facing serious problems right now, no matter what they say, and the one to help them out is Abu Dhabi/UAE. What this would affect is another story (rumours about Abu Dhabi buying large shares of Emirates Airlines, Dubai Holding etc.). All in all, pride is preventing a lot of the progress that could be made in this country in several areas.
  13. Arno Salzl

    Arno Salzl New Member

    I quote: "AlFurjan is not a keeper! SELL IT!! This project shall be delayed! Bigtime. Furjan to Nakheel is what Warsan is to Emaar. They dont want to go ahead with these projects but dont want to cancel them either because a) They will lose the deposits given by the investors b) It will tarnish their image and credibility. Thats my opinion rest is upto you."

    In your list, not one villas/ townhouses project!

    In Al Furjan, townhouses were sold for 1050 - 1150/sqft and are available for 0 premium now, it's far from the Warsan prices!

    Al Gahdeer by Sorouh at Dubai/AD border was sold at incredible 1400/sqft? Construction has started now (Sorouh have enough cash). Do you think resale prices will stay at original price level, not below?
  14. sasherwani2

    sasherwani2 New Member

    I would like to see Sorouh's balance sheet before I'd believe that Sorouh has enough cash. I dont agree personally that they have enough cash to sustain the projects without selling them offplan and progressing according to the payments received. Offplan, however, is dead.
  15. ngn97141

    ngn97141 New Member

    Ok villas/townhouses will always be in demand. It all depends on the OP U PAID AND THE PHASE U BOUGHT IT IN. Al Furjan phase 1 was an incredible buy. If u have one at op hold it, dont sell. Opportunity cost might be lost for a bit, but if ur gonna lose a chunk of money by reselling it dont bother. Its one of the last developments on Sheikh Zayed Rd. True dat u can buy a ready 3E/3M in springs for lesser than 3M now and afaik furjan townhouses are similar to springs so dont expect more than 3Million on completion for them. I honestly think a Springs 3E/3M will not be worth more than 2.5 Million when prices stabilize.. so do the math and take a chance. Wait a bit till mortgage opens up and u might get abt 3 Million for ur furjan.
    As fas as Surouh is concerned its been mostly bought by locals and in bulk. Yes surouh has a lot of money and is backed up by AD Govt. Not much to worry abt there as well.
  16. HaiderAli

    HaiderAli Member

    Sell it... But how? Are there still buyers around..?

    Forgive me, if this sounds amateur.
  17. georgihh

    georgihh New Member

    Buyers are waiting for the prices to fall down a little bit more.
    Another drop of 15-20% and the market will be flooded with buyers again.
  18. HaiderAli

    HaiderAli Member

    How about now?

    What if someone wants to sell it now? Are there no buyers? And what is the conventional selling procedure.. ? Who to contact? Thanks for your quick reply... Hoping the same again.

    To everyone:
    One more thing, what can be the worse scenario in case of investments?? The projects get delayed and all that what else can happen? I mean, developer just running away or something like that? Possible? Or is it safe in that regards atleast... And what do you think the maximum drop will be considering the current prices..?
  19. HaiderAli

    HaiderAli Member

    Can someone please reply to my last concern? Thank you very much in advance.
  20. zombie

    zombie New Member

    The only way to know for sure if there are buyers, would be to put the property in the market,

    As regards the sales process, one would imagine properties with title deed, one goes to a court, draws up the agreement of sale/purchase, also takes an appointment with RERA for transfer of title deed on payment of fees & transfer of funds at the same time.

    THe project have & will be delayed in the future as well, with the govt developers if you keep to the payment schedule then the likely hood of losing your money is minimal, the project will be made, but deliverys will also be much later than advertised.

    Private developers the ball is in the air, ask investes of Dubai Lagoons of Jumeirah Village south, having in some cases paid 70% with NO consrtuction to date in the last 2 some years.

    AS regards falling property prices, when established markets like Hongkong & Singapore see prices drop 80% from their peak, one has no idea how deep it can go in dubai.

    I keep saying to all look at investing dubai over 15 years, then you will truly realise good profits, one we can ride the crest of the next boom, we all know now, that when it seems like the markets are going crazy with hyperinflation its time to cash in before the quiet sets in like now.
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