Brazil: Hotspot Or Not..?????

Brazil: Hotspot Or Not..?????

  • Hotspot

    Votes: 23 92.0%
  • Not

    Votes: 2 8.0%

  • Total voters
    25
Status
Not open for further replies.
N

nickohorny

New Member
I believe he adores Brazil, with the extensive research, the constant holidays!!

which Is why i dont understand why he wont buy there, regardless of investment return, for you sir i see it being a pure investment for your long term, never to sell even? To have as your holiday home.

You are flying there alot according to your posts? if your passion lies there, buy anyway and if there is no boom, what have you lost? you love the place dont you?!? its yours!

:confused:
 
G

Golfingworld

New Member
Dee, no I haven't bought, no I would never ever buy off plan unless I saw some foundations, bricks and mortar, especially 5000 miles away! I'd never buy anything without visiting, seeing the location, the terrain, the logistics. I wouldn't believe a word an Agent told me, least of all one who had never been there themselves, (many haven't). I wouldn't buy on the strength of a computer generated image, I wouldn't buy unless I was sure I could get there, reasonably easily and cheaply. Brazil is administratively your worst nightmare. The language is complex as they don't even speak the same Portuguese as the Portuguese. The mentality is wonderful but not conducive to Anglo Saxon organised thinking. The country is awsome, the women are beautiful, the music is great, the beaches out of this world. It is far removed from European and Middle Eastern agro. It is what Spain and Portugal was 30 years ago and it is cheap. But and it is a big but, nothing in life is easy and that is why it is cheap..you get what you pay for in life. And when you buy off plan, you take some of that agro away, that is why these developements are not cheap and are over priced in relation to the difficulties you can encounter. Anyone who thinks they are sheltering from those difficulties by going into a development is fooling themselves and because they are paying a price for that, it comes off their eventual profit. It's a simple equation. You build your own house and it's cheaper than someone building it for you, less hassle but less profit. The key analysis is how much less will the profit be and how much less agro will you encounter. If you want a place for a holiday and cover your costs, maybe, maybe it is worthwhile...but I think it is entirely dillusional to think that buying these developments at the price they are offered will bring short or even long term capital gain. Does that help? What I see on here and also hear elsewhere is that many people who have bought or are considering buying have never even been there, nor, so it seems do they intend to go there before they buy. You can tell this from some of the questions asked as if they had been there then they wouldn't have to ask the questions. My mission is to throw out all the negatives and see what comes back..if I am overwhelmed with reasons why my negatives are wrong, then I might convince myself that my hunch is correct. But, a lot of what has come back has been self justification of the hype, trying to justify facts and alleged benefits which are just not true. All these sellers have put together a package of reasons why everyone is onto a winner, it is their job to do so. Mine is to say, "ok convince me and I might invest". How much credibility does a seller of a product have if the facts and benefits he puts out are proven to be "exaggerated" to say the least. Back to the big four....the airport won't be open in 2009, there aren't regular easy and cheap flights there, it is extremely difficult to get a bank account, the economic movement seems good but it is nowhere near as guaranteed as the claims being made. Take all those factors into consideration and the question is...."is it a good investment, is it as easy as it seems, can I afford it and do I want to do it"? You pays your money and......................
 
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B

beenthere

Guest
Dee, no I haven't bought, no I would never ever buy off plan unless I saw some foundations, bricks and mortar, especially 5000 miles away! I'd never buy anything without visiting, seeing the location, the terrain, the logistics. I wouldn't believe a word an Agent told me, least of all one who had never been there themselves, (many haven't). I wouldn't buy on the strength of a computer generated image, I wouldn't buy unless I was sure I could get there, reasonably easily and cheaply. Brazil is administratively your worst nightmare. The language is complex as they don't even speak the same Portuguese as the Portuguese. The mentality is wonderful but not conducive to Anglo Saxon organised thinking. The country is awsome, the women are beautiful, the music is great, the beaches out of this world. It is far removed from European and Middle Eastern agro. It is what Spain and Portugal was 30 years ago and it is cheap. But and it is a big but, nothing in life is easy and that is why it is cheap..you get what you pay for in life. And when you buy off plan, you take some of that agro away, that is why these developements are not cheap and are over priced in relation to the difficulties you can encounter. Anyone who thinks they are sheltering from those difficulties by going into a development is fooling themselves and because they are paying a price for that, it comes off their eventual profit. It's a simple equation. You build your own house and it's cheaper than someone building it for you, less hassle but less profit. The key analysis is how much less will the profit be and how much less agro will you encounter. If you want a place for a holiday and cover your costs, maybe, maybe it is worthwhile...but I think it is entirely dillusional to think that buying these developments at the price they are offered will bring short or even long term capital gain. Does that help? What I see on here and also hear elsewhere is that many people who have bought or are considering buying have never even been there, nor, so it seems do they intend to go there before they buy. You can tell this from some of the questions asked as if they had been there then they wouldn't have to ask the questions. My mission is to throw out all the negatives and see what comes back..if I am overwhelmed with reasons why my negatives are wrong, then I might convince myself that my hunch is correct. But, a lot of what has come back has been self justification of the hype, trying to justify facts and alleged benefits which are just not true. All these sellers have put together a package of reasons why everyone is onto a winner, it is their job to do so. Mine is to say, "ok convince me and I might invest". How much credibility does a seller of a product have if the facts and benefits he puts out are proven to be "exaggerated" to say the least. Back to the big four....the airport won't be open in 2009, there aren't regular easy and cheap flights there, it is extremely difficult to get a bank account, the economic movement seems good but it is nowhere near as guaranteed as the claims being made. Take all those factors into consideration and the question is...."is it a good investment, is it as easy as it seems, can I afford it and do I want to do it"? You pays your money and......................
So is Brazil good or bad golfdork???

Is it like spain and portugal 30 years ago, anyone who bought in those countries then made a killing (yes there has been a slow down in Spain, but that won't last forever, it was the expectation that prices will continue going up by 20% year in year out that caused demand to drop, so now it has turned into a mature property market with normal cycles.)

Because business is complex to do there, property is cheap as you say, but then later on you say property is too expensive because someone makes life easier for you to buy over there when you buy off-plan???

As usual you cannot make a coherent argument again ......
 
G

Golfingworld

New Member
it was the expectation that prices will continue going up by 20% year in year out that caused demand to drop

Bingo..well spotted mate.....you are clearly much more coherent than me and thankfully for all you have said it all yourself!
 
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G

Golfingworld

New Member
Mr BDIGTTS,
but then later on you say property is too expensive because someone makes life easier for you to buy over there when you buy off-plan???

As usual you cannot make a coherent argument again ......


Correct, and if you buy expensive and it doesn't go up much or at all, you have what is known in laymans terms "as a loss". If you'd like someone more coherent than me to explain that to you..rent a car, drive from Alicante to Malaga and knock on a few doors with "se vende" or "se alquilar" (or both) on the balcony and ask them to explain to you. If you don't speak Spanish its simple, those with both signs, roughly translated it means "give me anything, get me out of here"!
 
B

beenthere

Guest
Mr BDIGTTS,
but then later on you say property is too expensive because someone makes life easier for you to buy over there when you buy off-plan???

As usual you cannot make a coherent argument again ......


Correct, and if you buy expensive and it doesn't go up much or at all, you have what is known in laymans terms "as a loss". If you'd like someone more coherent than me to explain that to you..rent a car, drive from Alicante to Malaga and knock on a few doors with "se vende" or "se alquilar" (or both) on the balcony and ask them to explain to you. If you don't speak Spanish its simple, those with both signs, roughly translated it means "give me anything, get me out of here"!
I knew you would tell me to drive in a car in Spain. GolfDork's official stats at work again....how about using real stats????

So all those people who bought in Spain 30 years ago have lost money have they??? Some of them probably bought a villa for 10k€ or 20k€, so assuming they sell at 50% below current market value, that makes a profit of 1000% or 2000%. You just said Brazil is like Spain or Portugal 30 years ago.......

The only people who have lost money are people who overextended themselves and/or couldn't afford to complete on their off-plan apartments, they are the ones desperate to get out at any cost.

As usual you cannot make a coherent argument again ......

P.S. it is "se aquilla" not "se alquilar"
 
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B

beenthere

Guest
The language is complex as they don't even speak the same Portuguese as the Portuguese. The mentality is wonderful but not conducive to Anglo Saxon organised thinking.

Oh i nearly forgot, since when do Brazilians speak a more complex version of Portuguese than the Portuguese themselves, show me a Brazilian and a Portuguese who can't understand each other.
I can understand a Brazilian much easier than a Portuguese native and I only speak Spanish.

Stop lying GolfDork.
 
G

Golfingworld

New Member
My friend, you are quite right, only those who over extended themselves, couldn't afford it or bought at the wrong price lost or will lose money. But, one fatal assumption, which is that prices don't always rise and it is a dangerous assumption that because "you are in early" in Brazil (or any other market) it will automatically follow the same pattern as elsewhere. Spain is not a "mature" market it is in meltdown. They build more houses than the rest of Europe put together which over supplied the demand and it was the sheer naivity of people that thought it would continue rising as ever before, that accelerated this collapse. The whole "overseas/off plan" property market whereever it may be, works on one premise and one premise only, that is "prices will be higher for the next phase and so you have already made money". A new facet of rental guarantee has been introduced to this equation, very cleverly, in an attempt to comfort buyers to think that in the first years the running costs are covered. But, how many people would buy if they thought or were told "prices might not rise for the next 5 years" and "we cannot guarantee that the next phase will be more expensive than yours!"
So, the concept has to be sold on rising prices otherwise the concept doesn't work. Why, because they are selling thin air with a vision of huge profits in years to come. The problem arises, when for whatever reason the market slows down, as then buyers for phase 2/3/4 realise that it is cheaper to buy a 2nd hand phase 1, than a new phase 2 or 3. This creates a downwards spiral which developers have tried to address by upgrading the specs. They can't discount because they told phase 1 that phase 2 would be more expensive and they told phase 2 that phase 3 would be more expensive too! And so it goes on. Now, if you have pots of money and like the view, you don't care, but if you don't then you have a problem...why because you thought you were going to make a shxx load of money for nothing and that's why you got yourself an interest only mortgage. This is when the pyramid starts to collapse. Why, because prices were artificially inflated beyond real market values and real market demand and the two met in the middle like like an earthquake. How does this affect Brazil you will ask me? Firstly as I have seen prices that are already above local market property values so in my view the artificial "stoking up" has started early. This is being justified by "build quality" as it was by "increased spec" in Spain in the later stages, but the premise is the same...create a distorted market rather than by basic economic theories. This is the very key to this debate is whether it is a hotspot or not and and prices I have seen for some new developments ..no. In fact, it is more risky than Spain for all the reasons I have outlined. Yes, you can get in early and you can get lucky. But do you think Richard Branson just saw a picture of an aeroplane, put a deposit down and went on to mak billions. No he didn't, he worked 50 hours a week for 20 years and slowly built his empire. If he or anyone else could easily do it by putting down a few deposits in Guatamala, don't you think he and millions like it would have done that instead of slogging their guts out for years and years? As I said earlier, if it was as easy at that none of us would need to work would we? Hopefully this is reasonably coherent for you?
 
G

Golfingworld

New Member
P.S. it is "se aquilla" not "se alquilar"

You'll be able to understand the Spanish investors in trouble as well then!
 
N

nigelallen

New Member
My friend, you are quite right, only those who over extended themselves, couldn't afford it or bought at the wrong price lost or will lose money. But, one fatal assumption, which is that prices don't always rise and it is a dangerous assumption that because "you are in early" in Brazil (or any other market) it will automatically follow the same pattern as elsewhere. Spain is not a "mature" market it is in meltdown. They build more houses than the rest of Europe put together which over supplied the demand and it was the sheer naivity of people that thought it would continue rising as ever before, that accelerated this collapse. The whole "overseas/off plan" property market whereever it may be, works on one premise and one premise only, that is "prices will be higher for the next phase and so you have already made money". A new facet of rental guarantee has been introduced to this equation, very cleverly, in an attempt to comfort buyers to think that in the first years the running costs are covered. But, how many people would buy if they thought or were told "prices might not rise for the next 5 years" and "we cannot guarantee that the next phase will be more expensive than yours!"
So, the concept has to be sold on rising prices otherwise the concept doesn't work. Why, because they are selling thin air with a vision of huge profits in years to come. The problem arises, when for whatever reason the market slows down, as then buyers for phase 2/3/4 realise that it is cheaper to buy a 2nd hand phase 1, than a new phase 2 or 3. This creates a downwards spiral which developers have tried to address by upgrading the specs. They can't discount because they told phase 1 that phase 2 would be more expensive and they told phase 2 that phase 3 would be more expensive too! And so it goes on. Now, if you have pots of money and like the view, you don't care, but if you don't then you have a problem...why because you thought you were going to make a shxx load of money for nothing and that's why you got yourself an interest only mortgage. This is when the pyramid starts to collapse. Why, because prices were artificially inflated beyond real market values and real market demand and the two met in the middle like like an earthquake. How does this affect Brazil you will ask me? Firstly as I have seen prices that are already above local market property values so in my view the artificial "stoking up" has started early. This is being justified by "build quality" as it was by "increased spec" in Spain in the later stages, but the premise is the same...create a distorted market rather than by basic economic theories. This is the very key to this debate is whether it is a hotspot or not and and prices I have seen for some new developments ..no. In fact, it is more risky than Spain for all the reasons I have outlined. Yes, you can get in early and you can get lucky. But do you think Richard Branson just saw a picture of an aeroplane, put a deposit down and went on to mak billions. No he didn't, he worked 50 hours a week for 20 years and slowly built his empire. If he or anyone else could easily do it by putting down a few deposits in Guatamala, don't you think he and millions like it would have done that instead of slogging their guts out for years and years? As I said earlier, if it was as easy at that none of us would need to work would we? Hopefully this is reasonably coherent for you?
Golf world, excellent post, people would do well to listen to what you say, Thank God for people like you,
if your comments have persuaded just one person to stop and think and do some real research you have done a great job,

Nigel
 
D

deedee1

New Member
Re: Prices!!

:)Hi all,

GW- I completely understand what you are saying but you cant keep comparing it to spain!!

I am half spanish and the moral of the story is that anyone who had invested or bought in the past 3 years would have been the ones to suffer the most!
As they would have predicted that PROPERTIES WOULD HAVE CARRIED ON RISING AND MOST WOULD HAVE NOT THOUGHT THAT THIS DECLINE WOULD EVER HAPPEN ESPECIALLY TO SPAIN!!

I have known for at least 2 years now that this slow down and decline was coming- not by hearsay but looking at the state of the economy and that spain would not be able to sustain that kind of growth for ever with the excessive ammount of property and supply and the decline in buyers and tourists!!!
The signs were there 2 years ago coupled with the fact that the spaniards new this before anyone else and when they stop buying- you know that theres a problem coming!!!
Im even spanish and went back there a few months ago- The 1st time in 14 years and I was ABSOLUTELY HORRIFIED WITH WHAT I SAW and upset by the fact that it was unrecognisable!!
Blocks of flats ontop of each other graffiti everywhere, littered streets, metal scap yards every corner you looked!!
The spanish culture and land has been stamped on and ruined!!
My country not what I remeber it and it has been completely spoiled and become a haven for chavy brits!!!
I would never consider going back now- The spanish dream has been lost!!


Brazil is not spain yet!! IT IS A NEW FRESH MARKET THAT HAS ROOM FOR EXPANSION AT A QUARTER OF THE PRICE OF SPAIN!!

Property hunters are in fact looking at new markets, further afield at prices that THEY CAN AFFORD- not what the local market can afford!!

Like youve said you are paying the low prices at the moment because the market is not yet astablished and has a long way to go in or if it becomes a mature market- THATS WHY ITS CHEAP!!!:D

You know as well as I do that once a market is mature the prices have already sky-rocketed AS the economy and infrastructure is deemed stable
AND WHEN THAT HAPPENS- YOU KNOW THAT ITS ALREADY TOO LATE!!!:eek:

See ya D
 
B

beenthere

Guest
My friend, you are quite right, only those who over extended themselves, couldn't afford it or bought at the wrong price lost or will lose money. But, one fatal assumption, which is that prices don't always rise and it is a dangerous assumption that because "you are in early" in Brazil (or any other market) it will automatically follow the same pattern as elsewhere. Spain is not a "mature" market it is in meltdown. They build more houses than the rest of Europe put together which over supplied the demand and it was the sheer naivity of people that thought it would continue rising as ever before, that accelerated this collapse. The whole "overseas/off plan" property market whereever it may be, works on one premise and one premise only, that is "prices will be higher for the next phase and so you have already made money". A new facet of rental guarantee has been introduced to this equation, very cleverly, in an attempt to comfort buyers to think that in the first years the running costs are covered. But, how many people would buy if they thought or were told "prices might not rise for the next 5 years" and "we cannot guarantee that the next phase will be more expensive than yours!"
So, the concept has to be sold on rising prices otherwise the concept doesn't work. Why, because they are selling thin air with a vision of huge profits in years to come. The problem arises, when for whatever reason the market slows down, as then buyers for phase 2/3/4 realise that it is cheaper to buy a 2nd hand phase 1, than a new phase 2 or 3. This creates a downwards spiral which developers have tried to address by upgrading the specs. They can't discount because they told phase 1 that phase 2 would be more expensive and they told phase 2 that phase 3 would be more expensive too! And so it goes on. Now, if you have pots of money and like the view, you don't care, but if you don't then you have a problem...why because you thought you were going to make a shxx load of money for nothing and that's why you got yourself an interest only mortgage. This is when the pyramid starts to collapse. Why, because prices were artificially inflated beyond real market values and real market demand and the two met in the middle like like an earthquake. How does this affect Brazil you will ask me? Firstly as I have seen prices that are already above local market property values so in my view the artificial "stoking up" has started early. This is being justified by "build quality" as it was by "increased spec" in Spain in the later stages, but the premise is the same...create a distorted market rather than by basic economic theories. This is the very key to this debate is whether it is a hotspot or not and and prices I have seen for some new developments ..no. In fact, it is more risky than Spain for all the reasons I have outlined. Yes, you can get in early and you can get lucky. But do you think Richard Branson just saw a picture of an aeroplane, put a deposit down and went on to mak billions. No he didn't, he worked 50 hours a week for 20 years and slowly built his empire. If he or anyone else could easily do it by putting down a few deposits in Guatamala, don't you think he and millions like it would have done that instead of slogging their guts out for years and years? As I said earlier, if it was as easy at that none of us would need to work would we? Hopefully this is reasonably coherent for you?
Go on golfdork, tell me about "basic economic theories", I don't see you applying them anywhere in your incoherent arguments.....
 
R

robh

Administrator
Staff member
Premium Member
Absolutely, it is a forum and it should do what it says on the tin, be an open forum. What we are now seeing is the flow of comment is starting to find a level as both negatives and common sense have been introduced to the self congratulory "haven't we done well to buy in Brazil" tone that seemed prevalent. This is not so important for the active members (whatever their view) but for the outsiders looking in and debating if they want to invest there. The key issue here and it has been my objective is to put those who are "talking up" the location under serious cross examination. The jury then decides if they are guilty or not.

(I have been there at NYE and I have never seen so many people in the streets, accommodation at that time must be booked well in advance and minimum stay is 5 nights.)

The above quote is a good example of "talking up". I was in Natal last December Christmas and also in February, both peak season. I walked out of one hotel and walked into another 3 days before Xams..not only that they gave me a discount as they had plenty of rooms free. In February, when I went back I could have chosen from one of a dozen hotel and/or pousadas all vying for my business. Last winter was their worst tourist season for some years. But there are more than enough large "all inclusive hotels" on the Via Costiera and Pousadas...too many. The SERS Hotel in Costeira is one of the main UK Thomson All inclusive resorts...it was half empty both Christmas week and in February. How do I know, we gave a lift home to someone who works there and went in there ouselves..it was deserted! I paid less than £300 to get their in February with Thomson, why because they were dumping seats as they couldn't sell them. There was still 6/7 free seats on the aircraft. So one flight only ex UK, 350 people max, peak Natal tourist season and Thomson dump seats. Please tell me how this is going to persuade them to divert their new 787's away from Dominican Republic or Orlando?
Hi GolfingWorld,

I do believe I addressed your accusations that I was lying about NYE, so how about an apology?

Regards,
Rob.
 
G

Golfingworld

New Member
Robh, tell me anywhere in the world that isn't full on New Years Eve? How about apologising for making such a ridiculous assertion that Natal is a boom town because it was full on New years Eve?
 
R

robh

Administrator
Staff member
Premium Member
Robh, tell me anywhere in the world that isn't full on New Years Eve? How about apologising for making such a ridiculous assertion that Natal is a boom town because it was full on New years Eve?
I did actually say that it was the 5 days over NYE when Pipa village, which is just south of Natal, was full for that whole time.

The reason why we sell a lot of property there is because it has a mature and busy rental market, a good history of sales (i.e. a history of property value increases) plus new development there is restricted as a lot of areas are protected forest and the town has strict building codes.

So in our opinion we consider this place to be well worth investing in.
 
J

JMBroad

New Member
Oh i nearly forgot, since when do Brazilians speak a more complex version of Portuguese than the Portuguese themselves, show me a Brazilian and a Portuguese who can't understand each other.
I can understand a Brazilian much easier than a Portuguese native and I only speak Spanish.
Basically the same language. If anything Brazilian is less complex. Can basically compare it to American and English. Some towns or cities might have a hard time understanding each others accents but the language remains the same, with minor spelling differences.
 
M

Mark1

New Member
Love your posts Golfingworld, makes me laugh! Not sure why people get so offended by your points of view though, but it def makes a good read, and you have stirred up a good debate. I think it is good to see the risks rather than just the constant hype.
I personaly like Natal and have also invested in the North, so obviously I hope the area does boom over the next few years.
I have also recently visited the area and loved it. But I am probably guilty of buying with my heart rather than just an invesment.
 
D

deedee1

New Member
:) Hi mark,

Welcome to the forum!

We do appreciate a good debate also and hes definately provided us with that and livened it up a bit! :D

Just started a thread called brazil pictures to share with us and also another one called brazil inspection trips!

Would appreciate it if you could add your experiences of visiting brazil and also post some pictures from your trip on the other thread if possible!

Thankyou take care-D :)
 
Y

yeboahconstrictor

New Member
Brazil

Hi all,

I've also dipped into the Brazil market - I'm confident that it's a sound med/long term inveestment though there are potential pitfalls as already stated in this thread. I've reserved a 2-bed in Fortaleza, some land (with p permission) near Salvador and I'm about to move ahead with elegance grand natal golf.

I'm putting a lot of faith in this market - I'm not incredibly wealthy by any stretch so I need it to work. I've also specualted in the Malaysian market with a unit on the golden palm and Banyan Curve. More established, I've got a couple of 2 bed in Paphos that have done very nicely in the last 3/4 years.

I have been looking at Egypt as well, looks very very cheap so need to do hellavu lot more DD but at that price (with decent payment terms) its not a massive gamble.

My money is stretched so one of the above may have to give - if you had to choose Banyan Curve (at pre launch) or elegance GNG (at current prices) what would you go for??

Cheers
YeboC
 
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